I think people do not understand that the "market" has had a huge sub-rosa rally because the S&P 500 and large-cap techs were just realigning with their huge market caps. But many sectors have had 100%+ runs, and their respective charts are extremely extended. To extrapolate from this point that the major indices are set to run is extremely dangerous, so I like your call very much. If anything, the major indices are relative-strength laggards, and the other sectors may be ripe to roll over.
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S&P 500 looking very toppy
- Thread starter rubberbird
- Start date
I think people do not understand that the "market" has had a huge sub-rosa rally because the S&P 500 and large-cap techs were just realigning with their huge market caps. But many sectors have had 100%+ runs, and their respective charts are extremely extended. To extrapolate from this point that the major indices are set to run is extremely dangerous, so I like your call very much. If anything, the major indices are relative-strength laggards, and the other sectors may be ripe to roll over.
Quote from PoundTheRock:
Because that's what's worked for the past 2 years, although this time the rally has some clear sailing. Don't underestimate the stupidity of the mutual fund managers to keep buying when the perception is that everything is great.
I totally disagree. The S&P rose from 800 to over 1200 in the last 2 years. So the trend was clearly long. If you say that trading against the trend was more profitable than i would like to know how you do that if you lose in 2 years time more than 400 points ( or a 50% rise) in the S&P? There was a +400 points potential for the longs, how would shorters be able to create a +400 points potential in a rising market?
But if you are a trendfollower with a lousy system ( like the fundsmanagers) than it's clear that their trendfollowing didn't work. If they would have traded against the trend their losses would even have been bigger. So this confirms that trendfollower is better than trading against the trend.
Birdie, i said a few hours ago long till the close of the day; and we broke (slightly) the high from this morning.
Quote from Mvic:
Yes Tol is on my list but I am waiting for earnings, you know they are going to blow them out and the short opportunity will come right after earnings, probably in ah.
For those of you who say the bird is off his rocker, gnaw on this feed.
The bird will be short the homebuilders overnight wednesday. Just for fun..
Looking ready for a macroevent-------------
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=35274&u=macroevent&a=MacroEvent&id=1511
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=35274&u=macroevent&a=MacroEvent&id=1511
Quote from Mvic:
Stopped out overnight (- $11K) it was inevitable after posting my trade on ET. Win some and you lose some.
Well, it went fast as i said.
First rule: NEVER trade against the trend (unless you are a very professional and experienced trader).
It will help you to avoid big losses and the biggest gains are always in the direction of the trend. The best thing to do is to take first the easy gains (trendfollowing) and to learn afterwards to take the difficult ones (against the trend).
A good point for you is that you respect your stop. If not you will sooner or later end up in the "boiled frog" scenario.
Quote from spike500:
Well, it went fast as i said.
First rule: NEVER trade against the trend (unless you are a very professional and experienced trader).
It will help you to avoid big losses and the biggest gains are always in the direction of the trend. The best thing to do is to take first the easy gains (trendfollowing) and to learn afterwards to take the difficult ones (against the trend).
A good point for you is that you respect your stop. If not you will sooner or later end up in the "boiled frog" scenario.
In these zig zag markets with volatile swings from one end of the range to the other, I am afraid your advice is rather worthless. Sideways markets punish the trend followers relentlessly. Perhaps this trend has legs still, but I think you're overstating your case by lecturing a guy for making a trade.