Robust Econometric Predictive System Projects a Romney Victory

[TGregg]

Quote from pspr:

This is the spread between those two charts.

<img src="http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/blogs/moneybox/2012/09/24/the_obama_death_spread_on_intrade_illustrates_financial_market_inefficiency_/1348515172214.jpg.CROP.rectangle3-large.jpg">

And that looks pretty reasonable. Not ". . . swings about 10 points quite regularly" though.

 

[jem]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Polling has gotten much more accurate,that is why righteis have to use polling from 32 years ago to try to make their point

b.s.

some of your beloved skewed polls had Kerry winning right up to and on election day.
And from what I just read they had 2000 wrong as well.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

b.s.

some of your beloved skewed polls had Kerry winning right up to and on election day.
And from what I just read they had 2000 wrong as well.

RCP's avg had Bush up 1-3 points the last 2 months of the election.Bush won by 2.5 points

 

[jem]

like I said... some of your beloved skewed polls had kerry winning.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

like I said... some of your beloved skewed polls had kerry winning.

Jem,the last 2 months of the election RCPs average never had Kerry ahead and their average had Kerry ahead 1 day the month of august.RCPs average is from multiple polls,That means the majority of polls had Bush winning the last 3 months of the election just like they are now for Obama

 

[Ripley]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Jem,the last 2 months of the election RCPs average never had Kerry ahead and their average had Kerry ahead 1 day the month of august.RCPs average is from multiple polls,That means the majority of polls had Bush winning the last 3 months of the election just like they are now for Obama

No they are not. All the polls are back down to being tied up (or within the margin of error) after the DNC bounce. This is a tight race and, being tied with an incumbent with just over a month or so to go, and the political situation in the Middle East getting tense is not a good place for an incumbent to be at.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Ripley:

No they are not. All the polls are back down to being tied up (or within the margin of safety) after the DNC bounce. This is a tight race and, being tied with an incumbent with just over a month or so to go, and the political situation in the Middle East getting tense is not a good place for an incumbent to be at.

 

[Ripley]

Almost all those toss-up states are within the margin of error. Meaning that's too close to call. What these polls are not taking into account is which of those polled will be excited to actually go and vote. Republican base is much more excited than the democratic base, and you cannot take that into account in a poll.

 

[Spike Trader]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Polling has gotten much more accurate,that is why righteis have to use polling from 32 years ago to try to make their point

Aside from polling , the voting electorate is much more politically aware today. That can be clearly seen by the absence and sulking of our senior republican correspondents..

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Ripley:

Almost all those toss-up states are within the margin of error. Meaning that's too close to call.