Richard Dennis and Turtles In Chicago Tuesday

[Trend Following]

Quote from Millionaire:

Marketsurfer spouts this shit because he worships Niederhoffer who doesnt believe in Trend Following.

FYI, last year Niederhoffer's brother Roy made a fortune. Roy Niederhoffer's fund has been around forever, but I can't speak much to the strategy. Shorter term is all I know. That is not a defense of Victor Niederhoffer, just an observation.

 

[Xspurt]

Quote from marketsurfer:

there is no edge to trend following which is just another word for buy/sell and hold as proven by the huge drawdowns experienced by the major trend following funds. sure some people make money trend following, just like others make money with almost any method, its called surviorship bias,,,, you never hear from the ones who blow out prior to getting huge.

the public is the ultimate trendfollower, always buying and or selling at the extremes, public is trend following by defaut,


an edge can be quantified, trend following can not, proven by the simple example---- how many moves in one direction will increase the odds that the next move or series of same will be in the same direction? you simply can't do it, and thats the bottom line.

surf

Buy & Hold is usually associated with Dumb Money. It sounds the same as Trend Following but the difference comes down to the edge i.e. understanding the nature of the market movement and reason for entry/exit as opposed to hoping it will turn out okay in the long run as in Buy & Hope.

Multiple trends are present in every time frame, even below 1 min thru to yearly. However knowing how to recognize and capitalize on any trend is where the edge rests.

The public is the opposite of the trend follower, piling in closest to trend termination and hoping the trend will continue whereas the trend follower may have reversed position.

If the edge cannot be quantified and proven by simple example then entry and exit becomes subjective to the point of uselessness. This applies to any style of trading including trend following.

The key to profits is how soon you begin to follow the trend i.e. recognize entry and potential. Of course you need to be just as quick to recognize when you are wrong and if being wrong constitutes a reversal trade.

Trend Trading is not the only way to trade. But it certainly is a way to trade very successfully in the time frame of your choice.

 

[bighog]

Ahh, yes, the perfect formula to blow out your account. A perfect example of someone that uses "GUESSING" as a plan. (Yes, you are also right we know you as the clown that blows up quite regular. Your following statement explains why.)

Robert Weinstein


Registered: May 2002
Posts: 2653


06-25-09 12:07 AM

Many of you know me as someone who 'fades' a market/trend.

Here is the deal, we are ALL trend followers. Ok, maybe not 'followers' but if not following we surely want to be at the start of a trend. The difference between anyone is really the timing of the 'trend'

For example when I short a stock that is running to the moon I am thinking that it will retrace which is another way of saying 'I think this stock at this point will trend downward' at which point I cover and make a few bucks.

PS: reading marketsurfers post also tells you he is clueless also. ET is guru Kindercare pre-school.

 

[wickcity]

What are they getting ready to sell?

 

[nokomisjeff]

Quote from Millionaire:

Marketsurfer spouts this shit because he worships Niederhoffer who doesnt believe in Trend Following.

No matter what you think of Niederhoffer, he's a stand up guy who has balls the size of lampshades. He's also one of the smartest guys on the planet. It's easy for you one lot guys to criticize Vic, but until you've walked a mile in his shoes, it would serve you well to keep your mouth shut. He's forgotten more about the markets than 99.999% of the posters on this board will ever know.

Jeff

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Trend Following:

FYI, last year Niederhoffer's brother Roy made a fortune. Roy Niederhoffer's fund has been around forever, but I can't speak much to the strategy. Shorter term is all I know. That is not a defense of Victor Niederhoffer, just an observation.

roy was listed as the 14th highest earning manager of the year. it's quite impressive that 2 brothers who came from meager means, born without the silver spoon, both created such wealth in the most competitive game on earth.

when's the movie coming out??

regards, surf

 

[maxxy]

Richard Dennis (and the Turtles) were successful not because of trend following, but being able to perform under pressure and with a high degree of discipline.

They simply took a simple mechanical system where there are small losses about 80% of the time, but large winners 20% of the time and were able to execute it. The reason why most traders fail is because they simply do not have the discipline or patience to follow through with such systems.

The traders he selected came from backgrounds of discipline. I remember reading about one trader who came from the Air Force Academy which is not an easy school to get selected for (or an easy school to get through).

 

[Trend Following]

Quote from maxxy:

Richard Dennis (and the Turtles) were successful not because of trend following, but being able to perform under pressure and with a high degree of discipline.

They simply took a simple mechanical system where there are small losses about 80% of the time, but large winners 20% of the time and were able to execute it. The reason why most traders fail is because they simply do not have the discipline or patience to follow through with such systems.

The traders he selected came from backgrounds of discipline. I remember reading about one trader who came from the Air Force Academy which is not an easy school to get selected for (or an easy school to get through).

The Air Force grad was Erle Keefer.

Part of Dennis' selections however were not so particular as he noted Tuesday. He reminded everyone that he selected a "janitor". Mike Shannon was a drug dealer.

On the flip side, as you mention, guys like Keefer, Svoboda, Rabar, Parker, Shanks, etc. were very bright. It was an intereting mix.

 

[jem]

Quote from nokomisjeff:

No matter what you think of Niederhoffer, he's a stand up guy who has balls the size of lampshades. He's also one of the smartest guys on the planet. It's easy for you one lot guys to criticize Vic, but until you've walked a mile in his shoes, it would serve you well to keep your mouth shut. He's forgotten more about the markets than 99.999% of the posters on this board will ever know.

Jeff

he quite possibly is a very smart guy.
he also deserves accolades for his squash success.

But as a trader you have two possible conclusions.

He is a really big loser and a dumb trader (in which case I guess he could be a stand up guy with big balls) -

Or, he knew that his trading program is destined to blow up - therefore by embarking on it - he is one of the worlds least moral sobs and perhaps even a fraud.

I see know other possible conclusions. Perhaps you could enlighten me. I could walk ten miles in his shoes and still not see it differently.


Perhaps you could explain how he could have blown up with others money multiple times without being considered a dumb trader? Did he realize he was taking huge, why not? If he knew he was eventual going to blow up, why was he taking in others money?

How many times do you have blow before you acknowledge that sometimes the market moves in one direction more quickly than your large balls can handle.


You really can't have it both ways.

"I am smart and sincere but I lose my clients money? "

Which is it? stupid or fraud?

I really would welcome a third choice. I do not enjoy being a cynic.

 

[Daal]

What is Dennis doing these days?