Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

[riskarb]

Quote from optioncoach:

So you are the one who took the other side of my trade!

How you liking that SPX short straddle... I was gonna get out but I see us heading lower Mon or Tues back to 1275...

I like it a lot better now that I am long AAPL deltas, which seems due for a bounce -- my lame-ass TA indicators are showing +divergence so it's probably a great fade.

 

[cnms2]

I may be wrong, but it looks like AAPL broke support. It's difficult to catch turns, I try not to atempt it. Good luck!

Quote from riskarb:

I like it a lot better now that I am long AAPL deltas, which seems due for a bounce -- my lame-ass TA indicators are showing +divergence so it's probably a great fade.

 

[riskarb]

Quote from IV_Trader:

be careful here , B. I saw many new comers hitting vols way above 100 before first report. Briefing just posted NYX ( but still unconfirmed) for 4/19

NYX vols dropped 1200bp in today's session resulting in the straddle coming-in by $2.50. I should have a credit on the 10-wide fly by Monday's close.

 

[IV_Trader]

Quote from riskarb:

NYX vols dropped 1200bp in today's session resulting in the straddle coming-in by $2.50. I should have a credit on the 10-wide fly by Monday's close.

saw it . Super prediction on vols action , right on the money , riskarb .
Today's price action will bring 3 days HV to around 60 , so 55 IV make sense.

 

[vanv0029]

I have been using the idea of selling ATM
straddles as a way to add to stock positions
at a good price (the bottom of the current
trading range. Idea is to sell the near month
ATM straddle just after the previous month's
expiration with the hope that the price will
fall and the shares will be put to me.
The approach does not need falling IV
but relies on theta decay. After a few weeks,
the straddle price hopefully falls from theta
decay and possibility also from falling IV.
Then, the high side calls of the iron butterfly
can be purchased if the stock has not fallen
too much. Best result is if the stock falls
below the botton break even point so the
short puts will be exercised. If near expiration
and the price is above the straddle low break
even point, then the position is closed for a
profit.

For example, I wanted to add more oil and
gas drillers in late February. On Feb. 22,
sold the OIH 140 straddle for +10.02. It
could now be bought back for -6.60 with
a good profit, but I hope OIH will fall to
130 so I am waiting. With only one week to
expiration, the 145 protective calls are only
bought if there is a very rapid rise.

IV was around 38% on Feb. 22 and is now
around 32%. Trade should not be made
if IV is historically low.

The main risk is immediate rapid price
rise before enough theta decay has occurred
for a guaranteed profitable trade. Therefore
idea works best for ETFs because of the
risk of takeovers.

I am looking at entering the same trade
using XAU probably April 127.50 straddle
around March 21 assuming IV stays around
it historical 37%. If XAU price falls as I hope,
I will buy the same dollar amount of metal
stocks since the XAU component stocks
mostly have hedged too much of their
production.

In the past, I have sold puts as a way to
enter positions, but I think selling gamma
is a much better idea.

Is there something seriously wrong with
this idea?

 

[riskarb]

You're selling gamma in either case, but what will you do when a stock reverts and trades much higher? If you're bullish I would suggest selling bull deltas strikes in lieu of the atm.

 

[riskarb]

Quote from riskarb:

If you're bullish I would suggest selling bull deltas strikes in lieu of the atm.

Rephrase: To secure the probability of getting assigned -- sell bull-delta straddles -- strikes > current stock price.

Also, once assigned you can retain the straddle through a synthetic structure by selling 2 calls. Long stock + short two calls = short straddle.

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from vanv0029:

I have been using the idea of selling ATM
straddles as a way to add to stock positions
at a good price (the bottom of the current
trading range. Idea is to sell the near month
ATM straddle just after the previous month's
expiration with the hope that the price will
fall and the shares will be put to me.
The approach does not need falling IV
but relies on theta decay. After a few weeks,
the straddle price hopefully falls from theta
decay and possibility also from falling IV.
Then, the high side calls of the iron butterfly
can be purchased if the stock has not fallen
too much. Best result is if the stock falls
below the botton break even point so the
short puts will be exercised. If near expiration
and the price is above the straddle low break
even point, then the position is closed for a
profit.

For example, I wanted to add more oil and
gas drillers in late February. On Feb. 22,
sold the OIH 140 straddle for +10.02. It
could now be bought back for -6.60 with
a good profit, but I hope OIH will fall to
130 so I am waiting. With only one week to
expiration, the 145 protective calls are only
bought if there is a very rapid rise.

IV was around 38% on Feb. 22 and is now
around 32%. Trade should not be made
if IV is historically low.

The main risk is immediate rapid price
rise before enough theta decay has occurred
for a guaranteed profitable trade. Therefore
idea works best for ETFs because of the
risk of takeovers.

I am looking at entering the same trade
using XAU probably April 127.50 straddle
around March 21 assuming IV stays around
it historical 37%. If XAU price falls as I hope,
I will buy the same dollar amount of metal
stocks since the XAU component stocks
mostly have hedged too much of their
production.

In the past, I have sold puts as a way to
enter positions, but I think selling gamma
is a much better idea.

Is there something seriously wrong with
this idea?

If you are temporarily bearish on OIH in that you expect 130, then I'd sell the 130 straddle, or, if you simply want to end up with the stock/etf, sell the 130 puts.

If you are bullish on OIH in that you think it will go to 150, then sell the 150 straddle, or just the 150 puts.

Selling straddles is not as easy as it looks. The reason why riskarb makes it look so easy is because has years and years of professional experience.

 

[vanv0029]

Thanks for the replies, but I what I am trying to do is improve entry after doing fundamental research. When I purchase a stock, I am hoping to hold it long enough so the profit (if any) will be long term capital gains. In the past I would just purchase the stock, but especially this year there has been huge volatility in sectors with good fundamentals. I had been selling naked puts. For example, when CHK was at 30, I would sell the 27.50 put to insure a safe enter point and to avoid buying just when a rapid 10-20% correction was about to happen.

Selling at the money straddles is better since the at the money straddle can be sold , but the implied purchase price will be as good as selling the one strike away from the market puts.

This approach is aimed at improving my entry points since I have a tendency to enter when fundamentals have just improved , but the market usually takes time to react to the change. If the market rises rapidly, I just wait and try later for a entry that will not be just before a quick fall. The approach has been working lately because I think the market is becoming range bound.

If the stock is put to me early, I re-evaluate whether I want to keep it or not. The exercise implies a good quick profit no matter what. In t he normal case of no early exercise, I wait to have the stock put to me and keep it unless the in the money amount is very small, but in that case I collect almost the entire straddle premium.

This idea does not work for going short because there will probably be no available stock to borrow so I will be forced to immediately buy the stock back.

 

[riskarb]

Sold 25 of the SGXNK April 16000 synthetic straddles at 840[long 25 futs x short 50 calls] at 22% vols. The plan is to convert within one week.