Short Gold: Spot= $1587.20
Short Silver: Spot= $28.00
Short Silver: Spot= $28.00
RM's occasional market calls...
- Thread starter Rearden Metal
- Start date
"Mr. Metal, how low do you think silver will go?"
----->Low 20's (at least) by the end of the year.
"Why?"
---->Trend following hedge funds loaded up long metals during the lengthy bull market. Gold especially is very vulnerable right now. Also, I believe bond yields can't possibly stay at such ridiculously low levels for much longer. Higher bond yields will make various debt instruments relatively more attractive next to bullion. Add in the fact that to the masses, equities now look like a 'good place to invest' due to recent stock price gains, and a shift out of metals this year seems more likely than not.
I should add that these metals short positions are more of a long-term call than a short-term trade. Today I bought illiquid December '13 gold futures puts, slippage and all (putting in bids at mid-point or a little higher, not blindly taking out offers) - so I'm basically committed to holding on for a while.
----->Low 20's (at least) by the end of the year.
"Why?"
---->Trend following hedge funds loaded up long metals during the lengthy bull market. Gold especially is very vulnerable right now. Also, I believe bond yields can't possibly stay at such ridiculously low levels for much longer. Higher bond yields will make various debt instruments relatively more attractive next to bullion. Add in the fact that to the masses, equities now look like a 'good place to invest' due to recent stock price gains, and a shift out of metals this year seems more likely than not.
I should add that these metals short positions are more of a long-term call than a short-term trade. Today I bought illiquid December '13 gold futures puts, slippage and all (putting in bids at mid-point or a little higher, not blindly taking out offers) - so I'm basically committed to holding on for a while.
Are you using any hard or mental stops? If so, how far away are they?
"Are you using any hard or mental stops? If so, how far away are they?"
---->I never use hard stops for any reason, ever. If the position starts to feel wrong I get out, and putting a specific number on 'feels wrong' isn't easy to do. Since I'm long illiquid far-month puts, you can bet that I <b>won't</b> be quick to run for the exit door if it starts going the wrong way.
"As far as entry, kinda close to the war-drums backdrop or immaterial?"
----->The entry was mostly technical, while the reason I was looking to enter in the first place was mostly fundamental. This point on the chart just seems to feel right.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3777046>
---->I never use hard stops for any reason, ever. If the position starts to feel wrong I get out, and putting a specific number on 'feels wrong' isn't easy to do. Since I'm long illiquid far-month puts, you can bet that I <b>won't</b> be quick to run for the exit door if it starts going the wrong way.
"As far as entry, kinda close to the war-drums backdrop or immaterial?"
----->The entry was mostly technical, while the reason I was looking to enter in the first place was mostly fundamental. This point on the chart just seems to feel right.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3777046>
Magna
Administrator
Hey RM, came across this in an interview with Jim Sinclair today (4/9/13). As you know he's the ultimate gold bug and has been trading the yellow metal for over 50 yrs. While he's always touting gold as insurance against inflation and currency collapse he doesn't promote it as an investment in the normal sense. In any case, over the years he rarely calls market bottoms which is why this stood out to me. Take it with a grain of salt, but it's another piece of information to consider...
"The action of the gold market is absolute confirmation that we have seen the lows of this reaction. From this reaction gold is going forward to new highs. Sure it will occur in the normal soap opera way that gold trades, but the low is in and a higher high is coming."
"The action of the gold market is absolute confirmation that we have seen the lows of this reaction. From this reaction gold is going forward to new highs. Sure it will occur in the normal soap opera way that gold trades, but the low is in and a higher high is coming."
Thanks Magna... there's always more relevant info to gather, and I hadn't seen that. Maybe I should point out my risk/reward ratio here as well: I'm now long December '13 gold futures puts of the following strikes: 1400,1350,1300,1250, and 1200. So if I'm right about this and I don't prematurely ejaculate, I stand to make ridiculous gains in percentage terms.
Gold spot= $1569.00
Silver spot= $27.58
One couldn't be blamed for wanting to take something off the table here. I've just cashed in some smaller, shorter term gold short positions that I don't get credit for, because I didn't previously mention them here.
Edit: By the time I hit enter, gold spot was $1.70 higher. So I guess it would be more accurate to say gold spot= $1570.70.
Those December gold put positions have not been touched, as they are designed to be held long-term.
Silver spot= $27.58
One couldn't be blamed for wanting to take something off the table here. I've just cashed in some smaller, shorter term gold short positions that I don't get credit for, because I didn't previously mention them here.
Edit: By the time I hit enter, gold spot was $1.70 higher. So I guess it would be more accurate to say gold spot= $1570.70.
Those December gold put positions have not been touched, as they are designed to be held long-term.