S&P 500 looking very toppy

tradersaavy · Aug 4, 2003

Quote from tradersaavy:

As traders we trade what we see, right ?
Not what we think, right ?

Here's what I see: if not short from the double top already on SPY then perhaps on a break of the trend line. See chart.

.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=295457#post295457

From this post around 7/20, on this thread, where a short term double top looked possible, the correction has occured, only through time, not as much through price.

mgkrebs · Aug 4, 2003

$vix took out June and July highs, reversed, and closed back in its range. SPY took out pretty good support and closed back in its range, pretty bullish candle with a tail. I'll vote for a retest of the top of the range in a few days, as long as I get to change my mind for trading purposes.

Romeo · Aug 5, 2003

Quote from tradersaavy:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=295457#post295457

From this post around 7/20, on this thread, where a short term double top looked possible, the correction has occured, only through time, not as much through price.

I guess we're in the same camp tradersaavy. I see double top, hence this thread. We see the same things! Hope you made out well on it (with $$$). Good luck..

Romeo · Aug 5, 2003

Here on the day, one month later, after I called a "toppy S&P", I am proven correct.

Just think about the ramifications of trading knowing the market cannot rise. I tried to start two journals both in July, both selling multiple S&P futures (big contract) over 1,000. Obviously those were my bets. Ie selling S&P out of the money calls etc.

I made a great deal of money making this fine assessment, and I hope one or two of of you guys did as well.

I sure hope Inandlong made out well.

Its just amazing that there was no comment on this thread by 5pm tuesday. And that's what I have to say.

waggie945 · Aug 5, 2003

I think that today's decline has much more to do with MARS PASSING THE EARTH, ( it's closest pass in almost 60,000 years )rather than the EGOS that continue to pat themselves on the back, for "good" calls. . .

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030805/sc_nm/space_mars_dc_1

Romeo · Aug 5, 2003

Quote from waggie945:

I think that today's decline has much more to do with MARS PASSING THE EARTH, ( it's closest pass in almost 60,000 years )rather than the EGOS that continue to pat themselves on the back, for "good" calls. . .

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030805/sc_nm/space_mars_dc_1

Funny you should say that. August 4th has always been my lucky day.

inandlong · Aug 5, 2003

Quote from waggie945:

I think that today's decline has much more to do with MARS PASSING THE EARTH, rather than the EGOS that continue to pat themselves on the back, for "good" calls. . .

I have to disagree with this statement. In fact, I'd say that a large part of today's decline had to do with egos that continue to pat themselves on the back for making good calls.

That being said, the electromagnetic disruption of our brainwaves caused by the near collision of Mars and Earth most certainly played a part as well. But again, a smaller part than egos.... especially the ones patting themselves on the back for making good calls.

Bolts · Aug 5, 2003

I'm still just barely bullish. :eek: Wouldn't bet any money on it, though. S&P broke support, but Dow and Nasdaq still look like they're holding up OK. But it certainly does look like I'll be bearish if we close lower tomorrow. Gotta stick your neck out once in a while to have fun on this forum.

Romeo · Aug 5, 2003

Quote from inandlong:

I have to disagree with this statement. In fact, I'd say that a large part of today's decline had to do with egos that continue to pat themselves on the back for making good calls.

That being said, the electromagnetic disruption of our brainwaves caused by the near collision of Mars and Earth most certainly played a part as well. But again, a smaller part than egos.... especially the ones patting themselves on the back for making good calls.

LOL! Anyone else been lucky these last two days? Something's lined up correctly, and if its Mars and Earth, so be it.

Pabst · Aug 5, 2003

Quote from Pabst:

As someone who has posted a few sentiment polls on ET I think Romeo's point is well taken. I don't think he was implying that in this case ET'ers are necessarily "wrong", just that there is a historical deviation between sentiment on this board and the expectations of portfolio managers and the general public. BTW you can take it to the bank: this stuff is going to break like no to-morrow.

Just thought I'd pat myself on the back and the wallet.