Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

Quote from jem:

I know I am right on the mark... when you bring out that same post for the 5th time.

and this has been my response.



http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?
The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.




Here is the list –

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
More...





Again jem,that is the result of 1 poll,I repeat 1 poll,the day before the election.The polls in the survey were correct within 1.37 % so most of that polls did well in that survey



This is Rasmussens results with a sample of over 100 polls ,3 weeks from an election

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/



Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate




Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.


The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.












This is a sample of Rasmussens accuracy months before an election.In December Intrade and most polls had Romney winning the GOP nomination,Rasmussen had Newt by +21


95405378.png
 
Quote from jem:

I know I am right on the mark... when you bring out that same post for the 5th time.

and this has been my response.



More...

Your response is to argue their one good poll result against their numerous bad poll results. Reminds me of snake oil stock system sellers
 
From that conservative group the Huffington Post.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/11/obama-romney-polls-july_n_1665876.html

"One caution regarding the national polls: Most are reporting results among all registered voters and have not yet attempted to narrow their samples to those Americans most likely to vote. Historically, polls of "likely voters" are a few points more Republican than those of all registered voters, a pattern that also appears in the latest crop of national polls.


The two pollsters that currently screen for likely voters both give Romney a narrow advantage. Moreover, other surveys have found greater engagement in and enthusiasm about the election among Republicans. So when pollsters do start narrowing to likely voters, the shift will likely boost Romney slightly."
 
Thesis confirmed. They do switch to more accurate samples.

So AK you going to argue with the Huffington Post or you can to acknowledge your polls are off.

Also note... many of AK rigged polls are not even limiting their samples to registered voters yet.
 
Quote from jem:



So AK you going to argue with the Huffington Post or you can to acknowledge your polls are off.
More...


IMO Rasmussen is off the most as they usually are and Intrade is most accurate





Rasmussen -Newt +21


RCP average -Newt +6


Intrade -Romney+12


95405378.png
 
you must be on vacation and using a spam bot to post that crap again.

HuffPo just told you your polls will change their samples to resemble Rasmuessen.

Quote from jem:

I know I am right on the mark... when you bring out that same post for the 5th time.

and this has been my response.



http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?
The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.




Here is the list –

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
More...
 
I will repost this.. if you are going to repost your crap.
Who do you think those two pollsters are?

Could they be in the JEM honest poll group?
They were...
Rasmuessen and Gallup.

Quote from jem:

From that conservative group the Huffington Post.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/11/obama-romney-polls-july_n_1665876.html

"One caution regarding the national polls: Most are reporting results among all registered voters and have not yet attempted to narrow their samples to those Americans most likely to vote. Historically, polls of "likely voters" are a few points more Republican than those of all registered voters, a pattern that also appears in the latest crop of national polls.


The two pollsters that currently screen for likely voters both give Romney a narrow advantage. Moreover, other surveys have found greater engagement in and enthusiasm about the election among Republicans. So when pollsters do start narrowing to likely voters, the shift will likely boost Romney slightly."
More...
 
Quote from jem:



HuffPo just told you your polls will change their samples to resemble Rasmuessen.
More...


No they wont jem,other polls dont do this


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/





Rasmussen’s polls have come under heavy criticism throughout this election cycle, including from FiveThirtyEight. We have critiqued the firm for its cavalier attitude toward polling convention. Rasmussen, for instance, generally conducts all of its interviews during a single, 4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the phone rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones; does not call back respondents whom it misses initially; and uses a computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys. These are cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples.

Rasmussen also weights their surveys based on preordained assumptions about the party identification of voters in each state, a relatively unusual practice that many polling firms consider dubious
 
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