Robust Econometric Predictive System Projects a Romney Victory

Ripley · Sep 25, 2012

OH and FL are still in play. As long as those two states are in play, the race is wide open with 40 or so days to go.

AK Forty Seven · Sep 25, 2012

Quote from Ripley:

What these polls are not taking into account is which of those polled will be excited to actually go and vote. Republican base is much more excited than the democratic base, and you cannot take that into account in a poll.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157547/democratic-enthusiasm-swells-swing-states-nationally.aspx

September 20, 2012

Democratic Enthusiasm Swells in the Swing States, Nationally

Voter enthusiasm in these states has grown among members of both political parties; however, Democrats' level has increased more. Thus, whereas equal percentages of Democrats and Republicans were enthusiastic in June, Democrats are now significantly more enthusiastic than Republicans, 73% vs. 64%.

Gallup finds a similar pattern among voters nationwide. Overall, 55% of U.S. registered voters in the latest poll are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in this fall's election, up from 43% in June. This includes a 19-percentage-point increase among Democrats and roughly 10-point increases among independents and Republicans.

AK Forty Seven · Sep 25, 2012

Quote from Ripley:

OH and FL are still in play. As long as those two states are in play, the race is wide open with 40 or so days to go.

That used to be the case when VA and NC were reliably red states and Pennsylvania was in play

I dont even think Ohio is in play

Ripley · Sep 25, 2012

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

I dont even think Ohio is in play

I like Romney's chances with the debates to go. He is this close with 40 or so days left and debates yet to come and where the economy is where its at, is a good place to be.

RCG Trader · Sep 25, 2012

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157547/democratic-enthusiasm-swells-swing-states-nationally.aspx

September 20, 2012

Democratic Enthusiasm Swells in the Swing States, Nationally

Voter enthusiasm in these states has grown among members of both political parties; however, Democrats' level has increased more. Thus, whereas equal percentages of Democrats and Republicans were enthusiastic in June, Democrats are now significantly more enthusiastic than Republicans, 73% vs. 64%.

Gallup finds a similar pattern among voters nationwide. Overall, 55% of U.S. registered voters in the latest poll are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in this fall's election, up from 43% in June. This includes a 19-percentage-point increase among Democrats and roughly 10-point increases among independents and Republicans.

Well, since you were the only one of us who got the ACA ruling right, this is good news AK. You are officially the statistician for the Progressives here at ET

Lucrum · Sep 25, 2012

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Polling has gotten much more accurate...

Not here in ATL they haven't as demonstrated by a recent 3 - 1 vote that the polls indicated was going to be close.

AK Forty Seven · Sep 25, 2012

Quote from RCG Trader:

Well, since you were the only one of us who got the ACA ruling right, this is good news AK. You are officially the statistician for the Progressives here at ET

AK Forty Seven · Sep 25, 2012

Quote from Lucrum:

Not here in ATL they haven't as demonstrated by a recent 3 - 1 vote that the polls indicated was going to be close.

3-1 vote about what ?

Lucrum · Sep 25, 2012

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

3-1 vote about what ?

My mistake it was only 2 - 1.

http://tsplost.wordpress.com/

AK Forty Seven · Sep 25, 2012

Quote from Lucrum:

Not here in ATL they haven't as demonstrated by a recent 3 - 1 vote that the polls indicated was going to be close.

Not the same as a political election or presidential election polling imo but AJC said polls predicted it would fail

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/voters-reject-transportation-tax/nQXfq/

Voter revolt

The metro Atlanta result was no surprise to independent pollsters who in recent weeks predicted an overwhelming loss, fueled by citizens' distrust of government and the metro area's splintered transportation desires.