Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Max E. Pad:



According to intrade the contract traded 642 shares today

Thats just for the Obama contract(its at 842 now)Romney contract has over 1,000.If you add the volume from the romney contract,the dem or republican to win contracts its more volume per day then the polls

 

[JamesL]

Quote from Max E. Pad:

The Romney contract is basically paying 3-1 right now, id say thats pretty good odds if you think Romney is going to win, if he does you get a 300% gain.

The Romney bet is ~37% right now. Before Nov, it will cross 50 once or twice (may stay there?). Even McCain crossed 50 when he picked Palin.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/intradeTV/

I'll take 33% gain for 4-6 months.

 

[pspr]

Intrade is a floating market just like any other. Of course it ends up accurate since the participants know the outcome at the end of the event. Just like a stock option. Take a look at this contract on the likelyhood of Osama Bin Laden being captured or killed. You can see it ended correctly but until the event took place the contract was wrong.

<img src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/05/02/business/economy/economix-02osamaintrade/economix-02osamaintrade-custom1.jpg">

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/bin-laden-and-inefficient-markets/

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from pspr:

Intrade is a floating market just like any other. Of course it ends up accurate since the participants know the outcome at the end of the event. Just like a stock option. Take a look at this contract on the likelyhood of Osama Bin Laden being captured or killed. You can see it ended correctly but until the event took place the contract was wrong.

<img src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/05/02/business/economy/economix-02osamaintrade/economix-02osamaintrade-custom1.jpg">

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/bin-laden-and-inefficient-markets/

For starters that is a uncertain event,a presidential election is not

 

[jem]

Quote from Max E. Pad:

The Romney contract is basically paying 3-1 right now, id say thats pretty good odds if you think Romney is going to win, if he does you get a 300% gain.

but is it enough with enough size to get me to register and memorialize what may be an illegal bet. With corresponding chance of going to jail or other sanction, losing my license or not getting paid....

Nope... not even close.

 

[Max E.]

Thats not the same thing as a poll, not even close, the same one person could have bought all 800 contracts, plus people who arent going to vote for Obama could be buying contracts on him to win.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Thats just for the Obama contract(its at 842 now)Romney contract has over 1,000.If you add the volume from the romney contract,the dem or republican to win contracts its more volume per day then the polls

 

[Max E.]

Do you know if Intrade accepts american credit cards? I know none of the poker companies will anymore, but im looking at these odds and starting to get tempted.

Quote from jem:

but is it enough with enough size to get me to register and memorialize what may be an illegal bet. With corresponding chance of going to jail or other sanction, losing my license or not getting paid....

Nope... not even close.

 

[Max E.]

I agree with you, and i have said it many times, i think that if you really want to go long Obama the time to do it would be right after Romney picks his VP, as Intrade tends to react sharply to news, then retrace.

I remember watching the debates and everytime Gingrich would bust out a couple good lines, his contract would go way up, you could have made a killing just shorting him after every debate if you could get any kind of size off.

Intrade actually seems like a golden market for a reversion trader, but its all a matter of whether or not you could get the size off to make it worthwhile.

Quote from JamesL:

The Romney bet is ~37% right now. Before Nov, it will cross 50 once or twice (may stay there?). Even McCain crossed 50 when he picked Palin.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/intradeTV/

I'll take 33% gain for 4-6 months.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Max E. Pad:

Thats not the same thing as a poll, not even close, the same one person could have bought all 800 contracts, plus people who arent going to vote for Obama could be buying contracts on him to win.

Compare Intrade to any political poll and Intrade comes out on top nearly every time

 

[murray t turtle]

Rick Santorum just endorsed Gov Romney