S&P 500 Index Analysis
- Thread starter DrChen
- Start date
Sept. 27, 2010
Analysis:
Today the fact that the market did not take out the 1,150 resistance is a surprise, given the backdrop of Unilever's acquisition of Alberto-Culver and Southwest's offer for AirTran, and to say that the failure of M&T Bank's merger with Santander outweighs the other two would be convincing to the gullible. Now the Bulls should consider taking profits, not because being bullish is wrong, but because the market has found its short-term top at 1,150 and will reach 1,120 before hitting 1,150. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index will bring a major disappointment that the Bulls may use to liquidate their long positions, and the Consumer Sentiment will be lower than the consensus, again dragged by the dim outlook for employment and dwindling household asset values including home prices, whose shrinking values will have been confirmed by the earlier Case-Shiller HPI, and stock holdings (because most retail investors did not catch the early part of the market rally since Sept. 1).
Strategy:
Hold short at 1,122 (Correction: The Strategy for Friday should have stated "hold short at 1,122 with a bias to exit short position" because otherwise it would have stated something along the line "offset short at 1,140 for a loss of 18 points." Mea culpa.)
Analysis:
Today the fact that the market did not take out the 1,150 resistance is a surprise, given the backdrop of Unilever's acquisition of Alberto-Culver and Southwest's offer for AirTran, and to say that the failure of M&T Bank's merger with Santander outweighs the other two would be convincing to the gullible. Now the Bulls should consider taking profits, not because being bullish is wrong, but because the market has found its short-term top at 1,150 and will reach 1,120 before hitting 1,150. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index will bring a major disappointment that the Bulls may use to liquidate their long positions, and the Consumer Sentiment will be lower than the consensus, again dragged by the dim outlook for employment and dwindling household asset values including home prices, whose shrinking values will have been confirmed by the earlier Case-Shiller HPI, and stock holdings (because most retail investors did not catch the early part of the market rally since Sept. 1).
Strategy:
Hold short at 1,122 (Correction: The Strategy for Friday should have stated "hold short at 1,122 with a bias to exit short position" because otherwise it would have stated something along the line "offset short at 1,140 for a loss of 18 points." Mea culpa.)
Sept. 28, 2010
Analysis:
Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the Consumer Sentiment will be lower than the consensus," and today it came in much lower than the consensus. The market sold off on the news until it hit the support at 1,131 and then bounced to resistance at 1,150 before closing higher in a day largely dominated by technical trading. Looking ahead to tomorrow, it is doubtful that the PMI out of China will give the market a direction, so it will be a day of consolidation in the 1,131-1,150 range as the Bulls and the Bears take their respective positions for more economic news later this week, the Bulls betting on more corporate mergers while the Bears betting on uninspiring economic statistics.
Strategy:
Hold short at 1,122
Analysis:
Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the Consumer Sentiment will be lower than the consensus," and today it came in much lower than the consensus. The market sold off on the news until it hit the support at 1,131 and then bounced to resistance at 1,150 before closing higher in a day largely dominated by technical trading. Looking ahead to tomorrow, it is doubtful that the PMI out of China will give the market a direction, so it will be a day of consolidation in the 1,131-1,150 range as the Bulls and the Bears take their respective positions for more economic news later this week, the Bulls betting on more corporate mergers while the Bears betting on uninspiring economic statistics.
Strategy:
Hold short at 1,122
Come on Dr. Chen, you're just acting like a fool now. You clearly already stated that you took the hit. Even when I asked you why you were exiting your short, right as we traded into resistance, you said nothing.
Here's your post:
Sept. 24, 2010
Analysis:
Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "unless the market can immediately reverse itself tomorrow to close above 1,131, the Bears will be emboldened and become very aggressive in attempts to push the market below 1,088." Today the Bears did not give the Bulls that opportunity to be emboldened, and the market recovered the previous three days' cumulative losses to close higher. This week has seen an epic battle between the Bulls and the Bears, the the Bulls had an upper hand. Looking ahead to next week, the market will find positive news to embrace and continue to rise.
Strategy:
Exit short position
It's just amazing how many scam artist there are. Quit stealing peoples money and just get a damn job.
Here's your post:
Sept. 24, 2010
Analysis:
Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "unless the market can immediately reverse itself tomorrow to close above 1,131, the Bears will be emboldened and become very aggressive in attempts to push the market below 1,088." Today the Bears did not give the Bulls that opportunity to be emboldened, and the market recovered the previous three days' cumulative losses to close higher. This week has seen an epic battle between the Bulls and the Bears, the the Bulls had an upper hand. Looking ahead to next week, the market will find positive news to embrace and continue to rise.
Strategy:
Exit short position
It's just amazing how many scam artist there are. Quit stealing peoples money and just get a damn job.
Sept. 29, 2010
Anaylsis:
Yesterday's Analysis predicted that today "will be a day of consolidation in the 1,131-1,150 range," and today the market did trade in a relatively narrow range. Looking ahead to tomorrow, barring a significant positive surprise of the final Q2 GDP, the Chicago PMI will be lower than the consensus and accelerate the selling of the market that already opens lower due to Moody's downgrade of Spanish bond rating overnight. As a result, the market will close below 1,131.
Strategy:
Hold short at 1,122
Anaylsis:
Yesterday's Analysis predicted that today "will be a day of consolidation in the 1,131-1,150 range," and today the market did trade in a relatively narrow range. Looking ahead to tomorrow, barring a significant positive surprise of the final Q2 GDP, the Chicago PMI will be lower than the consensus and accelerate the selling of the market that already opens lower due to Moody's downgrade of Spanish bond rating overnight. As a result, the market will close below 1,131.
Strategy:
Hold short at 1,122