S&P 500 Views and Trading

[PivoTTurner]

Quote from Spectre2007:

chinese brokerage account openings has slowed down to half of what it was last month.

and some of the public was interviewed, and they are waiting to sell off their loosing positions from the recent downturn to breakeven.

edit: since most equity markets are legalized pyramid schemes, once you start loosing the next tier of buyers, the tiers who have holdings are stuck at inflated prices. And if you can't short the market, selling the holdings is the next best thing, since your locking in a price historically will never be seen for a few years.

I think Chinese Market will hold above 4000 level firmly for some reasons. Today Chinese Shars open up more than 2.5% after government made no announcement oaver the weekend concerning measure to slow down economy.

I know Chinese market very well. And after Feb 27, US market tried its best to not trade with same pace as Chinese market, ie, China market up, US market might down, China Market down, US market might up, that might be the reason for ES to stay here.

 

[PivoTTurner]

10:00pm, only 3 minutes, Hong Kong stock market opens, which should follow Japan and China.

Till now, the eastern market showed strong up sign.

ASX 200: gain 43.4
TOPIX: gain 13. 49.
China SSEC: 89.67
HK HSI: 319

 

[Spectre2007]

well if they become correlated the chinese and us markets, indirectly the US gov/institutional trading houses can control the fate of the chinese politics.

A precipitated crash in US equities with the backing from washington to institutional trading houses, could lead to a chinese run on the bank scenario. If the majority of the populace looses money in the panic selling they will be more apt to form resistance movements against the government.

So the Chinese announcement of diversification, instead of primarily financing US debt, could lead washington to direct something similar to a panic run on the bank.

So there might be direct efforts to break the linkage between US and Chinese financial markets.

Chris

 

[PivoTTurner]

TTN ANALYSIS - FOREX OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: CARRY TRADES EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIVING THEME THIS WEEK
- "Since some calm returned to bond and equities markets, people are in a 'yen-carry-trade' type of mindset" - wire citing trader
- Several technicians saying that the implication of last week's JPY weakness is significant as it has dampened any hope of a medium term bottom in the JPY.
- Note that the CHF has not gained much help from SNB's expected rate hike, adding credibility to the idea that the carry trade is alive and well.
- Data outlook for the week: Economic calendar is relatively light this week, but U.S. housing data could add volatility to forex markets. EUR traders to focus on ZEW and Ifo surveys.

 

[PivoTTurner]

Quote from Spectre2007:

So there might be direct efforts to break the linkage between US and Chinese financial markets.

Chris [/B]

Chris,

You made an important correlation here, and I do believe something (might not good) for US market happen soon. however, I traded just day by day.

China's boom is based on the imbalance of riches and poors and something will happen for sure but it might not today or tomorrow.

Ok, here is my ES stake. I gonna buy ES 1547 with a stop 1546 (for the slow trading) and a target 1550 around Frankfurt open and out before British open.

 

[PivoTTurner]

ES gapped open around 4 pts.

I expect a flat trading today.

The news will affect ES:

F: may seek to bid for Land Rover or Jaguar.
GE: reaches pact with unions.
DAX: 0.48% up
FTSE: 0.09%
NIKKEI: 0.98%,
HS: 2.62%


1:00pm Jun NAHM Housing Market Index

SYMC: upgrade by GS.
HAL: Downgrade by GS
X: downgrade by UBS

ES strategy for today: buy dip.

 

[PivoTTurner]

- U.S. Indices are holding near the flat line in fairly quiet trade. With no meaningful data on the calendar equity traders are digesting the announcements of several small deals and a continued move higher in oil prices. GCO is up 8% after getting bid from FINL while shares of AA +2% are helping the Dow after the London Times reported BHP is interested in the Co. Shares of US Steel are off close to 2% after a UBS downgrade noted a full valuation on the recent takeover speculation. Wendy's again said they are exploring the possible sale of Co. WEN -2.8% also lowered guidance putting pressure on other fast food franchises. YUM -1.5% MCD -0.5% July Crude has popped to session highs up more than 1%, approaching $69 a barrel, as the news flow out of Nigeria continues to add to supply concerns. Nigerian facilities continue to be raided by militants while union officials have indicated a general strike is set to start this week. July copper is trading up 1.4% at $3.47 after ticking above $3.50 earlier.
- Treasury futures were ticking higher into the NY open, but since then yields have slowly drifted higher. Traders cited the need for the market to digest increased corporate supply as one reason for the selling following the open. The Benchmark is holding close to unchanged with a yield of 5.16%. The EUR/JPY cross retained a firm tone during the session setting fresh all-time highs since the Euro was introduced back in Jan 1999. EUR/JPY tested 165.63 during the NY morning. Hawkish comments over the weekend from ECB Weber and additional rhetoric from ECB"s Gonzalez-Paramo were noted during the Asian and European session; coupled with comments this morning from ECB Garganas, who reiterated that Europe's monetary policy not restrictive and remains on the accommodative side. Carry trades remained in their current up trend as Japanese retail investors continue to seek higher yields. EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF hitting fresh highs of 165.63, 1.6634 respectively. The USD/CAD experienced an increase in volatility as dealers tried to gun for alleged USD buy stops located at 1.0770 level. Unwinding of recent long EUR/CAD cross positions were also cited as adding to the soft CAD tone in today's session. Sept Bund futures set fresh session lows below 110 following the Garganas comments and with dealers taking into account additional supply down the pipeline in Europe. Gilts saw its European gains erode as the US morning wore on, following the Bund futures. Sept gilts were testing the 103.50 level.

 

[PivoTTurner]

MARKET INTERNALS UPDATE AT 11:30AM
NYSE volume 442M shares, almost 20% below its 3-month average; decliners lead advancers by 1.1:1.
NASDAQ volume 674M shares, almost 15% below its 3-month average; decliners slightly lead advancers.

 

[PivoTTurner]

*JUNE NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 28 V 30E
- lowest reading since Feb 1991
- notes serious impact of tighter lending standards; expects housing to be a drag on the overall economy for the rest of the year

 

[PivoTTurner]

in es short 1547.25
SL: 1550.50
TP: 1544