S&P 500 looking very toppy

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I got the info from this very site. Before I posted earlier I took the very same poll that is attached to tis thread. According to it over 73 % of traders are expecting a pullback. I voted on the 4th choice which was:would you buy it if it pulled back? and that was 12%
 
Quote from Lovelitera:

I got the info from this very site. Before I posted earlier I took the very same poll that is attached to tis thread. According to it over 73 % of traders are expecting a pullback. I voted on the 4th choice which was:would you buy it if it pulled back? and that was 12%
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This site, and especially this thread, attracts disgruntled traders, and mostly bearish personalities. It has no real parallel to the real world out there, and to the mass of traders. The mass of traders and investors are bullish, according to all respected publications.

This board, and especially this poll, is skewed because this site is full of "market will crash" & "doom is coming" traders, who are mostly always negative. Don't use either as a barometer of real sentiment.
 
Quote from Romeo:



This site, and especially this thread, attracts disgruntled traders, and mostly bearish personalities. It has no real parallel to the real world out there, and to the mass of traders. The mass of traders and investors are bullish, according to all respected publications.

This board, and especially this poll, is skewed because this site is full of "market will crash" & "doom is coming" traders, who are mostly always negative. Don't use either as a barometer of real sentiment.
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You're saying that all those traders are wrong to be bearish, but this entire thread is about you calling for a decline? I don't understand the difference between the two sentiments.
 
Quote from lmt:



You're saying that all those traders are wrong to be bearish, but this entire thread is about you calling for a decline? I don't understand the difference between the two sentiments.
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As someone who has posted a few sentiment polls on ET I think Romeo's point is well taken. I don't think he was implying that in this case ET'ers are necessarily "wrong", just that there is a historical deviation between sentiment on this board and the expectations of portfolio managers and the general public. BTW you can take it to the bank: this stuff is going to break like no to-morrow.
 
Quote from Pabst:



As someone who has posted a few sentiment polls on ET I think Romeo's point is well taken. I don't think he was implying that in this case ET'ers are necessarily "wrong", just that there is a historical deviation between sentiment on this board and the expectations of portfolio managers and the general public. BTW you can take it to the bank: this stuff is going to break like no to-morrow.
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Thank you Pabst. it's good to know that there's at least one normal member on this board who can understand plain English. I was not implying that ET'ers are necessarily "wrong". I was referring to the fact that there is a historical deviation between sentiment on this board and the expectations of portfolio managers and the general public. Exactly.
 
Hey buddy. Can you start this poll again at zero? The answers are old, and maybe there's been a change of sentiment.

So if you can, re-start it again please. Thanks much!
 
Quote from Romeo:



This site, and especially this thread, attracts disgruntled traders, and mostly bearish personalities. It has no real parallel to the real world out there, and to the mass of traders. The mass of traders and investors are bullish, according to all respected publications.

This board, and especially this poll, is skewed because this site is full of "market will crash" & "doom is coming" traders, who are mostly always negative. Don't use either as a barometer of real sentiment.
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According to what you posted here, there isn't any need to run a new poll. It will always come out the same. This is YOUR plain english, not mine.
 
Quote from lmt:



According to what you posted here, there isn't any need to run a new poll. It will always come out the same. This is YOUR plain english, not mine.
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So a new guy with 3 posts has a biting comment for me? How shocking!

Listen Einstein, if you can understand English, which is highly debatable, a new poll can reflect different results w/o changing my premise that you quoted. For example, less than 50% in the A) category, as opposed to what there is now.

Now take a deep breath, and think about it.

Am I talking slow enough?
 
It is extremely difficult to say.

A few months ago, no amount of bad news could stop the market from going higher with dip buyers stepping in and taking the market higher.

Recently, the market takes good news in stride, and when the buying subsides, shorts come in and route the market. All this still in sort of a trading range, as dip buyers are stepping in, less ferociously, but you can always see where they are lurking just waiting to pounce.

I am extremely bullish mostly for one reason. About $5 Trillion dollars is now in cash waiting to get invested (about $3T of it came last thursday out of the Eurodollar futures, an astounding number in one day.) Now, the question is WHERE does this money go? It was clearly wrong to put it in Bonds a week ago. Today, it is not so obvious, as bond yields are once again beginning to get competitive. However, IMHO, as long as yields stay below 5%, that money will go into equities, and therefore the stock index futures will just grease that oil and provide positive feedback to the (hypothetical) rally.

All fun and games theorizing about it, as who cares or trades this way?

nitro
 
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