Richard Dennis and Turtles In Chicago Tuesday

[EPrado]

Quote from nokomisjeff:

No matter what you think of Niederhoffer, he's a stand up guy who has balls the size of lampshades. He's also one of the smartest guys on the planet. It's easy for you one lot guys to criticize Vic, but until you've walked a mile in his shoes, it would serve you well to keep your mouth shut. He's forgotten more about the markets than 99.999% of the posters on this board will ever know.

Jeff

Yes......and has blown out twice using a strategy that 1000's of people use. For such a smart guy he sure doesn't think outside the box much. Selling equity index puts....realllllllllllllllllll original.

Wonder if he will comeback and make an attempt of winning the triple crown of blowing out. He has won the first two legs.

 

[Trend Following]

Quote from Daal:

What is Dennis doing these days?

He did not say the other day. It is worth noting that Dennis and V. Niederhoffer both have blown out several times, but both have successful students who have been around a long time doing well for clients.

 

[capitalMan]

Quote from marketsurfer:

roy was listed as the 14th highest earning manager of the year. it's quite impressive that 2 brothers who came from meager means, born without the silver spoon, both created such wealth in the most competitive game on earth.

when's the movie coming out??

regards, surf

I guess you didn't know that Roy 's fund use breakouts and mometum strategies (a more acadamic phase for trend following), so I guess you are saying Roy has NO edge and he and his success is just another example of survivor bias. Talking about survivor bias, in 20 years time, when no one remembers Victor, I guess his blowup will contribute to survivor bias ..

Thanks for reminding us about Victor and how he blew up once in awhile so that we won't fall prey to survivor bias. Is he paying you to reengineer his image?

 

[capitalMan]

Quote from jem:

he quite possibly is a very smart guy.
he also deserves accolades for his squash success.

But as a trader you have two possible conclusions.

He is a really big loser and a dumb trader (in which case I guess he could be a stand up guy with big balls) -

Or, he knew that his trading program is destined to blow up - therefore by embarking on it - he is one of the worlds least moral sobs and perhaps even a fraud.

I see know other possible conclusions. Perhaps you could enlighten me. I could walk ten miles in his shoes and still not see it differently.


Perhaps you could explain how he could have blown up with others money multiple times without being considered a dumb trader? Did he realize he was taking huge, why not? If he knew he was eventual going to blow up, why was he taking in others money?

How many times do you have blow before you acknowledge that sometimes the market moves in one direction more quickly than your large balls can handle.


You really can't have it both ways.

"I am smart and sincere but I lose my clients money? "

Which is it? stupid or fraud?

I really would welcome a third choice. I do not enjoy being a cynic.

may be it takes 30 blewup to make it statiscally significant? I wonder how many times Victor have to blew up b4 MarketSurfer will finally stop to kiss his ass..I bet it will take much more than 30, there seem to be something beyond camradarie and friendship going on here...pretty kinky stuff... Surf, are u ready to come out of the closet?

 

[capitalMan]

Quote from marketsurfer:

there is no edge to trend following which is just another word for buy/sell and hold as proven by the huge drawdowns experienced by the major trend following funds. sure some people make money trend following, just like others make money with almost any method, its called surviorship bias,,,, you never hear from the ones who blow out prior to getting huge.

the public is the ultimate trendfollower, always buying and or selling at the extremes, public is trend following by defaut,


an edge can be quantified, trend following can not, proven by the simple example---- how many moves in one direction will increase the odds that the next move or series of same will be in the same direction? you simply can't do it, and thats the bottom line.

surf

In regards to your "simple" example, it's the magnitude not frequency that matters, dumbass, how many times do we need to bang this into your head...Instead of these simple example, go do a search on mean-variance ratio or hurst exponent...

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from capitalMan:

I guess you didn't know that Roy 's fund use breakouts and mometum strategies (a more acadamic phase for trend following), so I guess you are saying Roy has NO edge and he and his success is just another example of survivor bias. Talking about survivor bias, in 20 years time, when no one remembers Victor, I guess his blowup will contribute to survivor bias ..

Thanks for reminding us about Victor and how he blew up once in awhile so that we won't fall prey to survivor bias. Is he paying you to reengineer his image?

i guess you don't know Roy credits Vic with much of his market knowledge. break out work? oh really.......

by the way, VN has made more over time for his clients than he has lost in both blow outs.....

surf

 

[nokomisjeff]

Jem,

With 5200 posts under your belt, how much time do you devote to trading and what does your P&L look like? Is trading your sole means of support or do you have a primary job at 7/11 and you spend most of your time here criticizing your betters? It's easy to criticize people who have actually done something more than sitting in their mother's basement writing tomes to ET.

Criticizing Vic is easy when you're either no trader, a paper trader or just trade 1 lots. I don't know you, but I do know Victor very well, and he's a better trader than me(and I'm pretty good over 30 years), and I'll lay 7 to 5 that he's a better trader than you. You waste your time making 5000+ posts on ET while Vic is glued to the screen, trading.......you make the call.

Quote from jem:

he quite possibly is a very smart guy.
he also deserves accolades for his squash success.

But as a trader you have two possible conclusions.

He is a really big loser and a dumb trader (in which case I guess he could be a stand up guy with big balls) -

Or, he knew that his trading program is destined to blow up - therefore by embarking on it - he is one of the worlds least moral sobs and perhaps even a fraud.

I see know other possible conclusions. Perhaps you could enlighten me. I could walk ten miles in his shoes and still not see it differently.


Perhaps you could explain how he could have blown up with others money multiple times without being considered a dumb trader? Did he realize he was taking huge, why not? If he knew he was eventual going to blow up, why was he taking in others money?

How many times do you have blow before you acknowledge that sometimes the market moves in one direction more quickly than your large balls can handle.


You really can't have it both ways.

"I am smart and sincere but I lose my clients money? "

Which is it? stupid or fraud?

I really would welcome a third choice. I do not enjoy being a cynic.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from jem:

he quite possibly is a very smart guy.
he also deserves accolades for his squash success.

But as a trader you have two possible conclusions.

He is a really big loser and a dumb trader (in which case I guess he could be a stand up guy with big balls) -

Or, he knew that his trading program is destined to blow up - therefore by embarking on it - he is one of the worlds least moral sobs and perhaps even a fraud.

I see know other possible conclusions. Perhaps you could enlighten me. I could walk ten miles in his shoes and still not see it differently.


Perhaps you could explain how he could have blown up with others money multiple times without being considered a dumb trader? Did he realize he was taking huge, why not? If he knew he was eventual going to blow up, why was he taking in others money?

How many times do you have blow before you acknowledge that sometimes the market moves in one direction more quickly than your large balls can handle.


You really can't have it both ways.

"I am smart and sincere but I lose my clients money? "

Which is it? stupid or fraud?

I really would welcome a third choice. I do not enjoy being a cynic.

this is libelous or simply total ignorance---- posted by an intelligent guy, therefore this statement designed as a question must be assumed its purpose is to disparage and cast dispersions, but that is not the topic here,,,,

your saying that institutions and professional hedge fund investors don't understand risk? seriously, how moronic can one be??

regards, surf

 

[jem]

Quote from nokomisjeff:

Jem,

With 5200 posts under your belt, how much time do you devote to trading and what does your P&L look like? Is trading your sole means of support or do you have a primary job at 7/11 and you spend most of your time here criticizing your betters? It's easy to criticize people who have actually done something more than sitting in their mother's basement writing tomes to ET.

Criticizing Vic is easy when you're either no trader, a paper trader or just trade 1 lots. I don't know you, but I do know Victor very well, and he's a better trader than me(and I'm pretty good over 30 years), and I'll lay 7 to 5 that he's a better trader than you. You waste your time making 5000+ posts on ET while Vic is glued to the screen, trading.......you make the call.

I noticed you did try to give me a third option - you just dodged the question and questioned the trading prowess of the messenger.

Lets just say I traded full time and made a good living for a single guy for 5 or 7 years.

I am still profitable but I do not make a living trading. (and my expenses are a lot higher since I have 3 kids and a wife) (my account also took some large real estate loses. )

I therefore am back working full time and trading part time.


Regarding my trading bona fides. That are those of a profitable daytrader and swing traders who traded a few million shares a month. Nothing mind blowing but legit.

If you know surf you can have him check in with some of his former tradingmarkets author friends.

I traded with 4 of them.

 

[nokomisjeff]

Who, specifically?

Why can't you make a living trading with a wife and 3 kids? I support 13 people with my trading, and it doesn't bother me too much? Perhaps your self doubt is too much, or you lack confidence in your abilities......

Quote from jem:

I noticed you did try to give me a third option - you just dodged the question and questioned the trading prowess of the messenger.

Lets just say I traded full time and made a good living for a single guy for 5 or 7 years.

I am still profitable but I do not make a living trading. (and my expenses are a lot higher since I have 3 kids and a wife) (my account also took some large real estate loses. )

I therefore am back working full time and trading part time.


Regarding my trading bona fides. That are those of a profitable daytrader and swing traders who traded a few million shares a month. Nothing mind blowing but legit.

If you know surf you can have him check in with some of his former tradingmarkets author friends.

I traded with 4 of them.