S&P 500 Index Analysis

Quote from Optionpro007:

Dr Chen had the exact same line of thinking in his 2007 posts on CL.
More...

Maybe he should have stayed with Light Crude Oil CL since 2007...much more interesting in comparison to the S&P 500 Emini ES. :D

In fact, if he were to revisit Light Crude Oil CL...I would find this thread more interesting to see how he's trying to connect market context to his trade decisions.

Mark
 
Oct. 22, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the market will trade in a range but drift higher." Today the market traded in a five-point range and ended higher. Looking ahead to next week, after consolidating in a tight range today the market will march higher, as additional upbeat corporate earnings are reported, and the expectations continue to build up for a Republican-controlled Congress and Fed's QE2.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,160
 
Oct. 25, 2010

Analysis:

Friday's Analysis predicted that "the market will march higher." Today the market started off strong but pared the gains as concerns about the impact of home foreclosure irregularities on banks weighed the overall market, but the market still managed to top the recent resistance of 1,182-1,185. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the market will build on today's strong action that refused to dip below Friday's high. The Case-Shiller Housing Price Index will rise only marginally, and Consumer Confidence will also rise above 50, albeit still at a depressed level. Texas Instrument's upbeat earnings should provide support to technology stocks, and US Steels' earnings will contribute to a positive sentiment to materials stocks.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,160
 
So, even though you get to pick what price you buy or sell at the next day, you've still managed to lose massive amounts of money.


I would like to offer you the trophy of the worst, and I mean the very worst trader I have ever met in my life. You are the very proof of why only losers trade the yahoo news clips.
 
Oct. 26, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index will rise only marginally, and Consumer Confidence will also rise above 50, albeit still at a depressed level." Today the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index rose 1.7% from a year ago, and the Consumer Confidence rose to 50.2. The market consolidated on the backdrop of a strong dollar, as the reality of future inflation in the US set in. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Durable Goods Orders will bring a positive surprise, as the demand for manufacturing equipment from overseas remains robust, and the New Home Sales will rise from historic low to at least 305,000 units in light of concerns on titles of foreclosed homes. Conoco Phillips's earnings report will lead energy stocks higher. As a result, the market will make an attempt to 1,200 and close above 1,190.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,160
 
Oct. 27, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the Durable Goods Orders will bring a positive surprise, as the demand for manufacturing equipment from overseas remains robust, and the New Home Sales will rise from historic low to at least 305,000 units in light of concerns on titles of foreclosed homes." Today the Durable Good Orders rose 3.3%, and the New Home Sales rose to 307,000. The market finished slightly lower due to concerns about the size of the Fed's QE2. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Initial Jobless Claims will drop below 450,000. As a result, an optimistic economic outlook will drive the market higher to close near 1,190.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,160
 
Oct. 28, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the Initial Jobless Claims will drop below 450,000." Today the Initial Jobless Claims came in 434,000, and the market rose slightly upon close. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Q3 GDP will be at least 2.2%, as the international trade deficit was helped by a weak dollar and did not drag down the GDP as much. The Consumer Sentiment will increase slightly from September's 68.2 instead of the consensus decline. The Chicago PMI will decline less than the consensus and will not impede the market's rise. As a result, the market, aided by Microsoft's upbeat earnings report, will attempt to breach 1,200 and close above 1,190.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,160
 
Oct. 29, 2010

Analysis:

Today's Q3 GDP and Consumer Sentiment came in tepid and failed to lift the market, so the market finished flat. Looking ahead to next week, the ISM Manufacturing Index will confirm the ongoing economic recovery at a slow pace, and both a Republican-controlled Congress and the Fed's QE2 will provide support to the market, but whether any upward move by the market will have any legs is somewhat doubtful, and such a market sentiment will result in a fading rally due to profit-taking.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,160
 
Nov. 1, 2010

Analysis:

Friday's Analysis predicted that "whether any upward move by the market will have any legs is somewhat doubtful, and such a market sentiment will result in a fading rally due to profit-taking." Today the market initially rallied on an upbeat ISM Manufacturing Index, but the rally soon faded due to profit-taking and dropped as many as 17 points before settling slightly higher. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the market will cautiously move higher, as the expected mid-term election results will weigh on the dollar. ADM's earnings report should lead material producers higher, as several agricultural products have hit multi-year highs, but the same factors will also negatively affect Kellogg's bottom lines.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,160
 
Nov. 2, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the market will cautiously move higher, as the expected mid-term election results will weigh on the dollar." Today the dollar continued to depreciate against major currencies, and the market moved higher. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Factory Orders will be healthy, and the ISM Non-manufacturing Index will bring a positive surprise. The weakness of the dollar below $1.40/Euro along with QE2 greater than $500 billion will seal the market above 1,200.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,160
 
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