Russia & Ukraine

[TreeFrogTrader]

The Ukrainians need to take down the Kerch Bridge and take the area approaching the land bridge to Crimea. Which will not only isolate Crimea but force more troops from the Donbass to go down and protect that area and the land bridge to it. The goal is not necessarily to take Crimea but to force the Russians to commit resources to its defense. The length of their line in the donetzk and lukansk regions is ungodly long and thin as it is already.

The only way that you will get Putin to back down on the Donbass it to beat him down enough so that he fears losing Crimea too. In other words, Crimea becomes the bargaining chip. Not the Donbass/east. The Ukrainians may not be able to accomplish that but they have nothing to lose. If there is some half arse settlement where Russia gets to keep the east. They will simply resupply, regroup and come for the rest of Ukraine later.

There is much talk about the west not being able to stay the course and that is a valid concern. Neverthess, we should not lean over backwards to make things easier for Vlad when he very clearly is up to his arse in problems. He is desperately and recklessly ordering all of his commanders to take the rest of Luhansk and Donetsk by the end of March. We have seen how it has gone in the past when he has had failures and started making ballsy demands and then lots of soldiers were killed and the senior commanders were replace and then replaced again. He is going into another one of those cycles. Let him wallow in it. Vlad is only making those demands because he knows that all the oligarchs, warlords, and hardliners are about to rip his head and his arse off if he does not deliver. That is his problem. It has already been noted that the west has its problems but he has PLENTY himself.

I don't know whether this talk about the west getting complacent helps or hurts Putin. It may give him some satisfaction off his bunker that he is wearing the west down, but it also sends a signal to the Ukrainians that they need to press on harder and faster while the support is still there and show that they can win. Vlad needs to worry about that too.

On the one year anniversary I see a lot of articles and talk about how the west failed to reduce Russia's economy. But I did not see a single article about how Russia's whole strategy was to break Europe in the winter but cutting off energy but Russia totally failed to accomplish that.

And I see all this reporting about how after a year Russia is still in the east so Ukraine has accomplished nothing. When in fact, Ukraine still stands as independent country and Russia is not in a position to take the whole country- or fight NATO.

My point is that eventually there will have to be a settlement reached but there is this continuous undercurrent in some articles and post that we do not want to make Putin mad and that he is able to do XYZ so lets just get real and give him what he wants right now. NOPE.
He has big problems and I am happy to watch have to deal with them for a while.

This bullshit about how if some guy in the next town over shells my house and property long enough and kills and rapes my family that I should be a flexible, kumbaya kind of person and settle my grievances by giving him a good slice of my property and disarming myself is just that- BULLSHIT. And yes, he has nukes. So does NATO and they should be and are on full alert. This is a war of necessity for Ukraine but it is a war of choice for Russia. You enter into a half arse peace deal with Russia, and Putin will come again when Xi moves on Taiwan and the US is spread thin. And believe me, he will want more than just Ukraine.

Let things get bad enough for Putin that the hardliners move him out or diminish his power. And then work something out with them. Or just use the chaos from the internal stife as a way of weakening or dividing their command structure. Plenty of that going on right as we speak.

 

[Nobert]

Inside Donetsk City orcs are safe no more

 

[Cuddles]

Inside Donetsk City orcs are safe no more

good. If the stalemate continues indefinitely, Ukraine should engage in these anti-colonialist tactics so the invaders don't feel safe settling in Ukrainian territories.

 

[Tony Stark]

Kennedy basically told Khrushev the US would declare war on Russia if they were to go ahead, a deal was made, no deal betwen Russia Ukraine and the US, so invasion went ahead, it is not difficulty to understand, surely.

So as I stated,The US didn't do to Russia or Cuba what Russia is doing to Ukraine.It is not difficult to understand, surely.

 

[Master Pu]

So as I stated,The US didn't do to Russia or Cuba what Russia is doing to Ukraine.It is not difficult to understand, surely.

Because they reached a compromise that included Cuba and Turkey, takes two to tango. In Ukraine, no compromise, hence the outcome. MSM never showed images of Ukrainians in Donbas that were killed by Ukraine’s democratic regime, we are only showed images of Ukrainians that suffered from Russian invasion. We are being spoon fed info that we are meant to know.

 

[Tony Stark]

Because they reached a compromise that included Cuba and Turkey, takes two to tango. In Ukraine, no compromise, hence the outcome. MSM never showed images of Ukrainians in Donbas that were killed by Ukraine’s democratic regime, we are only showed images of Ukrainians that suffered from Russian invasion. We are being spoon fed info that we are meant to know.

A sovereign nation not attacking anyone has no obligation to compromise with anyone.If your neighbor told you you had to give up part of your backyard to them or make some other deal with them to make them happy are you obligated to negotiate / compromise with them to keep the full use of your land?

 

[kashirin]

A sovereign nation not attacking anyone has no obligation to compromise with anyone.If your neighbor told you you had to give up part of your backyard to them or make some other deal with them to make them happy are you obligated to negotiate / compromise with them to keep the full use of your land?

If you neigbor married you sister and beats her everyday and refuses to stop this neighbour must be stopped by force
But if this neigbour does that because his older uncle gives him money for that and no reason to expect this behaviour ever end I think taking his backyard is quite appropriate

Ukraine is not a sovereign nation. It's completely controlled by the US and used as a weapon against Russia

 

[Tony Stark]

If you neigbor married you sister and beats her everyday and refuses to stop this neighbour must be stopped by force
But if this neigbour does that because his older uncle gives him money for that and no reason to expect this behaviour ever end I think taking his backyard is quite appropriate

Ukraine is not a sovereign nation. It's completely controlled by the US and used as a weapon against Russia

The sister could just leave the neighbor.

Ukraine is a sovereign nation.If Ukraine didn't attack Russia,Russia has no right to attack them.

 

[Cuddles]

The sister could just leave the neighbor.

Ukraine is a sovereign nation.If Ukraine didn't attack Russia,Russia has no right to attack them.

you see, the propagandist is saying that because Russia flooded eastern Ukraine with infiltrators and lobotomized separatists, that Putin now has the right to invade as Ukraine tries to cleanse the scourge

 

[Atlantic]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/25/europe/ukraine-war-three-key-weapons-intl-hnk/index.html

Three weapons that changed the course of Ukraine’s war with Russia

By Brad Lendon, CNN
Published 6:58 PM EST, Sat February 25, 2023

A High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) of the Ukrainian army is fired close to the front line in the northern Kherson region of Ukraine on November 5.

CNN —
When Russian President Vladimir Putin sent his forces into Ukraine a year ago, most observers expected a quick victory for the invaders.

Those early predictions of Russian success have not materialized, for what experts cite as a variety of factors, including higher morale and superior military tactics on the Ukrainian side but also – crucially – the supply of Western armaments.

While recent headlines have made much of the potential for Western battle tanks or Patriot air defense systems to influence the war’s outcome, these systems have yet to be used in combat in Ukraine.

But there are other weapons that have already helped to change the course of the war. Here are three key ones that the Ukrainians have used to devastating effect.

Ukrainain forces fire a Javelin anti-tank missile during drills at a training ground in 2022.

Javelin
At the very beginning of the war, fighters on both sides were expecting Russian armored columns to begin rolling into the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv within days.

The Ukrainians needed something that could blunt that attack – and found it in the form of the Javelin, a shoulder-fired, guided anti-tank missile that can be deployed by a single individual.

Part of its appeal lies in its ease of use, as manufacturer Lockheed Martin, which co-developed the missile with Raytheon, explains: “To fire, the gunner places a cursor over the selected target. The Javelin command launch unit then sends a lock-on-before-launch signal to the missile.”

The Javelin is a “fire and forget” weapon. As soon as its operator takes the shot, they are able to run for cover while the missile finds its way to the target.

This was particularly important in the early days of the war as the Russians tended to stay in columns when trying to enter urban areas. A Javelin operator could fire from a building or behind a tree and be gone before the Russians could fire back.

The Javelin is also good at targeting the weak spot of the Russian tanks – their horizontal surfaces – because its trajectory after launch sees it curve upwards then fall on the target from above, according to Lockheed Martin.

This could be seen in images early in the war of Russian tanks with their turrets blown off. Often, it was a Javelin that had done the damage.

Indeed, so great was the Javelins’ impact that two-and-a-half months into the war US President Joe Biden visited the Alabama plant where they are made to praise the workforce for their help in defending Ukraine.

“You’re making a gigantic difference for these poor sons of guns who are under such enormous, enormous pressure and firepower,” Biden said at the time.

There was one other advantage to the Javelins, particularly pertinent at the start of the war: they were politically acceptable.

“Their low cost and defensive usage make them politically easier for other countries to provide,” Michael Armstrong, an associate professor at Brock University in Ontario, wrote on the Conversation. “By contrast, governments disagree about sending more expensive offensive weapons like warplanes.”

HIMARS
The full US Army name is the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System. It’s “a full-spectrum, combat-proven, all-weather, 24/7, lethal and responsive, wheeled precision strike weapons system,” the US Army says.

That’s a mouthful, but to put it more plainly, HIMARS is a 5-ton truck carrying a pod that can launch six rockets almost simultaneously, sending their explosive warheads well beyond the battlefield’s front lines, and then quickly change positions to avoid a counterstrike.

“If Javelin was the iconic weapon of the early phases of the war, HIMARS is the iconic weapon of the later phases,” Mark Cancian, senior adviser for the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International studies, wrote in January.

HIMARS fires munitions called the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) that have a range of 70 to 80 kilometers (about 50 miles). And their GPS guidance systems make them extremely accurate, within about 10 meters (33 feet) of their intended target.

Last July, Russian reporter Roman Sapenkov said he witnessed a HIMARS strike on a Russian base at Kherson’s airport in territory Moscow’s forces had occupied at the time.

“I was struck by the fact that the whole packet, five or six rockets, landed practically on a penny,” he wrote.

HIMARS has had two key effects, Yagil Henkin, a professor at the Israel Defense Forces Command and Staff College, wrote for the US Marine Corps University Press.

The strikes have forced “the Russians to move their ammunition depots farther to the rear, thereby reducing the available firepower of Russian artillery near the front lines and making logistical support more difficult,” Henkin wrote.

And using the long-range rockets to hit targets such as bridges has disrupted Russian supply efforts, he said.

The HIMARS system is manufactured and patented in the United States by Lockheed Martin.

A Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone at a rehearsal for a military parade dedicated to Independence Day in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Aug. 20, 2021.

Bayraktar TB2 drone
The Turkish-designed drone has become one of the world’s best-known unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) due to its use in the Ukraine war.

It’s relatively cheap, made with off-the-shelf parts, packs a lethal punch and records its kills on video.

Those videos have shown it taking out Russian armor, artillery and supply lines with the missiles, laser-guided rockets and smart bombs it carries.

“Viral videos of the TB2 are a perfect example of modern warfare in the TikTok era,” Aaron Stein, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, wrote on the Atlantic Council’s website.

The Bayraktar TB2 was not a “magic weapon,” but it was “good enough,” he wrote.

He cited as its weaknesses its lack of speed and vulnerability to air defenses. Battlefield statistics appear to bear that out. Seventeen of the 40 to 50 TB2s that Ukraine has received have been destroyed in combat, according to the Oryx open source intelligence website.

But Stein says the number of losses are outweighed by the low cost of the drone, which means they can be relatively easily replaced.

Indeed, a plan to set up an assembly line for the drones in Ukraine was in the works even before the war. And using the drones potentially has saved the lives of Ukrainian pilots who would otherwise have had to carry out the missions.

Recent reports from Ukraine indicate the TB2 may be playing less of a role as Russian forces figure out how to combat it, yet its fans say it delivered when Ukraine’s position was most precarious.

Its videos of Russian kills were “a great morale booster,” Samuel Bendett, adjunct senior fellow at the Center of Naval Analyses Russia Studies (CNAS), told CNN early in the war.

“It’s a public relations victory.”

The TB2 even had a music video made about it. That’s the status it has attained among Ukrainians.