Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

[Max E.]

We have already went over that, of course it closes the most accurately, because as PSPR pointed out, just like with options, by the time it closes the outcome is known. If you look at the options market right before options ex, the options are trading almost perfectly inline with their intrinsic value.

That doesnt necessarily mean its always the most accurate, even with 6 months till the election, it simply means that the market eventually gets to the point where it reflects the actual outcome.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Compare Intrade to any political poll and Intrade comes out on top nearly every time

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Max E. Pad:

We have already went over that, of course it closes the most accurately, because as PSPR pointed out, just like with options, by the time it closes the outcome is known. If you look at the options market right before options ex, the options are trading almost perfectly inline with their intrinsic value.

That doesnt necessarily mean its always the most accurate, even with 6 months till the election, it simply means that the market eventually gets to the point where it reflects the actual outcome.

Its more accurate by fair comparison to any other poll.For instance Rasmussen picked Obama to win,But intrade had Obama winning for more days then Rasmussen,picked more states to win then rasmussen etc

In April of 2008 Rasmussen had Obama winning some days and McCain winning by as much as +7 on some days,Intrade had Obama winning the entire month

 

[Max E.]

LOL, i was thinking when they finally got rid of that National Journal Poll that had Obama +8 that Romney would finally be leading.

Then they replace the national journal poll with this b.s. Reuters/Ipsos poll which shows Obama leading by 7 with a 9 Point skew to the democrats.....

 

[jem]

1. I went to GW undergrad so I spent some time on this poll.

a seperate poll released by Politico and George Washington University on Monday found that Romney led Obama by one point -- 48 percent to 47 percent -- among registered voters, including a 10-point lead among independents.

as you look at the poll samples

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/05/bg_47_tables.html

I call your attention to all the data they collect from a random call and how easily they could really manipulate the results by calling rabid dems over moderate dems or vice versa.

Finally, I would never give a pollster that much time or info.

I suspect these polls eliminate working tax payers by the very nature of the inquires.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

but is it enough with enough size to get me to register and memorialize what may be an illegal bet. With corresponding chance of going to jail or other sanction, losing my license or not getting paid....

Nope... not even close.

In other words as much as you claim Romney will win on ET you will never put your money behind that opinion

Thats one of the reasons intrade is more accurate then all polls imo,you have to put your money behind your opinion

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Max E. Pad:



I remember watching the debates and everytime Gingrich would bust out a couple good lines, his contract would go way up, you could have made a killing just shorting him after every debate if you could get any kind of size off.

While newts numbers bounced on intrade,he NEVER pulled ahead of Romney on intrade

Rasmussen on the other hand had Gingrich ahead of Romeny many times


Rasmussen.Newt + 21

Rasmussen.Newt + 7

NEWT NEVER TAKES THE LEAD ON INTRADE

While Rasmussen had Newt + 21 Intrade had Romney +12

 

[Max E.]

You could just as easily say that Intrade is wildly inaccurate for putting Gingrich at 36% at one point. Everyone knew Gingrich didnt have a hope in hell, On Intrade one person can be buying all the contracts and moving the market, all that it would have meant was that some big buyer could have been committed to betting on Romney and he was absorbing as many contracts as possible. There was ojnly 76k contracts outstanding on Romney so one person wanting to place a massive bet could have been holding him up the whole time.

Comparing Intrade to polls at this point is stupid, a poll is 1 person 1 vote, on intrade 1 person can represent half the market, especially when the market is trading very few contracts in a day.

Like I said before both the polls and Intrade dont mean a hell of a lot at this point because both are fluid, and anything can happen, the closer it gets to election day, the more value it holds. As it stands right now it is a dead heat, in terms of the popular vote, you could eliminate the Rasmussen poll, and the Reuters poll and its basically a toss up.

The reason I think Obama has a slight advantage right now is because of the electoral college, but that still isnt worth the edge Intrade is giving him.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

.....

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Max E. Pad:

You could just as easily say that Intrade is wildly inaccurate for putting Gingrich at 36% at one point.

I'm not comparing intrade to a crystal ball,just to other political polls.Yes they were inaccurate for having Newt within 12 points of Romney,but they were never as inaccurate as Rasmussen having Newt ahead of Romney by +21

 

[jem]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

In other words as much as you claim Romney will win on ET you will never put your money behind that opinion

Thats one of the reasons intrade is more accurate then all polls imo,you have to put your money behind your opinion

bull shit... you put 3000 in escrow, I will put in 1000 and I will pay the escrow fees. It will be for internet services.

 

[Max E.]

Comparing Intrade to polls at this point is stupid, a poll is 1 person 1 vote, on intrade 1 person can represent half the market, especially when the market is trading very few contracts in a day.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

I'm not comparing intrade to a crystal ball,just to other political polls.Yes they were inaccurate for having Newt within 12 points of Romney,but they were never as inaccurate as Rasmussen having Newt ahead of Romney by +21