resumption of the bull market?

Quote from gharghur2:

According to Market Harmonics chart?
Who has been around for over 20 years.
Not until the reading got above 0.65 %
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It could be that I'm not interpreting the chart correctly...

If this is p/c .. more puts will give a high ratio, right?
and isn't it the case that more puts are bought (high extremes) when there is fear in the markets? which usually indicate a bottom. i.e., bullish

just looking at the chart (market harmonics chart), in march 2003, it spiked to 0.80 and that was a great bottom. The reading now looks closer to a market filled w/ complacency than one ready to takeoff.

Where am I wrong? Please let me know if I'm not interpreting the chart correctly.
 
Yes you are correct. Complacency is probably a better word to describe what's happening in the options arena.

I get sentiment readings that only occur at bottoms.
And speculator readings that are not confirming one or the other.

Maybe everyone is confused because the cyclicals are leading the charge? Or, the fact that the DOW bottomed in Jan, the SPX in Feb and the NDX in Mar.

The market is rising, my MMI is rising, the rally has been in impulse waves, and the DOW/SPX have broken 2 year trendlines. It looks good to me, don't have the answers to the other technicals.
 
Quote from gharghur2:

Yes you are correct. Complacency is probably a better word to describe what's happening in the options arena.

I get sentiment readings that only occur at bottoms.
And speculator readings that are not confirming one or the other.

Maybe everyone is confused because the cyclicals are leading the charge? Or, the fact that the DOW bottomed in Jan, the SPX in Feb and the NDX in Mar.

The market is rising, my MMI is rising, the rally has been in impulse waves, and the DOW/SPX have broken 2 year trendlines. It looks good to me, don't have the answers to the other technicals.
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Tony, I see you are very bullish and you make good arguments. What would make you nervous, right now? What would make you think the bull is dead..and if so what downside targets would you have.

Do you have any "alternate' EW reading that supports a possible top here?
 
An interesting article: "Technical Signals In The S&P" by Charles B. Schaap, also printed in "Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities" 2006 bonus issue.

It presents a multi-year analysis of the S&P using ADX / DMI, and concludes with: <table border="1" width="100%"> <td width="100%" bgcolor="#008080"><font color="#FFCC00" size="2"> <b>HEADING FOR A RETEST</b><br>
Market pundits love to speculate how high the market can go, but successful traders are less concerned with predictions than with preparation. Before they ask how high price can go, they first ask how low can it go. Key technical signals help the trader assess probabilities and manage risk.<br>
From these charts, ADX tells us that the monthly S&P trend is weak. The upward movement from 2003 represents an up retracement of the larger downtrend that started with the market bubble top in 2000. The DMI lines tell us that the S&P is directionally weak, while stochastics demonstrate bearish divergence.<br>
Currently, it appears that the S&P is headed down for a retest of the 2003 lows.</font></td>
</table>
 
Quote from gharghur2:

Hi bitstream

Looking this rally to hit the pivots: 11350, 2333, 1709 and 1316
Then a retest of yesterday/todays lows... or a bit lower
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After making new highs, negative divergences appeared in the RSI/MACD as I had anticipated, and the market indices began to sell off. This appears to be another quick sharp shakeout, like we had at the onset of the October - January 2005 intermediate term advance. These are the levels: NAZ 2294 and 2278, NDX 1671 and 1658, DOW 11220 and 11140, SPX 1295 and 1288. Expecting one of these two support levels to hold, and the intermediate term uptrend to resume either tomorrow or thursday. Thus far, the methodical market continues.
 
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