First an advantage, now a disadvantage - Crimea is perhaps Russia's biggest problem
Almost two and a half years after the start of the war, Crimea, which was illegally annexed in 2014, is becoming a burden for Russia. The Ukrainians are using ATACMS missiles against bases on the peninsula. Russia has therefore already built a replacement railway line for supplies.
For the Kremlin, Crimea has been a kind of unsinkable aircraft carrier since the bridge over the Kerch Strait to the Russian mainland was built. It is the perfect military and logistical hub for attacking Ukraine - at least in theory. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been militarily upgrading the annexed peninsula over the past ten years. It is both an air force base and an anchor point for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. From here, Russia can exert pressure on the south of Ukraine, move new soldiers to the front and control the Black Sea.
Actually, while Ukraine in the east of the country is under constant fire from the Russian army, Crimea is turning from a strategic advantage into a problem for Russia. The Ukrainian army is currently in the process of making the peninsula "uninhabitable," says former American general and NATO advisor Ben Hodges. The Ukrainians are currently relying on a "deadly combination of missiles and increasingly sophisticated drones" to systematically destroy Russian air defenses in Crimea, writes the British "Economist."
The Ukrainians recently hit the Belbek air base, near Sevastopol, the largest city in Crimea. The area around the Crimean capital Simferopol has also been hit several times recently. Dzhankoy Airport in the north of Crimea, where anti-aircraft forces and a helicopter regiment are stationed, has also been attacked several times. At the end of May, the Ukrainians also used the ATACMS to destroy two Russian patrol boats and two military transport ferries near the Crimean Bridge, which was opened in 2018 to connect Crimea with the Russian mainland.
Black Sea Fleet expelled or destroyed
The attacks are primarily aided by the long-range ATACMS missiles supplied by the USA. This gives Ukraine better attack options than in previous weeks.
Several attacks against the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which is stationed in the Crimean ports, were also successful. According to reports from various military analysts, around half of the fleet has now been destroyed by Ukrainian missiles and drones. The warships that are still functional have been moved over 300 kilometers away to the port of Novorossiysk on the Russian mainland. But this city in the Krasnodar region was also targeted by the Ukrainians a few weeks ago, who hit the naval base, a power plant and a train station there.
The Russians have great difficulty repelling ATACMS attacks: "The S-400 air defense system has proven to be inadequate," analyzes the "Economist." The Ukrainians are confusing the expensive and highly praised system by using drones to light up the Russian radars. As soon as this happens, the target data from the radar systems is immediately sent to the Ukrainian troops operating the ATACMS. Six minutes after the missiles are launched, they hit their targets.
Ukraine has the best chances in Crimea
Crimea has now become the Russians' Achilles heel in this war, writes German military expert Nico Lange on Platform X. This is where Ukraine has the best chances of exerting pressure on Putin. "Ukraine can currently only delay along the front lines. At the same time, however, it is maintaining pressure on Crimea and striking deep into the Russian depths."
"Ukraine is currently trying to make life in Crimea more difficult, create insecurity and deliberately destroy military facilities," analyzes Christian Mölling, deputy director of the research institute of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), in the Stern podcast "Die Lage International". The Ukrainians want "at least to ensure that Russia has to distribute its forces differently."
The attacks are particularly painful for Vladimir Putin because Crimea has had a huge symbolic significance for Russia since the 18th century, when Catherine the Great conquered the peninsula. Putin is being shown in Crimea "that Russia is not untouchable," explains military expert Fabian Hoffmann from the University of Oslo on ntv. "Of course, this also has a certain morale effect on the defenders."
Crimean bridge "doomed"?
For former NATO general Ben Hodges, it is even conceivable that the Ukrainians will one day destroy the Crimean bridge. Then the Russians would have significantly more problems getting supplies to the south of Ukraine.