Russia & Ukraine

TreeFrogTrader said:
What clouds the determination of whether the movement of russian troops from the black sea is a prelude to moving on to all of Ukraine a bit, is that they most likely will be unloaded on the part of the coast that is in separatist territory. In which case, he needs those troops there just to hold and secure the separatist regions. There is already a battle line there based on the previous years of war but two thirds of the regions are outside the russian held sections- but are nevertheless part of the territory that Putin just said is now independent. What to do? Enter, Russian troops.

Again, the point being that he has work to do there with those troops, even if, he does not plan or yet plan to take all of Ukraine. So it is definitely game on- ie Putin has taken part of Ukraine and intends to occupy it with russian troops- done/in progress. Not yet game on for taking all of Ukraine. Give it another hour. Little joke there. OR NOT.
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Supply lines, fuel, food, local displeasure are all factors. Russia has a huge force and keeping it all sitting is a task onto itself.

To the point of intelligence sharing, US global hawks are sweeping Donbas right now with a lot of intensity.

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CaptainObvious said:
Better than 100 days I have wandered the cyber abyss looking for truth. Having consulted with many a internet mystic and shaman on my near ayahuasca type journey I am ready to return. Having delved deep into the ID and beyond the primitive mind my insights should be a great import to you. Hopefully your ape like minds will be able to comprehend my genius. Prepare yourselves, this will be epic.
War is upon us. When all else fails they always take us to war.
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I think its 50-50 WWIII has officially started
 
UsualName said:
Supply lines, fuel, food, local displeasure are all factors. Russia has a huge force and keeping it all sitting is a task onto itself.

To the point of intelligence sharing, US global hawks are sweeping Donbas right now with a lot of intensity.

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that’s because they want us to see, once bullets start to fly, drones are the first to drop.
 
You would think US would have learnt lesson by now where they supported corrupt Afghans now we have corrupt Ukraines to support.
Makes one wonder how much US weapons will be sold to Ruskies.
 
mervyn said:
Have we ever considered the end game with this conflict? I mean once Russian is going in, they will chop the comedian’s head off. All these sanctions are less bit of the problem. If lot of their servicemen got killed by American weapons, Ukraine army formation will be wiped. No one in Europe will have oil.
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First of all that comedian is a democratically elected President. Cutting his head off or murdering him is an attack on democracy and the rule of law everywhere.

It’s a question to be asked, what will happen with Ukrainian defense forces. I said before my biggest concern is they fold up and my second biggest concern is they unload. My guess is they will cede and attack, and look to big the Russians down where they can. But if Russia wants the whole Ukraine or anything in between they should be able to take it.

Oil, Russia has that funky Brent crude, not the easiest to process and they have been selling at a discount. Putin has stashed a lot of foreign currency, like $640 billion and some in gold. He can hold off sanctions and selling oil for a while but that doesn’t necessarily mean Europe will be out of oil. Other oil producers need Europe to function economically for a strong oil market. Globally speaking, oil producers will want a stable market. This is not saying that oil won’t skyrocket, just don’t expect oil to go dry in Europe either.
 
Tony Stark said:
I think its 50-50 WWIII has officially started
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I suspect you're correct. How long it's takes to spread from there to here will depend how much Russia suffers the first blows of economic and cyber hits. Then we'll get something along the lines of an east coast power grid failure, couple of mysterious flash crashes in the market. Add in a fuel shortage which will bring new meaning to the term "gas wars" given the incivility of the general population. Spirals into a real shitshow relatively quick after that. Joe and Kamala better have their "A" game on and get in front of this before we pass the tipping point, and it takes on a life of its own after that. Five will get you 10 that we already passed it.
 
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