Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

AK Forty Seven · Oct 10, 2012

Quote from tradingjournals:

Another question: How many dozen names does the poster have?

Righties are constantly accusing democratic and centrists posters of having multiple screens names,they are a delusional bunch

Ricter · Oct 10, 2012

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Jem is the one who will be paying.Nothing has changed except pollters are dramatically altering their poll sample sizes to include more republicans despite the fact that dems has more registered voters.I've read many theories as to why they are doing this but its good for Obama for his supporters to think the race is close so that they will get out and vote

"The Pew poll's sample of likely voters included 36% who identified themselves as Republicans, 31% as Democrats and 30% as independents. Its September survey included 29% who said they lean more toward the Republican party, 39% Democratic and 30% who said they were independents. "

Nevertheless the stock market is currently pricing in the now higher odds of a Romney win.

jem · Oct 10, 2012

ahem... I thought you told me we don't care about how the samples were made just whether a pollster was correct in the past.

now do you understand why sample makeup is so vital.

but,nevertheless it was the independents who swung so dramatically in those polls. and secondly... registered voters does not matter... what matters is current voter ID.

Finally, if pew did not weight the poll towards the republicans but it was a truly random sample that came out that way..

you told me that was the correct way to poll.

was it wrong then or wrong now.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Jem is the one who will be paying.Nothing has changed except pollters are dramatically altering their poll sample sizes to include more republicans despite the fact that dems has more registered voters.I've read many theories as to why they are doing this but its good for Obama for his supporters to think the race is close so that they will get out and vote

"The Pew poll's sample of likely voters included 36% who identified themselves as Republicans, 31% as Democrats and 30% as independents. Its September survey included 29% who said they lean more toward the Republican party, 39% Democratic and 30% who said they were independents. "

tradingjournals · Oct 10, 2012

Is it only in America that a man who tells the truth except when he moves his lips could win a debate?

jem · Oct 10, 2012

IBD still with very slanted poll...
Romney plus 5.

( unskewed its Romney plus 13... plus 15 if likely voters.)

Polling period: 10/4 - 10/9
Margin of Error: +/- 3.5%
Sample Size: 757 likely voters (identified from 873 registered voters with party affiliation of 39% Dem, 31% GOP, 30% Ind.)

Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx#ixzz28vStOovJ

Tsing Tao · Oct 10, 2012

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Jem is the one who will be paying.Nothing has changed except pollters are dramatically altering their poll sample sizes to include more republicans despite the fact that dems has more registered voters.I've read many theories as to why they are doing this but its good for Obama for his supporters to think the race is close so that they will get out and vote.

"The Pew poll's sample of likely voters included 36% who identified themselves as Republicans, 31% as Democrats and 30% as independents. Its September survey included 29% who said they lean more toward the Republican party, 39% Democratic and 30% who said they were independents. "

This is an adjustment of the voters themselves becoming "likely voters", as the "registered voters" in the survey declined accordingly, however - still favoring democrats. Additionally, if you look at the data in the registered voters, it clearly favors voters who voted Obama the last time around, regardless of affiliation.

jem · Oct 10, 2012

Quote from Tsing Tao:

This is an adjustment of the voters themselves becoming "likely voters", as the "registered voters" in the survey remained similar - still favoring democrats. Additionally, if you look at the data in the registered voters, it clearly favors voters who voted Obama the last time around, regardless of affiliation.

great point... I was going to open that poll up.. when I saw the new IBD numbers.

Tsing Tao · Oct 10, 2012

Quote from jem:

great point... I was going to open that poll up.. when I saw the new IBD numbers.

Here is the poll...
http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/10-8-12 Political Release.pdf

AK Forty Seven · Oct 10, 2012

Quote from jem:

ahem... I thought you said your favorite pollsters did not do such things.
you told me we don't care about samples just whether they were correct a month or two months out.

now do you understand why Rasmuessen was the most correct the whole time.

but,nevertheless it was the independents who swung so dramatically in those polls. and secondly... registered voters does not matter... what matters is current voter ID.

Finally, if pew did not weight the poll towards the republicans but it was a truly random sample that came out that way..

you told me that was the correct way to poll.

was it wrong then or wrong now.

It is the wrong way to poll imo, its the opposite of the way they have been polling the last 6 months and 2008.Polls are good or bad because of their methodology,once their methodology changes the poll changes. Other polls are now including more R's then D's .Including more R's then D's in a poll has a history of colossal failure.Read theories as to why the change in their mythology a month before the election but I haven't formed an opinion yet .In my opinion it is better for Obama if his voters think it will be a close race rather then them thinking it is a landslide Obama win .In my opinion Obama wins

Rasmussen is also polling incorrectly imo but it doesn't seem as though they have changed their model.In other news in their latest electoral map Romney has loss EC votes

Rasmussen map last month

Rasmussen current map

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard

jem · Oct 10, 2012

I warned you crooked slanted polls adjust their samples to more Rs as they get closer to elections and then they pretend there was as late momentum shift...

nevertheless, could you point out which polls are now oversampling Rs... I have not seen any... it is either virtually balanced or skewed democrat.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

It is the wrong way to poll imo, its the opposite of the way they have been polling the last 6 months and 2008.Polls are good or bad because of their methodology,once their methodology changes the poll changes. Other polls are now including more R's then D's .Including more R's then D's in a poll has a history of colossal failure.Read theories as to why the change in their mythology a month before the election but I haven't formed an opinion yet .In my opinion it is better for Obama if his voters think it will be a close race rather then them thinking it is a landslide Obama win .In my opinion Obama wins

Rasmussen is also polling incorrectly imo but it doesn't seem as though they have changed their model.In other news in their latest electoral map Romney has loss EC votes

Rasmussen map last month

Rasmussen current map

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard