S&P 500 Index Analysis

Since nobody has pointed out yet:

What is the point of having a daily detailed analysis, when your trading style is swing, holding it for 1-2 weeks??? Unless you trade on your DAILY conviction, it is worthless to mention this or that.

Now if you occasionally throw in a hedge or quick trade, it would make sense, otherwise.....
 
Troll

n.
an internet user who sends inflammatory or provocative messages designed to elicit negative responses or start a flame-war. (As a fisherman trolls for an unsuspecting fish.) Usage: "Don't answer those silly messages. Some troll is just looking for an argument."

Dictionary of American Slang and Colloquial Expressions by Richard A. Spears. Fourth Edition. Copyright 2007. Published by McGraw Hill.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Since nobody has pointed out yet:

What is the point of having a daily detailed analysis, when your trading style is swing, holding it for 1-2 weeks??? Unless you trade on your DAILY conviction, it is worthless to mention this or that.

Now if you occasionally throw in a hedge or quick trade, it would make sense, otherwise.....
More...

My guess he's doing it the same as others are doing it at ET...posting brief daily market summaries or commentary about something (e.g. FED, politics, global economics et cetera) while having swing trades that last days or weeks even though the commentaries provide no correlation to the trade positions being held.

It's also keeps the thread looking like it's still active similar as to what we see in most swing trading blogs online. In fact, some of the best online blogs by swing traders do contain daily market summaries or some sort'uv daily commentary about anything even if it's not trading related.

One of my favorite swing trading blogs contain daily satire and an occasional girly pick while the guy mentions once in awhile his current trade position. :cool:

Mark
 
Dec. 1, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the market will recover the losses since Thanksgiving towards 1,200." Today the market recovered all losses since Thanksgiving to close above 1,200. Looking ahead to tomorrow, China's Q3 GDP will demonstrate that its restrictive monetary policy will not derail China's fast economic growth, and the ECB Governing Council will reassure the market on its commitment to an accommodating monetary policy for as long as necessary. The Initial Jobless Claims will confirm the continued downward trend in the four-week-average Initial Jobless Claims. As a result, the market will rise above 1,210.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,197
 
Dec. 2, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the Initial Jobless Claims will confirm the continued downward trend in the four-week-average Initial Jobless Claims," and that "the market will rise above 1,210." Today the Initial Jobless Claims at 436,000 confirmed the downward trend, and the market rose above 1,210. On Nov. 26 the Analysis predicted that "the longer the market is held below 1,200, the bolder the Bears will become, and the longer they will refuse to admit to being wrong; thus, the more violent the eventual short-covering rally will become." The market's bullish run in the last two days has validated the prediction, although not all Bears have thrown in the towel, leaving an additional room for the market to rally.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the payroll increase will be at least 155,000 while the unemployment rate will surprisingly drop to 9.5% or lower. The ISM Non-manufacturing Index will increase to at least 55.5. As a result, the market will rise towards 1,230 and settle below 1,228.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,197
 
Quote from DrChen:

Troll
More...

Son, (Dr. my hairy ass) you have no idea what a troll is. I am your accountant, since you are too lazy to provide a P/L. So far every post of mine was right on target, constructive criticism if you will. Your inability failing to address the points isn't my fault, but your systems. I will be the first to congratulate you if you bring it back to green....

But your persistence is clearly adorable. :)

(not that I actually read the commentaries, since they have nothing to do with the position)
 
Dr. Chen,
Your daily commentaries are greatly appreciated and have been right on the mark. Please keep up the excellent work.
 
rbaselt,

Thank you for your kind words. I will continue to write the Analysis, since I enjoy observing, analyzing, and predicting the market movement based on current economic, financial, and political affairs.

It would appear that the comment that "your daily commentaries... have been right on the mark" jinxed the quality of my Analysis. Usually, when a trader has been "right on the mark" for a number of times, he starts to have an illusion of grandeur and believes that he is bigger than the market, and that marks the beginning of an end.

Dr. Chen
 
Dec. 3, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "not all Bears have thrown in the towel, leaving an additional room for the market to rally." Today the market initially dropped after an extremely disappointing payroll increase for Nov., but once the market limited its loss, the Bears were squeezed before the weekend set in. Looking ahead to next week, little news will aid the Bulls, so the market will resume its focus on the European sovereign debts with possible downgrades of Greek and Portuguese debt ratings. China's Nov. inflation rate will stoke the fear of further monetary tightening. The Euro Bears, who last week outnumbered the Bulls (as measured by the number of net-short currency contracts) for the first time in recent months, have been squeezed out this week, leaving little room for further weakening of the dollar. As a result, the market will retrace towards 1,200.

Strategy:

Reversed to short at 1,217 for a profit of 20 points
 
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