Really ?
From the 2008 presidential election.March 2008 to election day.8 out of the 9 polls are from registered voters
Romney Looks Like the Next Pres
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
Really ?
From the 2008 presidential election.March 2008 to election day.8 out of the 9 polls are from registered voters
1. that is the issue - your skewed polls keep the spread but arbitrary boost dems up to 47 48 or 49. Which is what skews the polls.
So when the boost dems and repubs a bit but take out Independents... most of whom lean Romney... it screws up the polls.
2. also note your party affiliation numbers are very old. 4 years or more.
all the recent polls say dems have lost 6 to 10 points of voters.
Recent polls show there are more Rs than Ds.
So when the boost dems and repubs a bit but take out Independents... most of whom lean Romney... it screws up the polls.
2. also note your party affiliation numbers are very old. 4 years or more.
all the recent polls say dems have lost 6 to 10 points of voters.
Recent polls show there are more Rs than Ds.
Quote from AK Forty Seven:
What took them so long ?Polls with more democrats then republicans are nothing new
ABC News/Wash Post 8-23-2008.Obama +4
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/postpoll_082308.html
Democrats 36
Republicans 26
Broken polls can still be correct in a fluid election by pure conicidence... just like a broken clock.
by the way... if you were serious... you
would go back... see how those polls were constructed and compare that construction with party identification at that time.
2008 was the high water mark for dems.
By many counts the Dems have lost a very large percentage of voters.
by the way... if you were serious... you
would go back... see how those polls were constructed and compare that construction with party identification at that time.
2008 was the high water mark for dems.
By many counts the Dems have lost a very large percentage of voters.
Quote from AK Forty Seven:
Really ?
From the 2008 presidential election.March 2008 to election day.8 out of the 9 polls are from registered voters
Updated... In the 2010 midterms, the split was 35/35/30.
--
So if they constructed their polls like this - using likely voters... we might get some reasonable predictiions.
Note... when you factor leans back in these polls show a virtually evenly split electorate...
so
Bumping dems up to mid and high 40s and leaving Rs 7 to 11 points behind leads to shit poll results.
--
So if they constructed their polls like this - using likely voters... we might get some reasonable predictiions.
Note... when you factor leans back in these polls show a virtually evenly split electorate...
so
Bumping dems up to mid and high 40s and leaving Rs 7 to 11 points behind leads to shit poll results.
In the 2010 midterms, the split was 35/35/30.
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/05/22/wapoabc-poll-shows-dead-heat-between-romney-obama/
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/05/22/wapoabc-poll-shows-dead-heat-between-romney-obama/
Just to remind readers, the 2008 turnout split from exit polls showed a 39/32/29 split, and that was considered a nadir for Republican turnout. In the 2010 midterms, the split was 35/35/30.
Democrats usually have lower turnout in non presidential elections.Going from 39 % in a presidential election to 35 % in a non presidential election isnt unusual at all jem,its the norm
If you look it up, In 2009 there was a big debate about this.
gingrich brought it up before the 2010 elections. He argued using the 2008 numbers was wrong because that was the nadir for republicans and the apex for dems. the bloggers on the left and the media said he was wrong.
the result 35/35/30.
I predict the turnout will be even less favorable for dems.
Who the hell is going to vote for 4 more years of tax hikes, inflation and 15% real unemployment.
nevetheless if we get 35/35//30 Obama is down by 4 to 10 points right now.
gingrich brought it up before the 2010 elections. He argued using the 2008 numbers was wrong because that was the nadir for republicans and the apex for dems. the bloggers on the left and the media said he was wrong.
the result 35/35/30.
I predict the turnout will be even less favorable for dems.
Who the hell is going to vote for 4 more years of tax hikes, inflation and 15% real unemployment.
nevetheless if we get 35/35//30 Obama is down by 4 to 10 points right now.
Those who don't want more neo con wars,more military industrial complex spending,more tax cuts,the policies that led us to 15 % unemployment,trillion dollar deficits etc