Dr Chen I was pretty impressed with your fundamental analysis until this.
S&P 500 Index Analysis
- Thread starter DrChen
- Start date
Dr Chen I was pretty impressed with your fundamental analysis until this.
Optionpro007,
Thank you for your comment and perhap a veiled question. Let me propose a question to myself and answer it.
"Why don't you have something substantive to say about Tuesday's market action?"
I have no basis to predict Tuesday's market action. Some days market moves due to non-economic events, and some days market action is random. To be a little sarcastic, I would come up with a "fundamental analysis" to my editor if I were a financial news reporter who would have to write something at the end of the day to justify receiving a paycheck. But here I receive no paycheck by writing the analysis, and I won't conjure up a reason to predict the market action when in fact I have no conviction.
Here is a joke. An elementary school boy asks the math teacher, "after you wrote on the whole blackboard to solve the problem, the end result is zero, so why did you spend the time doing nothing?" We all know that the solution to the math problem being zero does not mean that the math teacher did not spend time and efforts solving the problem. Similarly, the decision to provide no fundamental analysis for Tuesday's market action is a calculated decision.
Dr. Chen
Thank you for your comment and perhap a veiled question. Let me propose a question to myself and answer it.
"Why don't you have something substantive to say about Tuesday's market action?"
I have no basis to predict Tuesday's market action. Some days market moves due to non-economic events, and some days market action is random. To be a little sarcastic, I would come up with a "fundamental analysis" to my editor if I were a financial news reporter who would have to write something at the end of the day to justify receiving a paycheck. But here I receive no paycheck by writing the analysis, and I won't conjure up a reason to predict the market action when in fact I have no conviction.
Here is a joke. An elementary school boy asks the math teacher, "after you wrote on the whole blackboard to solve the problem, the end result is zero, so why did you spend the time doing nothing?" We all know that the solution to the math problem being zero does not mean that the math teacher did not spend time and efforts solving the problem. Similarly, the decision to provide no fundamental analysis for Tuesday's market action is a calculated decision.
Dr. Chen
Dr Chen,
Thank you for your kind and thoughtful reply to my veiled 'question'. You write like a old friend of mine, that loves to share his thoughts here, as I have been reading his style for a few years...
But it is obvious I was very wrong, please accept my deepest and most sincere apology.
I want to wish you the best of luck and I hope that this time you have better luck with your trades than in 07.
Thank you for your kind and thoughtful reply to my veiled 'question'. You write like a old friend of mine, that loves to share his thoughts here, as I have been reading his style for a few years...
But it is obvious I was very wrong, please accept my deepest and most sincere apology.
I want to wish you the best of luck and I hope that this time you have better luck with your trades than in 07.
Minor in Math had me take some interesting courses. Number Theory was one. The prof told us prior to the exam that the answer to every one of the 10 problems on a 3 hour final was either: zero or one
Obviously it was how you got there that was the entirety of the grade. Dr Chen, appreciate anyone offering their 2 cents. Please keep it up. Unfortunately this week, news got in the way. Close above 1100 today, I would cover those shorts. Personally looking for a rip right out of the gate on Tuesday the way this week ended.
-T31
I am a bit lost here - could you explain what you are analyzing?
Are you trying to anticipate reaction to reports and news releases? Wouldn't that be highly subjective, or is there a structured process that results in an objective projection?
Are you trying to anticipate reaction to reports and news releases? Wouldn't that be highly subjective, or is there a structured process that results in an objective projection?
MarketMarsher,
Thank you for your question.
I use the quote from the Aug. 30 Analysis to answer your question: "the Chicago PMI will likely surprise on the upside around 59, which will provide much needed confidence booster for the market to recoup all today's losses." As you can see, the Analysis was trying to predict the economic event and the ensuing market reaction to the extent that I had a conviction. Needless to say, this kind of Analysis is subjective.
Dr. Chen
Thank you for your question.
I use the quote from the Aug. 30 Analysis to answer your question: "the Chicago PMI will likely surprise on the upside around 59, which will provide much needed confidence booster for the market to recoup all today's losses." As you can see, the Analysis was trying to predict the economic event and the ensuing market reaction to the extent that I had a conviction. Needless to say, this kind of Analysis is subjective.
Dr. Chen