US is reporting Russia is ready to go for full scale invasion that includes ten landing ships in the Black Sea with troops on board…
How will Putin play this? Start with an air campaign I suppose then staged invasion or simultaneous invasion. I’d say stages because the Ukrainians would be less likely to fully unload. Although staging it out can be dangerous for Russia and the Ukrainians could have a chance to fight off waves. None the less, we are the inflection point. I still say watch for cell signals to go down as the tell tale sign.
From our side of things, we could end up in a cyber world war. We all the allies are going to want to support Ukraine with intelligence and strategy and the Russians are going to want to thwart that and that can lead to a tit for tat involving multiple countries…
What clouds the determination of whether the movement of russian troops from the black sea is a prelude to moving on to all of Ukraine a bit, is that they most likely will be unloaded on the part of the coast that is in separatist territory. In which case, he needs those troops there just to hold and secure the separatist regions. There is already a battle line there based on the previous years of war but two thirds of the regions are outside the russian held sections- but are nevertheless part of the territory that Putin just said is now independent. What to do? Enter, Russian troops.
Again, the point being that he has work to do there with those troops, even if, he does not plan or yet plan to take all of Ukraine. So it is definitely game on- ie Putin has taken part of Ukraine and intends to occupy it with russian troops- done/in progress. Not yet game on for taking all of Ukraine. Give it another hour. Little joke there. OR NOT.
, out and about maskless and free.