Russia & Ukraine
- Thread starter UsualName
- Start date
With my usual caveat that Ukraine is up to their arse in risks and being overwhelmed, I nevertheless say that this strike on Tokmak is most definitely not going to play well in Moscow.
Tokmak is a major military and civilian supply rail junction where various rail lines intersect. Their number one short to medium term goal in the last several months has been to take Tokmak. They have not taken it but -either because they have advanced more or have himars now- they have made a solid strike on it. Just having Tokmak in artillery range now is a bigtime problem for Russia. It will only get worse. Those rail lines are supplying lots of ruskies on the various fronts.
Tokmak is a little less than halfway from the Dnieper River to Melitopol/near the Sea of Asov which the Ukrainians would need to reach to cut off the land bridge. Tokmak is about to become the new "Bakhmut." The russians will do anything to hold on to it. If they lose it they will totally lose the rail lines. And if the Ukrainians get far enough along to actually occupy it, then they can reach Melitopol with Himars. It might take them until next spring to do it if they can- but the Russians need to make sure that does not happen or they will be in a tough spot. The Ukrainians will cut the land bridge, take out the Kerch Bridge and then they will be trapped. No guns, no vodka. No nothing.
As usual, the Russians get to fight back and stop it if they can. Stay sober though.
There is the view by some- the Russians and probably some here- that the Israel scenario will stand in the way of some of this. That could be true but we don't know that yet. More likely the Americans and NATO will just give them higher range missiles and fighter planes as a workaround for Congress potentially reducing funding or Israel taking all the oxygen out of the room. At least I think, the Russians need to worry about that. Last month Biden said Ukraine will just get a few ATACMS. He could waive his wand next week and decide and cave in to his military who are saying just give em all you have they will take out Tokmak sooner rather than later. The congressional funding thing is murky because Biden apparently just moves existing equipment from America's supplies when he wants something.
Ukrainian Artillery Just Blew Up A Russian Ammo Train Near Tokmak. Kyiv’s Troops Fought For Months To Make That Possible.
Ukrainian Artillery Just Blew Up A Russian Ammo Train Near Tokmak. Kyiv’s Troops Fought For Months To Make That Possible. (msn.com)
Tokmak is a major military and civilian supply rail junction where various rail lines intersect. Their number one short to medium term goal in the last several months has been to take Tokmak. They have not taken it but -either because they have advanced more or have himars now- they have made a solid strike on it. Just having Tokmak in artillery range now is a bigtime problem for Russia. It will only get worse. Those rail lines are supplying lots of ruskies on the various fronts.
Tokmak is a little less than halfway from the Dnieper River to Melitopol/near the Sea of Asov which the Ukrainians would need to reach to cut off the land bridge. Tokmak is about to become the new "Bakhmut." The russians will do anything to hold on to it. If they lose it they will totally lose the rail lines. And if the Ukrainians get far enough along to actually occupy it, then they can reach Melitopol with Himars. It might take them until next spring to do it if they can- but the Russians need to make sure that does not happen or they will be in a tough spot. The Ukrainians will cut the land bridge, take out the Kerch Bridge and then they will be trapped. No guns, no vodka. No nothing.
As usual, the Russians get to fight back and stop it if they can. Stay sober though.
There is the view by some- the Russians and probably some here- that the Israel scenario will stand in the way of some of this. That could be true but we don't know that yet. More likely the Americans and NATO will just give them higher range missiles and fighter planes as a workaround for Congress potentially reducing funding or Israel taking all the oxygen out of the room. At least I think, the Russians need to worry about that. Last month Biden said Ukraine will just get a few ATACMS. He could waive his wand next week and decide and cave in to his military who are saying just give em all you have they will take out Tokmak sooner rather than later. The congressional funding thing is murky because Biden apparently just moves existing equipment from America's supplies when he wants something.
Ukrainian Artillery Just Blew Up A Russian Ammo Train Near Tokmak. Kyiv’s Troops Fought For Months To Make That Possible.
Ukrainian Artillery Just Blew Up A Russian Ammo Train Near Tokmak. Kyiv’s Troops Fought For Months To Make That Possible. (msn.com)
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The former prisoner ex-Wagner mercenaries are returning to Russia and committing endless violent crimes.
'The Kremlin doesn't care': Ex-Wagner fighters cause havoc in Russia and the Caucasus
https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/10...ghters-cause-havoc-in-russia-and-the-caucasus
'The Kremlin doesn't care': Ex-Wagner fighters cause havoc in Russia and the Caucasus
https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/10...ghters-cause-havoc-in-russia-and-the-caucasus
Sounds like Pootie-Poots needs another half million troops -- just to hold on in Ukraine -- but conscripting them now may cost him the election. What a dilemma.
Russia won't announce an 'unpopular' troop mobilization until after Putin's reelection bid next year, UK intel predicts
https://www.businessinsider.com/rus...zation-before-putin-election-uk-intel-2023-10
Russia won't announce an 'unpopular' troop mobilization until after Putin's reelection bid next year, UK intel predicts
https://www.businessinsider.com/rus...zation-before-putin-election-uk-intel-2023-10
More pipeline shenanigans by Russia...
Finland says undersea gas pipeline 'deliberately damaged' - reports
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-gru-...any-ukraine-redut-investigation/32630705.html
Media in Finland are reporting that a leak has been discovered to the undersea gas pipeline between the country and Estonia - known as the Balticconnector.
Finnish daily newspaper Iltalehti is citing government sources as saying the damage is "not an accident".
It adds that officials in the country - which, like Estonia, is now a member of NATO - believe Russia is behind the attack.
Swedish public radio separately reported that the pipeline had been damaged and that the damage did not occur naturally, while also citing Finnish government sources.
===================================================
And now let's go to Russian State TV for the propaganda response...
Claims that Finland's undersea gas pipeline was 'deliberately damaged' by Russia are completely absurd, Starshina Yegor Uboomovitch of the 297th Underwater Demolitions Brigade said today from somewhere in the Gulf of Finland. "We would never, ever do such a thing, and to accuse us of some kind of nefarious act is simply hurtful," he said plaintively, with tears in his eyes and a fizzling bundle of explosives in his lap which he had apparently lit with his cigar. "We only hope that we can all come together in a spirit of-" Memorial services will be held next Thursday.
Finland says undersea gas pipeline 'deliberately damaged' - reports
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-gru-...any-ukraine-redut-investigation/32630705.html
Media in Finland are reporting that a leak has been discovered to the undersea gas pipeline between the country and Estonia - known as the Balticconnector.
Finnish daily newspaper Iltalehti is citing government sources as saying the damage is "not an accident".
It adds that officials in the country - which, like Estonia, is now a member of NATO - believe Russia is behind the attack.
Swedish public radio separately reported that the pipeline had been damaged and that the damage did not occur naturally, while also citing Finnish government sources.
===================================================
And now let's go to Russian State TV for the propaganda response...
Claims that Finland's undersea gas pipeline was 'deliberately damaged' by Russia are completely absurd, Starshina Yegor Uboomovitch of the 297th Underwater Demolitions Brigade said today from somewhere in the Gulf of Finland. "We would never, ever do such a thing, and to accuse us of some kind of nefarious act is simply hurtful," he said plaintively, with tears in his eyes and a fizzling bundle of explosives in his lap which he had apparently lit with his cigar. "We only hope that we can all come together in a spirit of-" Memorial services will be held next Thursday.
The Kremlin has created a Wagner replacement...
How Russia's GRU Set Up A Fake Private Military Company For Its War In Ukraine
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-gru-...any-ukraine-redut-investigation/32630705.html
Russian military intelligence is using a fictitious private military company (PMC) as a front to recruit and deploy soldiers for the Kremlin's war in Ukraine, an RFE/RL investigation has found.
The pseudo PMC, Redut, takes its name from the Russian word for "redoubt," a defensive military fortification or stronghold. It is widely described as a mercenary company akin to the Wagner Group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin before his death in a plane crash in August, and Washington has even imposed sanctions on an eponymous Russian legal entity.
Since a short-lived mutiny by Wagner in June and Prigozhin's death two months later, analysts have pointed to Redut as Wagner's potential replacement as Russia's most prominent private fighting force.
But the Russian forces operating under the Redut label in Ukraine are not part of an actual corporate network of the kind that Prigozhin used to operate Wagner with what Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed was some $1 billion in state funding.
In reality, what is known as Redut is a recruitment system for combat units that is coordinated and funded by the Russian military, in particular its intelligence agency, known as the GRU, according to the investigative documentary to be released on October 10 by Schemes and Systema, RFE/RL's Ukrainian and Russian investigative teams, respectively.
The combat units have been deployed in key Russian offensives in Ukraine following the full-scale invasion that Putin launched in February 2022.
The joint investigation by Schemes and Systema is based on a cache of exclusive battlefield records from one of these Redut units, as well as interviews with Redut fighters and their relatives, conversations with recruiters, and an analysis of Redut contracts, social media profiles of Redut mercenaries, and images and metadata from their mobile phones.
The records obtained by Schemes come from a Redut battalion called the Wolves, members of which were captured by Ukrainian forces in the eastern Kharkiv region in September 2022 and subsequently convicted of torturing Ukrainian civilians.
Following their January 2023 conviction, two of these fighters told Schemes in interviews from prison that they went to fight as part of the GRU's 16th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade.
The same two fighters -- Valentin Bych and Maksim Volvak -- said their battalion was directly led by a GRU officer with the call sign "Amur" who also gave the order to detain local residents for interrogations during which several were found by a Ukrainian court to have been tortured.
According to the convicted fighters, they were sent to Ukraine from a training facility in the Tambov region village of Trigulyai belonging to the GRU's 16th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade.
Internal records from the Wolves battalion obtained by Schemes also directly refer to the Wolves unit as part of the GRU, while two of the battalion members convicted of torture said they fought in Ukraine as part of Redut.
(Much more at above url)
How Russia's GRU Set Up A Fake Private Military Company For Its War In Ukraine
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-gru-...any-ukraine-redut-investigation/32630705.html
Russian military intelligence is using a fictitious private military company (PMC) as a front to recruit and deploy soldiers for the Kremlin's war in Ukraine, an RFE/RL investigation has found.
The pseudo PMC, Redut, takes its name from the Russian word for "redoubt," a defensive military fortification or stronghold. It is widely described as a mercenary company akin to the Wagner Group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin before his death in a plane crash in August, and Washington has even imposed sanctions on an eponymous Russian legal entity.
Since a short-lived mutiny by Wagner in June and Prigozhin's death two months later, analysts have pointed to Redut as Wagner's potential replacement as Russia's most prominent private fighting force.
But the Russian forces operating under the Redut label in Ukraine are not part of an actual corporate network of the kind that Prigozhin used to operate Wagner with what Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed was some $1 billion in state funding.
In reality, what is known as Redut is a recruitment system for combat units that is coordinated and funded by the Russian military, in particular its intelligence agency, known as the GRU, according to the investigative documentary to be released on October 10 by Schemes and Systema, RFE/RL's Ukrainian and Russian investigative teams, respectively.
The combat units have been deployed in key Russian offensives in Ukraine following the full-scale invasion that Putin launched in February 2022.
The joint investigation by Schemes and Systema is based on a cache of exclusive battlefield records from one of these Redut units, as well as interviews with Redut fighters and their relatives, conversations with recruiters, and an analysis of Redut contracts, social media profiles of Redut mercenaries, and images and metadata from their mobile phones.
The records obtained by Schemes come from a Redut battalion called the Wolves, members of which were captured by Ukrainian forces in the eastern Kharkiv region in September 2022 and subsequently convicted of torturing Ukrainian civilians.
Following their January 2023 conviction, two of these fighters told Schemes in interviews from prison that they went to fight as part of the GRU's 16th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade.
The same two fighters -- Valentin Bych and Maksim Volvak -- said their battalion was directly led by a GRU officer with the call sign "Amur" who also gave the order to detain local residents for interrogations during which several were found by a Ukrainian court to have been tortured.
According to the convicted fighters, they were sent to Ukraine from a training facility in the Tambov region village of Trigulyai belonging to the GRU's 16th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade.
Internal records from the Wolves battalion obtained by Schemes also directly refer to the Wolves unit as part of the GRU, while two of the battalion members convicted of torture said they fought in Ukraine as part of Redut.
(Much more at above url)
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Yep... Russia is blowing up more gas pipelines in the Baltic. A repeat of their previous behavior.
I wonder if Russia’s Navy will have to endure another “Smoking” incident in the near future?