Peter Zeihan
@PeterZeihan
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1h
Russian President Vladimir Putin has in essence declared a formal cold war with the West, while also making clear his belief that an independent Ukraine should not exist. My latest: https://bit.ly/33C7vIe
yes literally. but Trump declared Cold War with China in 2017, Obama declared Cold War with Russian in 2014. I am afraid that the average guys like you and me are taking financial hits.
This his normal route do something to an extent that it is provocative but not blatant. .
"Not blatant" meaning that it will not be responded to as such. Otherwise, recognizing the disputed regions as separate countries is about as blatant as you can get. Gee, I wonder if it would be considered to be blatant if the US recognized Quebec as a separate country next week. But Putin knows that DC/Biden are pre-wired to not see or minimize things if there is any chance, and this is Putin's ticket to current and future moves. Whether that be yesterday, tomorrow or the whole coming decade.
Ain't nobody believing that Nordstream pipeline will not be up and running at some point and Vlad knows that. If dicking around today or the near term gives Germany and the US a chance to look ballsy, fine, whatever. Vlad is not thinking near term and has no need to. Just by creating all this uncertainty he has driven up energy prices so that he is making more even without the pipeline. He is holding a massive, massive number of cards and is a tough, smart cookie who is moving to a plan and always has. The exact opposite of the west. The Chinese are tough and moving to a plan as well. Not that I needed to point that out.
Putin is trying to walk in a gray area with his move to send in forces to Kremlin controlled areas of Ukraine. This his normal route do something to an extent that it is provocative but not blatant. He is looking for a reaction to act against. Kind of a muted start for Putin. It’s like Biden said if Putin, he has nuclear weapons and no friends.
We often say so and so is playing chess and the other guy is playing checkers. Putin is trying to play chess with this. He’s poking around and looking for a weakness. I know the neocon throwbacks are going to come in screaming “sanctions now!” but I don’t know if that’s the right move either. This move is t going has swimmingly as the Crimea went in Russia, with Russians dancing in the streets. Very somber in mother Russia today.
Where this goes, I don’t know. I’m reading the Nordstream is being suspended and that a mild winter with additional supplies of LNG from us have bolstered the Europeans reserves.