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S&P 500 Index Analysis
- Thread starter DrChen
- Start date
Jan. 19, 2011
Analysis:
The Analysis on Jan. 14 predicted that "the market will continue its upward move until 1,300-1,320 range before it runs out of steam." Today the market entered its correction phase that is long over due. Despite upbeat earnings from bellwether companies IBM and Apple, the market dropped 13 points. The correction will continue because the market still closed above its 10-day moving average, and the correction will not pause until the market tests this year's low of 1,261.
On Dec. 29, 2010 Nine_Ender and I made our separate calls -- the former calling the market's upward move to test 1,300, while I called for a 3-5% correction. Perhaps we both were wrong and both were right. We both were wrong because the market did not test 1,300 in the next few trading days until yesterday, nor did the market enter a 3-5% correction from the Dec. 29 level. We both may be right because the market did test 1,300 yesterday, and [the market did enter a 3% correction?].
Dr. Chen
Strategy:
Sold short at 1,294
Analysis:
The Analysis on Jan. 14 predicted that "the market will continue its upward move until 1,300-1,320 range before it runs out of steam." Today the market entered its correction phase that is long over due. Despite upbeat earnings from bellwether companies IBM and Apple, the market dropped 13 points. The correction will continue because the market still closed above its 10-day moving average, and the correction will not pause until the market tests this year's low of 1,261.
On Dec. 29, 2010 Nine_Ender and I made our separate calls -- the former calling the market's upward move to test 1,300, while I called for a 3-5% correction. Perhaps we both were wrong and both were right. We both were wrong because the market did not test 1,300 in the next few trading days until yesterday, nor did the market enter a 3-5% correction from the Dec. 29 level. We both may be right because the market did test 1,300 yesterday, and [the market did enter a 3% correction?].
Dr. Chen
Strategy:
Sold short at 1,294
Jan. 20, 2011
Analysis:
Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the correction will continue." Today the market did drop as many as 10 points despite various encouraging economic news in the morning pointing to the strengthening economic recovery. In the end the market pared most of the losses to finish slightly lower.
Strategy:
Stopped out at 1,273 for a profit of 21 points
Analysis:
Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the correction will continue." Today the market did drop as many as 10 points despite various encouraging economic news in the morning pointing to the strengthening economic recovery. In the end the market pared most of the losses to finish slightly lower.
Strategy:
Stopped out at 1,273 for a profit of 21 points
Quote from DrChen:
Jan. 20, 2011
Analysis:
Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the correction will continue." Today the market did drop as many as 10 points despite various encouraging economic news in the morning pointing to the strengthening economic recovery. In the end the market pared most of the losses to finish slightly lower.
Strategy:
Stopped out at 1,273 for a profit of 21 points
Nice trade I wouldn't want to be short on Monday because there is some chance the bulls are waiting til' after expiry to buy these strong earnings stocks.
My guess is index trading will be difficult for a few weeks. If we drag down in the afternoon it might be good to go long around 3 pm and sell if we gap up Monday.
Nine_Ender,
Thank you for your encouragement and earlier constructive criticism. In response to your criticism (after paying a hefty price), on Jan. 14 I stated that "I will implement some type of risk-management strategy for future trades," which resulted in a stop at 1,273.
I do not have the skill to pinpoint the time as precise as 3 p.m. today to enter a trade either on the long or short side.
Also, cotton seems to stretch very high -- hitting the daily exchange limit for a second consecutive day, although the discussion of cotton price does not fall into the topic of this thread. Thanks.
Dr. Chen
Thank you for your encouragement and earlier constructive criticism. In response to your criticism (after paying a hefty price), on Jan. 14 I stated that "I will implement some type of risk-management strategy for future trades," which resulted in a stop at 1,273.
I do not have the skill to pinpoint the time as precise as 3 p.m. today to enter a trade either on the long or short side.
Also, cotton seems to stretch very high -- hitting the daily exchange limit for a second consecutive day, although the discussion of cotton price does not fall into the topic of this thread. Thanks.
Dr. Chen
Quote from DrChen:
Jan. 19, 2011
... Perhaps we both were wrong and both were right. ...
Almost everything said about the market is both right and wrong as long as there is no conditions such as time limit or sequence of events are mentioned.
If two opposite views are right or wrong, that means at least one was stated vaguely.
Quote from joe4422:
So, Dr. Chen, what's your total for now, even though you get to trade after the fact? Last time I checked in you were down massively, even with the benefit of letting every one now the next day where you bought or sold.
I wonder what is your motivation behind your not-so-intelligent (did not want to use stupid) random criticisms.
tough to stay short when the market is on a rampage.