Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

Quote from jem:

there were 5 to 10 point swings in the most slanted polls.
I have not had the time to check their samples... but this is the game.
I suspect they went to more balanced samples... and if necessary they will go back out to very slanted samples after the DNC just to act like Obama is in the lead again. When he really has never been (but for the slanted samples) .

this race has been very tight all along according to the three honest polls we have seen.

gallup
rasmuessen
PPP
More...

Even Rasmussen and Karl Rove electoral maps agree Obama has around 247 electoral votes,which means Romney would need to take nearly every swing state...good luck with that






Rasmussen electoral map

Obama 247

Romney 196

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard









Karl Rove

Obama 247

Romney 182


46834353.png
 
I invented the jem balance algo to show you the 10 polls you were citing were off base and slanted ... it turns out I was correct. the national polls are now virtually tied. So you are not citing them.

Now I tell you this about the electoral polls...
They lag the national polls. They will turn honest soon too.

You going to face this one truth....

It will all depend on the party turnout.
Independents favor Romney by just enough... you will have to turnout dems like you did in 2008.

do you think you are going to have a 2008 type turnout?
 
Quote from jem:

I invented the jem balance algo to show you the 10 polls you were citing were off base and slanted ... it turns out I was correct. the national polls are now virtually tied. So you are not citing them.

Now I tell you this about the electoral polls...
They lag the national polls. They will turn honest soon too.

You going to face this one truth....

It will all depend on the party turnout.
Independents favor Romney by just enough... you will have to turnout dems like you did in 2008.

do you think you are going to have a 2008 type turnout?
More...

The national polls are showing the convention and VP pick bump,which is much smaller then McCains and Obama is still ahead in most national polls since Ryan was picked



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_bounce


Convention bounce


A convention bounce or convention bump refers to a surge of support that U.S. presidential candidates in the Republican or Democratic party typically enjoy after the televised national convention of their party.[1] A presumptive nominee for president may also be said to experience a "VP bounce" after announcing his pick for vice president prior to the convention. The size and impact of convention bumps vary, but presidential candidates usually see at least a small uptick in their polling numbers coming out of their conventions.










No,I do not expect 2008 turn out,but Obama doesn't need 2008 turn out .He will have the turn out needed to win
 
you are not ahead when you are inside the margin.
its virtually tied.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Polls since Ryan was picked

Obama ahead in 9 polls,Romney ahead in 3
More...
 
Early polling results following the Republican National Convention suggest that any bounce that Mitt Romney got from the three days in Tampa was marginal at best.

The latest set of data came from Gallup on Monday morning.

Republicans overwhelmingly said the convention made them more likely to vote for Romney, although most would likely be voting for their nominee anyway. Democrats as predictably said the convention made them less likely to vote for Romney. Independents, a key group in any presidential election, were essentially split, with 36 percent saying the convention made them more likely to vote for Romney and 33 percent less likely -- although 30 percent said they don't know or that the convention made no difference.
 
Quote from Free Thinker:

Early polling results following the Republican National Convention suggest that any bounce that Mitt Romney got from the three days in Tampa was marginal at best.

The latest set of data came from Gallup on Monday morning.

Republicans overwhelmingly said the convention made them more likely to vote for Romney, although most would likely be voting for their nominee anyway. Democrats as predictably said the convention made them less likely to vote for Romney. Independents, a key group in any presidential election, were essentially split, with 36 percent saying the convention made them more likely to vote for Romney and 33 percent less likely -- although 30 percent said they don't know or that the convention made no difference.
More...

No bump from Ryan or the convention. No real changes in voting.

I find it funny, also, that the GoP choir who somehow think that paying to see that anti-Obama movie, just so some Hollywood types can laugh their way to the bank, will somehow swing anyone to the Ryan//romney ticket. No way, just another non event, but with popcorn.

and, as to polls, Gallup has the Romney speech as the worst ever.. Probably better to have a good President for another 4 years. Good, not great, but much better than the Ryan/Romney ticket.

and, we'll see Obama back in a solid lead after the convention. And, another bigger jump after the debates.
 
Quote from jem:

So far for the first time in months if not ever RCP has the national race as a tie.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

and some of the post convention polls have not yet been tallied. give it a few days.
More...


2 polls have been released since the convention.Rasmuessen has Romeny ahead,Gallup has Obama ahead




Obamas lead is bigger on intrade after Romneys convention then before







Obama is ahead in most polls and intrade since he picked his running mate








That is not good.McCain was ahead in most polls and intrade temporally after his convention and VP pick
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top