Revisiting Acrary

game said:
Perhaps I do have some confirmation bias, but when you read interviews/books about the very best in this game, it appears that a large proportion of them operate from a framework of stunning simplicity. They don't talk a lot about edge either. They talk about principles and the need to align oneself with these principles.
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I think: Those profound principles, the correct interpretations of these subtle principles, and the associated know-hows for aligning oneself with them are All 'hard-to-find' Edges, aren't they? lol
 
OddTrader said:
I think: Those profound principles, the correct interpretations of these subtle principles, and the associated know-hows for aligning oneself with them are All 'hard-to-find' Edges, aren't they? lol
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My post wasn't about semantics. Generally speaking, when people refer to edge (at least here on ET), there is a connotation about it being something esoteric, hard to find, etc. Perhaps some of those who are successful feel the need to make it sound difficult. This is no surprise, as the same tendency exists in Religion and Academics.

This creates a culture of searching for tactics and tools rather than expending effort in understanding the market.

My point wasn't about whether aligning oneself with principles is easy or hard or whether they are subtle and profound. They may or may not be.

The understanding that one is on a sailboat may encourage the explorer to stop rowing the boat with his hands. Such an understanding may actually encourage him to expend his energies on learning how to unfurl the sails. He may then start noticing the phenomenon of 'wind'. Hell of an 'edge'.

This does not mean that it will all be smooth sailing with never a storm. But hey, we are at least out of the harbor and on the high seas.

I believe this was what Acrary realized and shared with us.
 
game said:
My post wasn't about semantics. Generally speaking, when people refer to edge (at least here on ET), there is a connotation about it being something esoteric, hard to find, etc. Perhaps some of those who are successful feel the need to make it sound difficult. This is no surprise, as the same tendency exists in Religion and Academics.

This creates a culture of searching for tactics and tools rather than expending effort in understanding the market.

My point wasn't about whether aligning oneself with principles is easy or hard or whether they are subtle and profound. They may or may not be.

The understanding that one is on a sailboat may encourage the explorer to stop rowing the boat with his hands. Such an understanding may actually encourage him to expend his energies on learning how to unfurl the sails. He may then start noticing the phenomenon of 'wind'. Hell of an 'edge'.

This does not mean that it will all be smooth sailing with never a storm. But hey, we are at least out of the harbor and on the high seas.

I believe this was what Acrary realized and shared with us.
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Good stuff.
 
dbphoenix said:
In 1936, British economist John Maynard Keynes gave the best description of the stock market I've ever heard. He said stock market investors are like judges in a beauty contest. But the idea of this beauty contest is not to pick the prettiest girl, but rather to pick the girl that all other judges will think is the prettiest.

This simple metaphor is profound because it reveals the truth: For all of our study of the economy and companies, it is subjective perception -- not objective reality -- that sets stock prices.

And it's perplexing because, as Keynes pointed out, all of the judges are fully aware of the true nature of the contest and act accordingly. Each judge knows that he's a player in an fabulously complex game of psych and double-psych, an infinite regress of figuring out what the other guy is thinking you're thinking he's thinking you're thinking he's thinking, and so on and so on ...

-- Don Luskin​
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I just realized that this above quote by Keynes is a brilliant answer to the question 'What is Technical Analysis?' or 'Does Technical Analysis work?'.
 
game said:
I just realized that this above quote by Keynes is a brilliant answer to the question 'What is Technical Analysis?' or 'Does Technical Analysis work?'.
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I am not sure who you are trying to convince.
 
Ten years ago and further back I designed complex systems cause I thought wrong, I wanted to beat the Professionals, I thought that is how the game is played to make profits. Cause of medical reasons, I had to radically change to KISS systems as I no longer have speed, hands shake and recent memory comes and goes, but KISS systems simply do far better. And beating the Pro's is all wrong, whether very Long term or Scalping, I just coat-tail them. BTFD
 
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