First chart is monthly. Second is weekly. Yellow indicates how far below Ema it traded on both charts. Green highlight on weekly indicates the tight bull channel. Only three bear bars in that tight channel. So, on both charts we see a bull trend line break that goes far enough below the EMA that tells us bears can be strong when they exert themselves. At the moment we are testing the previous high. So it is a valid setup for a major trend reversal. However, all this is taking place in an expanding triangle and the top of the triangle has yet to be reached on either chart. In addition, the general context is bullish (note all the bars to the left). Because of these latter two things I assign a probability of 65% price will breakthrough the oct 2018 high and go on up. Nevertheless, I am cognizant that a major trend reversal setup is now present. However, I just think the bulls are stronger. So, I assign only a 35% chance that a major reversal will take place. But I would need to see double or triple tops..some sideways action...possible failed BO action and a good signal and entry bar to short this.
Such is the nature of trading. In either senario I want to see signal bars and entry bars in those TF’s before I would take a position, long or short. Now if we go to a 5 min chart I would be trading setups many times more while waiting on weekly and monthly setups to appear.
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