S&P 500 Index Analysis

Oct. 19, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that today "Nasdaq-100 will lead the market retreat, and the S&P 500 index, whose recent rally has been led by technology companies, will need upbeat earnings reports from Bank of America to counter a significant retreat." Today the Nasdaq-100 did lead the market retreat. Although Bank of America's reported earnings far exceeded consensus, its performance was overshadowed by the fact that the New York Fed has joined the lawsuit to force Bank of America to take back certain mortgages sold to the New York Fed. As a result, the sentiment turned negative, and the market settled near the day's low. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Fed Beige look will reiterate the gloomy employment outlook at all districts, which the market will take as another factor to prod the Fed into QE2 in Nov. Yahoo!'s upbeat earnings will help to send the market back above 1,170.

Strategy:

Reversed to long at 1,160 for a loss of 3 points
 
Oct. 20, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that today "Yahoo!'s upbeat earnings will help to send the market back above 1,170." Today the market rose on good corporate earnings and closed above 1,170. Looking ahead to tomorrow, China's Q3 GDP will lead the market to open higher, and the Initial Jobless Claims will be close to 450,000 and contribute to the market's optimistic sentiment. eBay's upbeat earnings will lead technology stocks higher, and Caterpillar's earnings will also bring a positive surprise given the rising commodity prices and will lead industrial stocks higher. As a result, the market will break away from the 1,182-1,185 resistance and close towards 1,190.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,160
 
Oct. 21, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the Initial Jobless Claims will be close to 450,000 and contribute to the market's optimistic sentiment." Today the Initial Jobless Claims came in as 453,000, and the market moved higher towards 1,190 upon opening. Technical related profit-taking caused the market to drop back below 1,185 despite upbeat corporate earnings, but the market still managed to finish higher. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the market will trade in a range but drift higher as American Express' upbeat earnings will pull financial stocks out of doldrums.

Strategy:

Hold long at 1,160
 
At what point did you decide to switch long? This is a point less thread if you don't say it in advance buddy. You can't wait for the next day and decide what you did.
 
Quote from joe4422:

At what point did you decide to switch long? This is a point less thread if you don't say it in advance buddy. You can't wait for the next day and decide what you did.
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Quote from DrChen:

Oct. 19, 2010

Strategy:

Reversed to long at 1,160 for a loss of 3 points
More...
 
Actually I had read that, but that was after the fact.



Any way, it doesn't matter. He's already down about 80 points anyway, which is more than the market has even moved.


This is a great time to get short, unless his predictions start to get better.
 
Quote from joe4422:

At what point did you decide to switch long? This is a point less thread if you don't say it in advance buddy. You can't wait for the next day and decide what you did.
More...

Actually...he can because it's his thread. :cool:

Look at it this way, has he stated in this thread his trades "will be" called in advance and is his thread titled as such or implies such. ??? The answer is NO.

In fact, there are LOTS of journals here at ET where trades are not called in advance because the thread starter (OP) has started a thread about a completely different aspect of trading as in a different objective in comparison to a typical signal calling thread that's viewed upon by most as lacking substance.

For example, take a look at one of the most popular trade journals here ET called Grinding it out, day after day by Lescor @ http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=187730

He doesn't call his trades in advance because that's not the objective of his thread. His objective is popular because it contains substance in comparison to the typical signal calling thread. My point is that you're trying to project your own objectives onto someone else that has completely different objectives. Also, if someone doesn't share the same objective as you do...you start crap with with that person. That's B.S. and makes ET looks more like a Yahoo! forum with your troll activity.

Furthering my view above about folks with different objectives like Lescor and so many others...

I myself don't see this thread about trades. In contrast, I see a thread about the economy, economic reports and an analysis of the information to talk about a trade in reaction to that analysis.

Look more carefully if you're confused or in disagreement...he only has one single line in most message post that mentions a trade action. In contrast, he has 5 to 10 lines as in a paragraph that talks about something with economics. Also, his thread title has the word "Analysis" in it and not trades nor calls nor signals.

Therefore, he can post his trades DAYS after the fact or days before the fact or in realtime...it still doesn't contradict his objective even though it's in conflict with your objective.

Simply, this is not your thread.

Note: There are a few signal calling threads that contain substance but they have a ton of useful involvement (participation) with other traders without any mudslinging. Yet those few threads have the objective to be signal calling.

Mark
 
May I jump in, objectively, of course? :)

Quote from wrbtrader:

has he stated in this thread his trades "will be" called in advance and is his thread titled as such or implies such. ???
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In advance? No. But SHORTLY after the fact would be nice. Not 3 hours and 8-10 pts already in his direction later.

If he did his analysis later, like 6 pm and expected a rally for the 20th, how did he know very close to the bottom around 3:30 pm to get out of the short and switch to long?????

For any credibility he should post the trade no more than 10 minutes after the fact or 3-5 pts in his favour... Even that is too slow, but would be less obvious...

He had 4 incredibly BAD trades, and then he decides to post the trade WAY after the fact, and suddenly, it is a winner!!!! What a miracle!!!
 
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