Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

Quote from jem:

I warned you crooked slanted polls adjust their samples to more Rs as they get closer to elections and then they pretend there was as late momentum shift...

nevertheless, could you point out which polls are now oversampling Rs... I have not seen one.

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In the past polls have not switched to adding more R's to the polls the month before the election after consistently having more D's.



I'm not looking the polls up but pspr and Epic were discussing it here

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=248013&perpage=6&highlight=poll&pagenumber=7


Quote from Epic:

Look at the recent post-debate polls in OH, VA, etc. they have Romney tied and many of them did not over sample dems.
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Quote from Epic:

Look at the "we ask America" polls that show Romney with a slight lead since debate. They are baking in MORE GOP voters than dems, especially in FL. I would argue that is actually over-sampling republicans slightly. The PPP poll in WI has Obama +2 with an equal sampling of GOP, dem, and indie. That is the case with most recent polls. They were heavily over sampling dems until a couple weeks ago. Not so this past several days. This is likely to be so close that I wouldn't surprised if it comes down to recounts in FL, VA, and OH
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if you follow it to the end... you will see where I chimed in .

the takeaway from that thread...

1. the swing state polls should be balanced that is why they are swing states.
the electorate is balanced.

2. but here we were talking about the national polls.

nothing produced showed any change in the starting samples of these national polls. what changed is that Romney now has big leads with Independents and has closed the gender gap.
...
note... It looks like Pew hides the recipe because they give you the unweighted numbers but they don't say how they apply their weightings.



Quote from AK Forty Seven:

In the past polls have not switched to adding more R's to the polls the month before the election after consistently having more D's.



I'm not looking the polls up but pspr and Epic were discussing it here

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=248013&perpage=6&highlight=poll&pagenumber=7
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Latest electoral maps.Many show the race tightening but Romneys bump isnt real gains .Many of the swing state polls are having more R's then D's in their polls but the state has more registered D's then R's





Karl Rove


Obama 275

Mitt 191






Rasmussen

Obama 237

Mitt 181



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http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/...ad-electoral-math-still-favors-182101267.html


Romney chips away at Obama’s lead, but electoral math still favors president


Last week's debate between President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney has inflicted severe turmoil on Obama's standing in the polls, breathing new life and energy into Romney's bid. If the United States elected its presidents by popular vote, the way sane electoral systems operate, Obama's odds of re-election would have plummeted in tandem. Unfortunately for the Romney campaign, it will take more than one good night to overcome the steep uphill climb it faces in the Electoral College this year. The first debate between Obama and Romney radically altered the dynamic of the 2012 election, but it did not change the math.

It has been clear at least since February that Romney has to win Florida, Ohio and Virginia to have a viable shot at victory. This troika, along with the states safely in the Republican column, would bring Romney to 266 electoral votes. From there, he would need just one more state—say, New Hampshire—to push him over the 270 mark. All three states have moved in his favor over the past two weeks.



The overall odds for Obama remain well above 60 percent for one simple reason: Romney needs all three swing states to win, while Obama needs only to deny him one of them. Right now, that rearguard action is occurring in Ohio, where Obama is maintaining his lead in the aftermath of the debate.

As the graph clearly shows, right now the states are correlated: They all move up or down in basic tandem in response to national events. By Election Day, after all the speeches have been given, all the debates played out and all the commercials aired, this will no longer be the case. The states will become individual coin tosses. If they are still in toss-up territory, it will mean Romney will need to flip heads three times in a row, while Obama will need to flip tails only once.
 
Quote from AK Forty Seven:





The overall odds for Obama remain well above 60 percent for one simple reason: Romney needs all three swing states to win, while Obama needs only to deny him one of them. Right now, that rearguard action is occurring in Ohio, where Obama is maintaining his lead in the aftermath of the debate.

As the graph clearly shows, right now the states are correlated: They all move up or down in basic tandem in response to national events. By Election Day, after all the speeches have been given, all the debates played out and all the commercials aired, this will no longer be the case. The states will become individual coin tosses. If they are still in toss-up territory, it will mean Romney will need to flip heads three times in a row, while Obama will need to flip tails only once.
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Jem,this is where Obamas massive Sept 181 million dollar fundraising + whats he's raising in Oct will come into play,not just ads but a massive ground game in swing states making sure Dems get their asses out and vote


Obama had the best ground game ever in 2008,it will be even bigger in 2012
 
Quote from AK Forty Seven:



As the graph clearly shows, right now the states are correlated: They all move up or down in basic tandem in response to national events. By Election Day, after all the speeches have been given, all the debates played out and all the commercials aired, this will no longer be the case. The states will become individual coin tosses. If they are still in toss-up territory, it will mean Romney will need to flip heads three times in a row, while Obama will need to flip tails only once.
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Ah, if only it were as easy as flipping a coin.
 
AK those articles are talking garbage. 538 is the new york times.

Romney now has a 5 to 18 point lead with Independents.
Even if you use the 2008 turnout (which is far too generous to Obama in my opinion) as the swing states as the template...

Romney takes them all.

Do the math in just about every state if Romney has that sort of lead with Independents the only states Obama carries are the ones with really larger urban centers of dependents...

It becomes and absolute run of the table for Romney if this lead with Independents stays.




Quote from Tsing Tao:

Ah, if only it were as easy as flipping a coin.
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Hey did you see the new electoral map at RCP...

Its now 217 to 181... the took over 50 electoral points down from Obama's side.

And that is with county all sorts of pre debate slanted polls for Obama.

Penn, NH and Wis are now toss up with Romney up 1 pt...
 
Quote from jem:

AK those articles are talking garbage. 538 is the new york times.

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The article I posted wasn't from 538

A EC map was from 538,but I also included maps from Rasmussen and Karl Rove
 
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