Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

Obama ahead in 19 polls,Romney ahead in 5

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Intrade -Obama + 21 !!!!!!!!!!

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RCP Obama + 126 electoral votes

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we only count honest polls which do not slant their sample sizes plus 7 to 20 points for the democrats.

if you wish to submit a poll for our consideration as and honest poll... we will be happy to review.

Note:
We do not count bookie sites with thin markets which got the Supreme Court decision completely wrong.
Quote from jem:

Jem Honest Polls...


Rasmussen Tracking Romney +4
Gallup Tracking Obama +2
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Quote from jem:

we will see many of these states swing Romney after the convention.
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Not likely.Its usually downhill for the challenger after the summer



http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/



"The other anomaly has been in the summer months — June, July and August. In these months, the polls have tended to low ball the position of the incumbent party’s candidate. In July polls, for instance, the incumbent-party candidate has trailed by an average of 4 points in elections since 1968. However, the incumbent-party candidate has actually won these elections by an average of a little more than 3 points. In other words, there has been a seven-point swing on average toward the incumbent party’s candidate from the July polls until November."
 
your piece discusses bumps that happens after conventions in July.
But we have not had the convention yet.
The incumbent gets a bump after the convention.
Romney will get the bump and it will stay, partially because of the timing partially because the economy may be going off the cliff the more it looks like Obama is going to win.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Not likely.Its usually downhill for the challenger after the summer



http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/



"The other anomaly has been in the summer months — June, July and August. In these months, the polls have tended to low ball the position of the incumbent party’s candidate. In July polls, for instance, the incumbent-party candidate has trailed by an average of 4 points in elections since 1968. However, the incumbent-party candidate has actually won these elections by an average of a little more than 3 points. In other words, there has been a seven-point swing on average toward the incumbent party’s candidate from the July polls until November."
More...
 
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Thursday, August 09, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 43%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided...
 
Quote from Yannis:

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Thursday, August 09, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 43%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided...
More...

Rasmussen often had McCain ahead as well







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