Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

It seems to me this storm may have been timed perfectly to create maximum frustration with Obama's and the federal govts incompetence.

Do any of really think that the federal govt got better at natural disasters?
Have they overturned price gouging laws.
Has FEMA sufficiently improved the power grid?
Has Obama allowed more power generation to happen?

the question is will the media allow enough of the frustration on t.v.
 
Quote from jem:

It seems to me this storm may have been timed perfectly to create maximum frustration with Obama's and the federal govts incompetence.

Do any of really think that the federal govt got better at natural disasters?
Have they overturned price gouging laws.
Has FEMA sufficiently improved the power grid?
Has Obama allowed more power generation to happen?

the question is will the media allow enough of the frustration on t.v.
More...
Great point. The next few days are going to be nothing but frustration and pain for NY. Let's keep seeing it play out on TV.
 
http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/31/on-polling-models-skewed-unskewed/

great article discusses money ball and why nate silvers averaging of the polls top lines... is probably wrong...

he basically explains what we have been saying here for months... but does it in a very academic way...


here is his conclusion.


Conclusion

We can’t know until Election Day who is right. I stand by my view that Obama is losing independent voters decisively, because the national and state polls both support that thesis. I stand by my view that Republican turnout will be up significantly from recent-historic lows in 2008 in the key swing states (Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado) and nationally, because the post-2008 elections, the party registration data, the early-voting and absentee-ballot numbers, and the Rasmussen and Gallup national party-ID surveys (both of which have solid track records) all point to this conclusion. I stand by my view that no countervailing evidence outside of poll samples shows a similar surge above 2008 levels in Democratic voter turnout, as would be needed to offset Romney’s advantage with independents and increased GOP voter turnout. And I stand by the view that a mechanical reading of polling averages is an inadequate basis to project an event unprecedented in American history: the re-election of a sitting president without a clear-cut victory in the national popular vote.

Perhaps, despite the paucity of evidence to the contrary, these assumptions are wrong. But if they are correct, no mathematical model can provide a convincing explanation of how Obama is going to win re-election. He remains toast.
 
Quote from jem:

http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/31/on-polling-models-skewed-unskewed/
More...

An ability to question assumptions is a huge asset. Einstein pretty muchly did that maybe, it may have been the biggest factor in his success. He questioned the assumptions about what was the dependent variable and what was the independent variable and came to his own conclusions.

I love the work done by others that question assumptions. Schliemann is remembered for messing up Troy's remains. The academics of his day, and ours, simply assumed that all ancient writings were myths. They were wrong and still are. Schliemann questioned that assumption in all their thinking, used ancient writings to find Troy and looted it. I love the guy for that. Academics are still decrying the fact that he didn't let the "professionals" have his find! Similar work is going on right now in the area of understanding the universe. Some people are looking at the idea that there is an electrical model of everything that involves capacitance between heavenly objects. They are predicting events. They are incurring the wrath of the established experts!!

It's just crazy how people can't question their own assumptions and how crazy they are when somebody else does so, and proves them wrong.
 
interesting... nice analysis.


An ability to question assumptions is a huge asset. Einstein pretty muchly did that maybe, it may have been the biggest factor in his success. He questioned the assumptions about what was the dependent variable and what was the independent variable and came to his own conclusions.

I love the work done by others that question assumptions. Schliemann is remembered for messing up Troy's remains. The academics of his day, and ours, simply assumed that all ancient writings were myths. They were wrong and still are. Schliemann questioned that assumption in all their thinking, used ancient writings to find Troy and looted it. I love the guy for that. Academics are still decrying the fact that he didn't let the "professionals" have his find! Similar work is going on right now in the area of understanding the universe. Some people are looking at the idea that there is an electrical model of everything that involves capacitance between heavenly objects. They are predicting events. They are incurring the wrath of the established experts!!

It's just crazy how people can't question their own assumptions and how crazy they are when somebody else does so, and proves them wrong. [/QUOTE]
 
Quote from jem:

http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/31/on-polling-models-skewed-unskewed/

great article discusses money ball and why nate silvers averaging of the polls top lines... is probably wrong...

he basically explains what we have been saying here for months... but does it in a very academic way...


here is his conclusion.


Conclusion

We can’t know until Election Day who is right. I stand by my view that Obama is losing independent voters decisively, because the national and state polls both support that thesis. I stand by my view that Republican turnout will be up significantly from recent-historic lows in 2008 in the key swing states (Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado) and nationally, because the post-2008 elections, the party registration data, the early-voting and absentee-ballot numbers, and the Rasmussen and Gallup national party-ID surveys (both of which have solid track records) all point to this conclusion. I stand by my view that no countervailing evidence outside of poll samples shows a similar surge above 2008 levels in Democratic voter turnout, as would be needed to offset Romney’s advantage with independents and increased GOP voter turnout. And I stand by the view that a mechanical reading of polling averages is an inadequate basis to project an event unprecedented in American history: the re-election of a sitting president without a clear-cut victory in the national popular vote.

Perhaps, despite the paucity of evidence to the contrary, these assumptions are wrong. But if they are correct, no mathematical model can provide a convincing explanation of how Obama is going to win re-election. He remains toast.
More...

hey bagdad bob. if nate were out there all by himself you might have a point. he is not. the majority of the state polls have obama winning the electoral college:
intrade:
Barack Obama

67.6%

Mitt Romney

33.1%
 
hey che ... did you even get the point of article.

If you unskew the polls Romney most likely wins..

so if you think we have a more dem turnout then 2008 as nate and your lefty pollsters say we will truly have a new obama-nation.





Quote from Free Thinker:

hey bagdad bob. if nate were out there all by himself you might have a point. he is not. the majority of the state polls have obama winning the electoral college:
intrade:
Barack Obama

67.6%

Mitt Romney

33.1%
More...
 
Quote from jem:

hey che ... did you even get the point of article.

If you unskew the polls Romney most likely wins..

so if you think we have a more dem turnout then 2008 as nate and your lefty pollsters say we will truly have a new obama-nation.
More...

do you ever think critically about anything? why would people who make their living selling polling data risk their credibility to make obama look better?
 
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