Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

Quote from jem:

your polls are mostly oversampling dems by 7-11 points and dems do not lead in population percentage.

You wish to deny Rasmuessen when it stays repubs are now leading... but here is gallup.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states


As of 2010, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, 29% as Republicans, and 38% as independents.[3] By 2011 Gallup found that Americans identifying as independents had risen to 40 percent. Gallup's historical data show that the proportion of independents in 2011 was the largest in 60 years. This increase came at the expense of Republican identification, which dropped to 27%, while Democratic identification held steady from 2011. Nevertheless, more American independents leaned to the Republican Party when compared to the Democratic Party. Combining leaners with each party's core identifiers, for 2011 the parties ended up tied at 45 percent.[4]
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You are relying on polling data to refute the value of polling data.
 
Quote from jem:

USA today
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-12/2012-election-swing-states-poll/51844930/1

Consider the math: In 2008, when Obama carried the swing states by 8 percentage points, Democrats there swamped Republicans in party identification by 11 points. Now, that partisan edge has tightened to a statistically insignificant 2 points.
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1.Thats a poll,not actual voter registration

2.Even that poll has dems +2

Actual voter registration from many states in 2012 have more dems.


Again,this is actual 2012 voter registration not polls






http://elkodaily.com/democrats-outp...cle_a53e09de-a78b-11e1-ae8e-001a4bcf887a.html




Democrats outpace GOP in voter registrations


CARSON CITY (AP) — Nevada Democrats outpaced Republicans in new voter registrations leading up to the state primary.

The secretary of state's office Friday reports that from May 1 through May 22 when primary registration closed, Democrats registered 4,322 active voters, compared with 2,254 registered by Republicans. The number of active registered nonpartisans increased by 2,544 during the same time period.

Statewide, Democrats now hold a 38,792 voter advantage over Republicans. But the gap is far less than the 100,000 voter edge Democrats had going into the 2008 general election.







http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/state/gop-closes-in-on-democrats-in-florida-voter-2107649.html

Jan. 17, 2012


Figures released by the Division of Elections today show Florida has 11.2 million voters, with 40.5 percent registered as Democrats and about 36.2 percent as Republicans. The gap of 4.3 percentage points between Democratic and Republican registrations compares to a 5.8-point gap that favored Democrats heading into the 2008 presidential election.







http://www.pagop.org/2012/01/as-parties-lose-voters-republicans-chip-away-at-democrats-advantage/


Pennsylvania-January 20th, 2012


In November 2006, Democrats held a roughly 600,000-voter edge with 3.9 million registered voters to the Republicans’ 3.3 million. The number now stands at 4.1 million Democrats to 3 million Republicans.

The 2012 election will come down to turnout, he said. With a margin that still tops 1.1 million, Democrats have a huge advantage if they can motivate those voters to show up at the polls. But by narrowing that advantage, Republicans put more pressure on the turnout effort, he said.
 
The majority of the detail in these polls is just plain useless. Trends are good, but details are too fuzzy.

If by any miracle O manages to stay close to R and not drop by a lot by the time elections get here, which is doubtful, R wins because the undecideds will, as always, vote against the incumbent president, O. After all, they know O well, and if they are undecided still, it's for a reason... like not wanting to admit their opposition because of the lengths that liberal media went to brand everyone who opposes Obama a racist.
 
Quote from Yannis:

If by any miracle O manages to stay close to R and not drop by a lot by the time elections get here, which is doubtful, R wins because the undecideds will, as always, vote against the incumbent president, O.
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I guess thats why presidential incumbents lose so often...ohh wait
 
ak - logically polls are more accurate than stale voter rolls if the polls are done properly. .

richter - your riddles are weak. a recent poll if done correctly can be far more accurate than years old voter rolls.

My argument with some of the current polls is the fact they are over representing dems in the sample size. By 7-11 points.

so if the polls show more repubs than dems or an even amount... than the polls are validating my thesis about the polls over sampling dems in polls.



Quote from jem:



they are filled with dead people, fake people, people who are now independents and republicans who have not bothered to make a formal change.

Your old school stats vs the recent polls showing more republicans and dems do not reconcile any other way.

Its why Florida is purging their rolls. The voter rolls are stale.
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Quote from AK Forty Seven:

I guess thats why presidential incumbents lose so often...ohh wait
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For those unaware elected presidents win re re election 74 % of the time

Presidents during a time of war won re election 100 % of the time
 
And presidents with unemployment over 8% never win, one of these stats is going to be broken.....


Quote from AK Forty Seven:

For those unaware elected presidents win re re election 74 % of the time

Presidents during a time of war won re election 100 % of the time
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