S&P 500 Index Analysis

[Pekelo]

Quote from Optionpro007:

Dr Chen, if you don't mind me asking, are you really trading your Analysis with real funds? If so, what is your P&L since thread inception?

Since the good doctor is too busy writing his analysis, he asked me to post the P/L so far. OK, he didn't really ask me but here it is anyway:

P/L since the beginning in ES pts:

-30
-20
-34
3
53
8
------------
Sum: -20

...and currently he has an unrealized -20 pts loss.

No charge for the accounting. By the way I wonder which is the more worthless thread, this one or Nitro's....

 

[DrChen]

Optionpro007,

Now you can either accept someone else's accounting or do your own calculations to find out the truth if your real intention is to know the final tally. You must have been a trader long enough to know that accepting someone else's answer will never reap any gains for your own benefit.

Dr. Chen

 

[DrChen]

Nov. 23, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the revised Q3 GDP will be 2.4% or higher, as the international trade deficit subtracted less from the GDP due to a weak dollar." Today the revised GDP came in 2.5%. However, the Analysis did NOT predict the North Korean artillery shells landing on a South Korean island, and the market was pulled back by a variety of fear factors. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Durable Good Orders excluding transportation will show that the US manufacturing sector continues to grow, and Personal Income also grows with improving employment. Finally, the Initial Jobless Claims will stay below 440,000 for a second consecutive week for the first time in many months. As a result, the market will recover most of today's loss while the Euro will have a short-covering rally.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,197

 

[volente_00]

So you and the Dr have a lot in common then with huge losing trades.




9/17/10

Quote from Pekelo:

Since I want to help out my buddy, Emg, here is a trade for him:

Short 1120 SL 1150 T 900

Guys, happy now?

 

[DrChen]

Nov. 24, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the Initial Jobless Claims will stay below 440,000 for a second consecutive week for the first time in many months," and that "the market will recover most of today's loss." Today the Initial Jobless Claims were 407,000, and the market recovered all yesterday's loss. Looking ahead to Friday, the tension in Korean Peninsula will not escalate, and the details of the Irish bailout will calm investor jittery. As a result, the market will break out 1,200 to rise as high as 1,210.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,197

 

[rbaselt]

Dr. Chen,
You nailed it today, although I refused to believe it till 2 hours into the session. Excellent work!

 

[DrChen]

rbaselt,

Thank you for your compliment, although it is difficult to judge an analysis¡¯ quality based on one day¡¯s prediction, as they say, ¡°even a blind squirrel can hit an acorn.¡±

The most challenging part of the Analysis is not calling the direction of the market, but when such a movement occurs. For example, I have called the market to rise to as high as 1,210 thrice in the past week, and I have no doubt that the market will rise to 1,210 sometime in the future, and yet it has not done so already. (Obviously, I could not have predicted the Korean skirmish.) Thanks.

Dr. Chen

 

[DrChen]

Nov. 26, 2010

Analysis:

Today the market retreated in a low-volume trading. Looking ahead to next week, the revelation of the details of the Irish bailout on Sunday will soothe investor jittery, and an increase in consumer spending during Black Friday will add optimism for the economic recovery. Consumer Sentiment, ISM Manufacturing Index, and payroll increase will all boost the market. The seasonal Thanksgiving rally was delayed by the Korean skirmish, but the longer the market is held below 1,200, the bolder the Bears will become, and the longer they will refuse to admit to being wrong; thus, the more violent the eventual short-covering rally will become.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,197

 

[DrChen]

Nov. 29, 2010

Analysis:

The market tests the patience of the Bulls, as it has failed to rise above 1,200. The market also frustrates the Bears, as it has repeatedly offered them intraday profits, only to pare the losses by the close. Today the market pared most of the day's loss to settle slightly lower. Looking ahead to tomorrow, both the Chicago PMI and the Consumer Confidence will boost the market, and the lack of negative news out of Europe will deprive the Bears of any additional ammunition.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,197

 

[DrChen]

Nov. 30, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "both the Chicago PMI and the Consumer Confidence will boost the market." Today, they did not boost the market, but they at least stemmed the market's early loss. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the ISM Manufacturing Index will exceed the highest forecast at 57.2 to reach near 60, and the Motor Vehicle Sales for Nov. will rebound to pre-crisis level. As a result, the market will recover the losses since Thanksgiving towards 1,200.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,197