S&P 500 Index Analysis

[DrChen]

Oct. 12, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis called the Fed's QE2 a "done deal," but the market did not fully price in such as "done deal." As a result, the market rose after the release of the Fed's minutes and closed higher. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the market will initially rise on the news of the upbeat earnings report from Intel, but whether the rise can be sustained depends on the market's perception of whether Intel's earnings growth is sustainable into next year.

Strategy:

Hold short at 1,157

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from wrbtrader:


Thanks for the journal. It's nice to see someone not bragging in their journal or bashing others...

Let's keep it real, shall we? The dude posted 3 outrageously bad trades and the 4th is down -9 pts too.

There is nothing to brag about... Did you get any value out of this crap??? How good his analysis could be if he bases his trades on them????

 

[joe4422]

I didn't start bashing until he started lying.

 

[DrChen]

Oct. 13, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the market will initially rise on the news of the upbeat earnings report from Intel, but whether the rise can be sustained depends on the market's perception of whether Intel's earnings growth is sustainable into next year." Today Intel did open higher but dropped throughout the day to close 2.7% lower. However, the broad market stayed elevated throughout the day and finished in an up note. The irony is that although Intel settled lower, the market rally was driven by technology stocks, as Intel's upbeat earnings report raised expectations of similar above-par performance of other technology companies. Today's Intel performance may shed light to the market performance tomorrow, as investors will consider the market "overbought" in light of the market's sharp rally recently. As a result, the market will end lower. A significant market retreat, if any, would provide an opportunity to get long.

Strategy:

Hold short at 1,157

 

[DrChen]

Oct. 14, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the market will end lower" today, and the market did settle lower, although paring down the earlier losses. Looking ahead to tomorrow, Retail Sales will disappoint in the absence of large discounts offered to consumers in Sept. Empire State Manufacturing Survey will not recover as much as the consensus. The Consumer Sentiment will deteriorate instead of improve in light of continued dismissal of workers by government and businesses alike. As a result, the market will aim to plunge below 1,160.

Strategy:

Hold short at 1,157

 

[DrChen]

Oct. 15, 2010

Analysis:

Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the Consumer Sentiment will deteriorate instead of improve in light of continued dismissal of workers by government and businesses alike." Today the Consumer Sentiment did decrease instead of increasing as forecast by consensus. The market dropped on the news but recovered to close higher when Google's upbeat earnings more than offset GE's disappointing revenue. Looking ahead to next week, the market is due to a retreat, as the Fed's QE2 mantra starts to generate fatigue to investors who buy into the market on the expectation of the "Bernanke put" but are otherwise given too little concrete positive economic news.

Strategy:

Hold short at 1,157

 

[MarketException]

Quote from DrChen:


...
As to your third observation, it never ceases to amaze me that some people believe that just because they can remain anonymous, they can treat others with little or no respect, such as bashing other people or accusing them of wrongdoing. I am determined to foster a sense of dialogue where people can share their thoughts frankly and at the same time with respect to one another.
...

Dr. Chen

I gave this issue a bit of thought. I think the fundamental reason for this uncivilized behavior is the shadow psychology, the less spoken dark side of human mind in our deep subconscious. Perhaps an inheritance from our animal ancestors. This dark side is suppressed in early child hood. But in many people (or perhaps everyone) will show itself once there is no consequence. They come up with a justification for their actions which satisfies the conscious as well.

 

[DrChen]

MarketException,

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

Since I have no formal training in psychology or anthropology, I can neither concur with nor repudiate your underlying analysis of the animus of human behavior. However, based on my own observations, I do agree that humans have the tendency to compare ourselves with others, and that making others look foolish and inferior to us is indeed gratifying to our own mind.

Dr. Chen

 

[DrChen]

Oct. 18, 2010

Analysis:

Today the market rose past a disappointing Industrial Production in Sept., just as it did to a disappointing Consumer Sentiment on Friday. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the market is due to a retreat, as Apple's shares dropped 5% in after-hour trading from a record-high close despite impressive earnings far exceeding consensus, and IBM shares fared similarly. Nasdaq-100 will lead the market retreat, and the S&P 500 index, whose recent rally has been led by technology companies, will need upbeat earnings reports from Bank of America to counter a significant retreat.

Strategy:

Hold short at 1,157

 

[joe4422]

I think Apple will bounce back. It's the IPAD sales that were lower than expected that caused the Apple sell off, you're wrong in thinking that it's selling off dispite great earnings.

I'm looking to buy Apple around 277.