ahhhh...the ET of old....I luv it
RM's occasional market calls...
- Thread starter Rearden Metal
- Start date
ahhhh...the ET of old....I luv it
Quote from HurricaneUS:
ahhhh...the ET of old....I luv it
Ain't that the truth.
This board has been dead for years thanks to HFT wiping out so many market participants.
RM's restarted journal has been a breath of fresh air among the other daily disastrous journals and top calling threads.
Hopefully he has helped some newbie or struggling traders make a little $ on the side too.
Leave the guy alone already. Focus on the blatant frauds and closet snake oil salesman (which is what I do!)
Opportunity for personal growth here, for all involved. First, I don't get the Livermore references. Interesting life for sure, but a cautionary tale rather than a model to emulate for speculators...
I can relate to where you're coming from as the ET member "NoDoji" brought out the absolute worst in me - the guru persona when it was clear what she didn't know about markets. So you're popping up to give the other side of the story when you perceive someone is either boasting or is presenting an image which isn't 100% accurate and will be used to sucker in newbies, or worse, investors.
However, is this really an accurate view where RM is concerned? First, the allegation about looking for a backer; investors must do their own due diligence. People can buy and sell what they please, a little self responsibility is a good thing. The universal truth about people who are "duped" by bad investments is that they fool themselves. Greed and sloth. So why not rely on actual and potential investors to sniff out any problems if RM is really looking for backers? I'd suggest you don't have any direct knowledge of his P&L, or whether he is actively attempting to raise capital. RM's mentioned Last Atlantis to me, I don't think its any secret or something a diligent potential investor would miss.
RM has been very frank about some of his personal issues and shortcomings, including some past blowups, and issues with overtrading. Further, his calls here and how he describes the market give all the information we need to work out how good a trader he is (and where his weaknesses are). Sure, I thought the long ES calls position was a shocker (based on how I understand this phase of the market) and told him so, but he explained his reasoning so why continue to bring it up? People can judge for themselves whether it was a wise decision or not, but the call was still profitable overall as well as many others which have been posted here.
In fact, I only mentioned it as I was interested in how people viewed this part of the market cycle, and how likely it was that the market could have gone all the way back up the following day. RM gave his view that it could do either/or, hence the insurance. That isn't something I happen to agree with, but horses for courses. I didn't bring it up to take the piss out of someone for having a losing leg of a trade. I suspect that is how you have come across.
I don't think either of us should appoint ourselves arbiter of the "correct" motives for posting calls, and the value readers may obtain from this thread is not altered whether the motivation is pure altruism or blatant boasting. I don't need people to give me market calls, but RMs contributions here have provided me immense value in terms of insight into psychology and human behaviour - both through RMs contributions and the way others react to him.
I agree with you that some of the people who posted don't know RM beyond a nickname on an online forum, and also may not know sufficient about trading that you or I would value their opinion. However, their motivations appear honourable in defending someone they perceive as honest, successful, and generous against what they perceive is an ungentlemanly personal attack motivated by sour grapes.
So in summary, I don't think there is any evidence RM has done anything dishonest, potential investors need to have the savvy to look out for themselves, and ET readers should find their own voice instead of wanting to listen to gurus - but can still give kudos for a rare public demonstration of trading skill, and perhaps learn something from the experience overall.
I don't think any of us has all the facts (save for RM and perhaps MattSF) but it is nevertheless an interesting exercise to observe how people interact and their varied motives. Plenty of lessons here. And in my limited experience of talking with RM occasionally over the last few years I've never uncovered any hints of dishonesty - in fact nothing but polite, thoughtful, intelligent discourse. But I'm not looking for a guru to follow or someone to trade my capital - so it is entirely possible my perception of RM is different to others.
Also, RM provides a great (and rare) service to newbies who are suffering from "four minute mile" syndrome and need some proof that it is possible for an independent trader to take millions out of the market. Regardless of how his story ends or what personal problems he may struggle with in his trading and personal life, for a time he was doing exactly that. Perhaps a little compassion would be helpful here?
Interesting post, Blotto. I concur but don't believe compassion is needed in this case. Rearden is a real trader/ speculator-----real trading, speculating requires risk taking and sometimes risk taking means losses and big ones. Otherwise, your life will be spent churning and making everyone else ( in your order chain)wealthy but yourself. It also requires an edge--in RM case the edge was taught by the worlds number one day trader--- edges morph and change constantly--- it's great to see reality on this board.
Do not let trolls damage a good thing, ignoring works great.
I considered and rejected that particular approach (which is valid regardless), because making an example of them seems to discourage their peers from trying anything like that going forward.
When I say I'm currently coming off "five years of drought", I expect to be believed, and not have that number senselessly inflated by dubious characters. Five years means exactly what I say it does. Schonfeld Chicago shut down in 2003, but up until August 2008 (when my life was ruined for the second time by medical/legal problems) I was still riding VERY high, with my net worth at peak levels at that point.
Figuring out who can be trusted and who can't should come naturally to anyone with sufficient pattern recognition skills to call themselves a 'professional trader'. Anyone who can look at all the times I've openly admitted my many flaws and <b>still</b> think what he sees is some kind of phoney... There's something seriously wrong with that person. This concept actually came up in a different thread just a few weeks ago:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3787750&highlight=truth#post3787750
Dead right, and kudos for nailing it!
Just to clarify what just happened here, I can say without any doubt that I recognize this particular troll's type: He is yet another miserably failed trader who goes around misrepresenting himself as something heâs not (=successful). So when he encounters someone like me who also represents himself as having a history of more success than the average dude, he automatically assumes that Iâm a fraud too- just like he is. He genuinely believes this btw, and thereâs a life lesson to be learned here: Whenever youâre telling nothing but the truth to someone, yet that person accuses you of dishonesty regardless- Beware, because you have yourself a bullshitter!
Clearly this is a needed service, and a potentially profitable niche for someone to step in and fill. Does anyone have the desire to grab this ball and run with it?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=269602
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=269602
I agree, his motivation is suspect. That's right on in how he reacted to your straightforward honesty by accusing you of being a fraud. These kinds of crazy insights are obviously rare -- rare enough that people like me would blindly follow them, and I blindly follow no one (although I don't take all of your calls, only those that seem to fit the instrument/style I understand). Maverick74 would be the only other guy I'd actually throw my money behind on a call. Anyone who looks objectively at what you've done here would recognize you're not faking this shit.
I'm rarely concerned with whether someone is successful or not, unless they're posturing about trading skills and techniques -- then I'm quite skeptical. When it comes to ET, I'm more interested in just understanding why people choose to engage in the way that they do. Particularly the gamblers and mentally unstable are intriguing/useful to me. The quiet pros are interesting and self-evident.
As someone who recognizes your skill without envy, it makes the most sense to me to simply appreciate and admire (and, the side benefit is to directly profit). So it surprises me that anyone would actually get up in your grill about engaging in this strange art that it takes to be a trader.
I remember back in the day you used to spar with that inveterate troll ZZZzzz or whatever (I had one prior alias that went back to 2003-2006, although I never bothered posting in the ET basement). Sometimes it's entertaining to just lure the broken and/or crazy to operate, in counterpoint, on their mistakes, as a means to hone one's own insights. Sometimes it's better just to ignore them.