“Are you a gentleman” my Russian friend asked of me. I said, “No… I am not a gentleman!” and giggled while I made my next move.
We were playing a game of chess and while material was even and any possible checkmate was far off, I was in a strategically lost position. My opponent had strategically outmaneuvered me and not only gained space to my detriment, he had the initiative for opening up our mostly closed position. My opponent’s question was effectively asking for my resignation and to show respect for the game and our time. After I moved, my opponent quickly parried it, not that he even had to and again asked “Are you a gentleman”?
By any conceivable measure of long term strategic objectives being met by Russia invading Ukraine, it is seemingly fair to say Russia is positionally lost. The following are the cold, “reasonable” goals of war for those who see human lives and happiness as cheap and acquiring someone else’s land as a victory:
1. Improved national security through creation of space, or as additional “Buffer zone” as security against potentially hostile forces. Russia’s national security is reduced because economic sanctions causes reduced economic potential to support a large relative military while at the same time, border countries and their allies increase military spending, such as Germany now committing to spending 2% of GDP on its military.
2. Acquire the productive potential of the land and its people in order to increase economic potential. Judging by relative per capita productivity of Russia and its land, there does not seem to be much net productivity to be gained during even the best of circumstances. Ukraine is about as far as one can get from that. Ukrainian resolve, both within and outside Ukraine, including millions of Ukrainians living within Russia, not even quantifying the help from their worldwide friends, will ensure Ukrainian insurgency will be costly to Russian infrastructure, their military, and ultimately politically far beyond any potential to be gained. This is before even considering rebuilding costs.
3. Meta verse considerations include the development of cutting edge technologies and methods of inexpensively enhancing insurgency capabilities that could potentially be put to use in other Russian Republics. In other words, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine may have the potential to cause the breakup of Russia in the long term. In that case, so much for seemingly Nationalistic policies enhancing Russia’s global capabilities and position.
In order to preserve lives and to avoid potential escalation, it appears NATO should help Ukraine come up and negotiate a exit strategy for Putin. While anyone with a sense of justice will want to see Putin severely punished for the mass suffering he caused, a practical view may realize that time lost in getting Russia out of Ukraine are lives lost. As it is, Russia’s currency and equity markets have been hit hard, likely creating lasting damage, while Putin’s prestige has been crushed internationally with his credibility presumably diminished within Russia.
Perhaps the international community could ask: “Putin, are you a gentleman”?