Reversal Shorts - Top in

jazzsmn said:
Also shorted Crude Oil today. .... Short 63.52 stop 66.17 & closed Longs Friday. ..... here

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/crude-oil.326772/
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Re: crude oil rally from Dec 2018.

I'm obviously viewing this as a bear rally but its also possible my short is jumping the gun. Here's why. ..... 1H .. wave b ended 2/11/19, wave 1 ended 3/8/19, wave 3 ended 4/23/19. So current drop with trendline break could be wave 4. If so, we have a higher rally top yet to come.

Leaving it as-is for now. Stop is in place anyway so no worries. If Crude does go higher, I would expect 67-69. Suspicion came in due to RSI(21) Trendline from 11/30/18 halted the drop perfectly with big bounce. If RSI(21) crosses above 60, I'll kiss the shortie goodbye and take the loss and prepare for a new rally high to short again.
 
Tell me why...I'll tell you first...any China deal will be weak at best or squashed shortly before the Orange one calls it null and void. I still want to hear your reasoning, because...god help me...I value your opinion.
 
volpri said:
Now if we look at a daily chart we see what is called a small PB bull trend. Over 80 daily bars of SPB TREND. Price is staying well above the ema (gaps..gaps..and more gaps between low of bars and the EMA. So, price is staying, for the most part well above the ema. PB’s are small and staying above the ema except in two areas on the chart.These types of trends are actually some of the strongest trends there are. Volatility can be low but institutions are relentlessly buying up every pb. We may see 30, 40 or even 60 point pb that takes price down to or thru the Ema but even so it looks too strong for any pb to be more than a minor reversal on the daily chart.

However, all SPB trends, sooner or later end, and this one has over 80 bars and most are bullish bars or sequences of bullish bars. There are very few sequences of bear bars. More larger bull bars than bear bars so daily range expansion is bullish. So far no bear strenght has revealed itself on this daily chart.

When we do in fact see a major reversal it will probably be a lower high major reversal after a southern BO thru of the Ema. But at the moment I don't see that happening in the next few days so I remain bullish on the day chart.

View attachment 201648
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See what I am talking about on SPB trend on this daily chart. So what happened in the next session, which was today? The first chart is a daily chart of today. The second chart is a 5 min chart of today’s intraday PA.

Well the pb went down to 2926 then trading through the EMA as described above, albeit on THE 5 min TF (breaching EMA explained yesterday ...before the fact..ROFLMAO) then reversed back up making a new high at over 2956. These SPB bull trends are actually very strong trends and in the explanation on the daily chart in my previous post made yesterday you got all the reasons why I was bullish yesterday, for today, on the daily chart. You might want to read the entire post of mine that I am referencing here.

Here is first the daily chart of today and then a 5 minute chart showing a BO south of the EMA (on 5 min TF) which was but a minor reversal on the daily chart. The PB could have even gone through the EMA on the daily chart (as explained in yesterday’s post) but didn’t. There is still a gap between low of daily bar and the EMA.

Still very bullish on day chart.

DCD1418C-4642-4701-AC2A-5602502CFABF.jpeg


2BB02FF4-0B0D-4294-98E1-DB61B99D8EE3.jpeg
 
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jazzsmn said:
Re: crude oil rally from Dec 2018.

I'm obviously viewing this as a bear rally but its also possible my short is jumping the gun. Here's why. ..... 1H .. wave b ended 2/11/19, wave 1 ended 3/8/19, wave 3 ended 4/23/19. So current drop with trendline break could be wave 4. If so, we have a higher rally top yet to come.

Leaving it as-is for now. Stop is in place anyway so no worries. If Crude does go higher, I would expect 67-69. Suspicion came in due to RSI(21) Trendline from 11/30/18 halted the drop perfectly with big bounce. If RSI(21) crosses above 60, I'll kiss the shortie goodbye and take the loss and prepare for a new rally high to short again.
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Guess that pencil has an eraser eh? Why not just X it out and go long? Maybe the coat hanger hook was crooked in the wrong direction?
 
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destriero said:
I am shorting all-in a day or two after any US-China trade deal.
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volpri said:
Guess that pencil has an eraser eh? Why not just X it out and go long? Maybe the clothes hanger hook was crooked in the wrong direction?
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Pencil with NO eraser did pretty good ...... :D


just one Trendline down from October 3 top gave TP on 1/4/19 = ONE near 3 month duration trade. Then close out S & go L on 1/4, then TP on TL break, almost 4 month trade, captured 64% of the move. All this without resorting to real-time view in the dominant trend direction = down. All this with just a pencil/ruler.

For bear rally, real time + often 2 trendlines are required due to one being just for the "b" component and a 2nd for the likely 4th wave component which is likely throwing me off here. If it does throw me off, a TL thru' low at 60 or wherever, when broken, will then give me the easiest short for the expected weekly train ride south.


First drop will be a rocket to 200-day at 59.82. Then a feeble bounce, then hammer another add to short, then sit back, wait for drop below 200-day, then possible goodbye kiss 200-day before fleeing south. Then in splendor & peace and quiet, place STOP above 200-day and go on holiday. One 20 second view per day is all that's required thereafter. Let the river do its work.

OUR work is done NOW. ..... in the bend in the trend. :D

Destination. Test low @ 26.14. Trendline/ruler will get you out there too with a 60-78% capture.
 
Re: Crude Oil trade outlined above:

This one upcoming trade can be retirement money for those who can throw away the realtime habit in the dominant trend. Stick to daily, let the sharp rallies build some kahunas bysitting tight & adding to S on rally tops by using what. Why of course, a TL. Keep TL extended thru' very first real coat hanger. When wave 4 comes along it will clear as day. Adjust TL if necessary. Then on next TLX, TP and go on holiday.


VALID only if Oct 3rd top is Top. If so, then current bear rally is wave 2 up. Next move as per MYexpectations is Wave 3 down aka the fastest oney making wave known to Man. Don't muck it up with real time.
 
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