Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

Monday March 6, 2:06 pm ET


The long-standing process for Allergan Inc. as it has tried to buy out Inamed Corp. appears to be near an end.
Allergan said in a statement that it expects to receive the results of the Federal Trade Commission's review of the transaction this week.

The deal, under which Allergan will exchange for each Inamed share (NASDAQ: IMDC - News) either $84 in cash or 0.8498 share of a share of Allergan common stock (NYSE: AGN - News), at the election of the holder, has now been extended to expire March 10 at 6:00 p.m. Eastern.

As of Friday, March 3, approximately 17,779,617 shares, representing approximately 48 percent of Inamed's outstanding common stock had been tendered. The total value of the buyout bid is about $3.2 billion.

Once again, the extension was given due to antitrust regulations. Inamed must complete its divestiture of its Reloxin license, as Irvine's Allergan and Santa Barbara's Inamed make anti-wrinkle products. The Reloxin is a botulism-based product, much like Allergan's signature product, Botox.

Published March 6, 2006 by Los Angeles Business from bizjournals
 
Quote from riskarb:

The synth reflects $86 based upon AGN share risk to the IMDC buyer. The IMDC shareholder's can take $84 in cash or .8498 AGN shares. There doesn't seem to be any risk to the reversal as it's currently priced.
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Gotcha. Thanks
 
Quote from riskarb:

Short-term bullish on GOOG here at $338-$339. Shorting the $350 straddle into the weekend with size.
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Riskarb,

I see the OI on the calls starts up around 350 and the puts around 340. From what I remember the support on the CFO news day was around 325ish. just a guess. I assume the premiums are good -- although I haven't checked. And finally, people are selling -- so far -- on a strong up day. So that's what I observe. What is driving your thinking here if you don't mind my asking?

Thanks,

Sam
 
OI is meaningless, worse, using it in your analysis is detrimental. I sold the 350 at $46.20 at 50% vols. ATM vols > 50% aren't likely sustainable in this stock, but who knows. I am long deltas by selling the 350 straddle. There is a poor correlation between GOOG and the major index.

Currently long 55d per contract on GOOG.
 
Quote from riskarb:

OI is meaningless, worse, using it in your analysis is detrimental. I sold the 350 at $46.20 at 50% vols. ATM vols > 50% aren't likely sustainable in this stock, but who knows. I am long deltas by selling the 350 straddle with the price around 334.
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Ah...

I was looking at the March series. Back to some basic questions if you've got the time and inclination. I just modelled this position as a 1:1 straddle on the Hoadley spreadsheet. I see the vols but I don't quite see the delta. I show something like 13d for the straddle. What am I missing?
 
So you are the one who took the other side of my trade!

How you liking that SPX short straddle... I was gonna get out but I see us heading lower Mon or Tues back to 1275...

:D



Quote from riskarb:

A bit OT for this journal, but I bought 5000 AAPL at $63.34 avg.
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Quote from ssternlight:

Ah...

I was looking at the March series. Back to some basic questions if you've got the time and inclination. I just modelled this position as a 1:1 straddle on the Hoadley spreadsheet. I see the vols but I don't quite see the delta. I show something like 13d for the straddle. What am I missing?
More...

I glanced at my IB model when typing my response. I wa using the 360 strike as I had an existing position, but IB is wrong on deltas. The 350p is nowhere near 75d.

The position delta is more like 30.
 
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