Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

[jem]

that is not the national poll that HuffPo was just talking about.
that is old news as well.

Rassmuessen and Gallup use likely voters.
Something you crap polls will gravitate to by election time.

HuffPo is telling you this... your team...

"One caution regarding the national polls: Most are reporting results among all registered voters and have not yet attempted to narrow their samples to those Americans most likely to vote. Historically, polls of "likely voters" are a few points more Republican than those of all registered voters, a pattern that also appears in the latest crop of national polls.


The two pollsters that currently screen for likely voters both give Romney a narrow advantage. Moreover, other surveys have found greater engagement in and enthusiasm about the election among Republicans. So when pollsters do start narrowing to likely voters, the shift will likely boost Romney slightly."

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

you must be on vacation and using a spam bot to post that crap again.

And you want to ignore that Rasmussen had newt + 21 in December while intrade and other polls had Romney ahead as well as how bad rassmuessen was in a sample of 105 polls in the 2010 elections

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

that is not the national poll that HuffPo was just talking about.
that is old news as well.

Rassmuessen and Gallup use likely voters.

The difference is bigger then just likely voters jem




http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/





Rasmussen’s polls have come under heavy criticism throughout this election cycle, including from FiveThirtyEight. We have critiqued the firm for its cavalier attitude toward polling convention. Rasmussen, for instance, generally conducts all of its interviews during a single, 4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the phone rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones; does not call back respondents whom it misses initially; and uses a computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys. These are cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples.

Rasmussen also weights their surveys based on preordained assumptions about the party identification of voters in each state, a relatively unusual practice that many polling firms consider dubious

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:



Rassmuessen and Gallup use likely voters.
Something you crap polls will gravitate to by election time.

Whos the crap polls jem ?




From 2008


Rasmussen- Mccain + 1
Gallup -Obama +3


Time -Obama +5
AP-Ipsos -Obama +6
CNN -Obama +7
CBS Obama + 6
IBD Obama + 5




OBAMA WON BY + 7







Rasmussen off by 8 points !!!

Again Rasmussen is off the most !!!!

 

[jem]

You keep bringing up non national polls.
HuffPo and I are focusing on the accuracy of the national polls.
Your crap polls will eventually move to likely voters... til then they are crap polls.


Quote from jem:

From that conservative group the Huffington Post.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/..._n_1665876.html

"One caution regarding the national polls: Most are reporting results among all registered voters and have not yet attempted to narrow their samples to those Americans most likely to vote. Historically, polls of "likely voters" are a few points more Republican than those of all registered voters, a pattern that also appears in the latest crop of national polls.


The two pollsters that currently screen for likely voters both give Romney a narrow advantage. Moreover, other surveys have found greater engagement in and enthusiasm about the election among Republicans. So when pollsters do start narrowing to likely voters, the shift will likely boost Romney slightly."

Quote from jem:

I know I am right on the mark... when you bring out that same post for the 5th time.

and this has been my response.



http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?
The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.




Here is the list –

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:



Could they be in the JEM honest poll group?
They were...
Rasmuessen and Gallup.

More JEM honest poll group results from around this time in 2008





JEM honest poll group

Rasmuessen-Obama + 3
Gallup- Obama +3





Other polls

NBC- Obama +6
CBS News/NY Times Obama +6
ABC News/Wash Post Obama +3
Reuters/Zogby Obama +7
Quinnipiac Obama +9




Obama won by + 7







Once again The jem honest poll group the worse out of the group

 

[jem]

Your crap polls will eventually move to likely voters... til then they are crap polls.

Your polls probably changed their samples by the time you are taking a snap shot.

In recent elections the polls start to see the light a few days before the election... and then call it a momentum shift (to the right).

Reality is they change in the sample to get a better picture of reality.

The reality is moderates shifted from Bush and now they are shifting back again.






Quote from jem:

From that conservative group the Huffington Post.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/..._n_1665876.html

"One caution regarding the national polls: Most are reporting results among all registered voters and have not yet attempted to narrow their samples to those Americans most likely to vote. Historically, polls of "likely voters" are a few points more Republican than those of all registered voters, a pattern that also appears in the latest crop of national polls.


The two pollsters that currently screen for likely voters both give Romney a narrow advantage. Moreover, other surveys have found greater engagement in and enthusiasm about the election among Republicans. So when pollsters do start narrowing to likely voters, the shift will likely boost Romney slightly."

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

Your crap polls will eventually move to likely voters... til then they are crap polls.

So the polls that were closer to the actual results in July - Aug 2008 are the crap polls ? LOL !!!




Rasmussen- Mccain + 1
Gallup -Obama +3


Time -Obama +5
AP-Ipsos -Obama +6
CNN -Obama +7
CBS Obama + 6
IBD Obama + 5




OBAMA WON BY + 7






The jem honest polls the worse out of the group

The jem polls might be honest,but they have the worse results

 

[jem]

you took a snapshot back in time and want us to extrapoloate what about the predictive nature of those polls?

That is joke - no wonder your images ran counter to the Fordham study.

even a broken clock is correct twice a day.

If you have changing polls and a changing race... even the shit polls can get it right once in a while.


you have been spamming shit all day.. not your typical style on this thread.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

So the polls that were closer to the actual results in July - Aug 2008 are the crap polls ? LOL !!!




Rasmussen- Mccain + 1
Gallup -Obama +3


Time -Obama +5
AP-Ipsos -Obama +6
CNN -Obama +7
CBS Obama + 6
IBD Obama + 5




OBAMA WON BY + 7






The jem honest polls the worse out of the group

The jem polls might be honest,but they have the worse results

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:



If you have changing polls and a changing race... even the shit polls can get it right once in a while.


you have been spamming shit all day.. not your typical style on this thread.

You're getting angry and using foul language jem, not your typical style on this thread