RM's occasional market calls...

OK, now I have another one:

$VIX Call debit spread.
Expires: May 21, 2013.
Long 12-strike calls, short 17-strike calls. I was just filled at debit: $1.90.

Edit: I'm just taking a small 'introductory' position in this today, with the intention of adding a lot more at some future date to be determined.
 
Here's another similar one I just put on, already filled:

Jun '13 $VIX debit call spread:

Long 12 calls
Short 18 calls
Debit: $2.51

Edit: Again, this is a small 'probe trade', and I'm probably a few weeks too early here. Just setting the table for a much bigger position to be put on at some future date.
 
Good articles, thanks. I had read about Goldman's downgrade, but I hadn't seen the NY Times or Fox pieces.

Note that I expect a more drastic decline than Goldman ("$1,390 within a year, and $1,300 by the end of 2014") or SocGen ("$1,375 by the end of the year"). <b>I'm actually looking for gold to drop below $1,300 by the end of this year.</b> I have seen traders make their careers by anticipating major moves like the one I'm expecting in gold. I know someone who went from low 7-figures rich, up to low 8-figures wealthy, just by loading up long oil futures 6 or 7 years ago and holding patiently. Even if you nail just one out of three of these types of predictions, a trader can potentially graduate to the next level.
 
Gold sentiment at the present time is overwhelmingly bearish. Short Positions reportedly at all-time highs. The Cyprus gold sale was a planted rumor, apparently. I'm neutral. If this trade works, you'll come out looking like a genius.
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:

I have seen traders make their careers by anticipating major moves like the one I'm expecting in gold. I know someone who went from low 7-figures rich, up to low 8-figures wealthy, just by loading up long oil futures 6 or 7 years ago and holding patiently. Even if you nail just one out of three of these types of predictions, a trader can potentially graduate to the next level.
More...

Good point. Long move in usdjpy comes to mind which happened this year. Many guys would have made a huge amount of money on that move.
 
RM - Excuse the obvious post. :-)

As soon as the day comes that the FED gives any hint of easing up on the infinite QE gas pedal, fed bubble, wouldn't that be perhaps a big day for this sector. Public rushes in. [Too bad we won't accidentally be emailed the fed's intentions as the 100 or so congressional staffer darlings were on Tuesday...errr 'mistakenly' a day early.]

attachment.php
 

Attachments

Satchel, I look at it differently.
IMO, when the fed starts slowing down the printing presses, that will mean we are just one step away from rate hikes (=more attractive bond yields), instead of two.

Another thing is that I'm focused exclusively on bullion prices, not the stock price of bullion producers as displayed in your chart. The patterns are similar but different.

Quote from budcampbell:

If this trade works, you'll come out looking like a genius.
More...

Will I finally get noticed by the right people (high level, Chicago area, cool office environment), and get the invitation I've been waiting for ever since Schonfeld Chicago shut down ten years ago? :p
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:

...Will I finally get noticed by the right people (high level, Chicago area, cool office environment), and get the invitation I've been waiting for ever since Schonfeld Chicago shut down ten years ago? :p
More...
GL, and I mean that.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top