resumption of the bull market?
- Thread starter gharghur2
- Start date
Yes, you are correct. The R2K has been stronger than the NDX/NAZ/SPX/DOW, as it has extended it's advance from Oct without a sizeable correction. This is similar to the TRAN/NYA.
We have a short term target of 780 print for this advance.
You can see all the charts by going to my blog and clicking the chart link of the right side of the page...
http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroEW/
SHORT TERM:
On friday the employment report wreaked havoc in the Bond market, and with the weakness in Apple at the open, the four major indices all sold off in tandem a few minutes thereafter. The precipitous decline in the Treasury sector these past two weeks has done nothing but inhibit the stock market rally. The 30yr Bond has risen to over 5% yield for the first time since November 2004. It was 4.15% less than a year ago. Friday's decline created the typical extreme oversold RSI/MACD levels that occur during uptrends. And, there are positive divergences in the short term RSI/MACD momentum indicators on most indices. If you recall, we had these same readings at the NDX/NAZ wave 2 low, after the FED announced the rate increase a couple of weeks ago. After some weakness monday morning, I'm expecting the intermediate term advance to resume.
http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroew/
On friday the employment report wreaked havoc in the Bond market, and with the weakness in Apple at the open, the four major indices all sold off in tandem a few minutes thereafter. The precipitous decline in the Treasury sector these past two weeks has done nothing but inhibit the stock market rally. The 30yr Bond has risen to over 5% yield for the first time since November 2004. It was 4.15% less than a year ago. Friday's decline created the typical extreme oversold RSI/MACD levels that occur during uptrends. And, there are positive divergences in the short term RSI/MACD momentum indicators on most indices. If you recall, we had these same readings at the NDX/NAZ wave 2 low, after the FED announced the rate increase a couple of weeks ago. After some weakness monday morning, I'm expecting the intermediate term advance to resume.
http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroew/
I agree that the S&P looks a little more troubling than the NDX. And while there are some ultra-short-term oversold readings, I don't think the NDX is as oversold as the wave 2 low you referenced so I think it still pays to be cautious on the long side after a day like Friday. The key will be whether the oversold readings lead to a significant bounce. If they don't, this market could fall fairly hard. I view the S&P 500 as needing to close above about 1305 to get out of the danger zone. All of my cycle indicators on the S&P 500 all flashed "sell" on Friday as well so we'll see what happens!
Hi!
I didn't like the action on monday, as the markets failed to rally much. Noted that a defensive posture seemed necessary. Congrats! You were one day up on me.
Usually, I don't take one day selloffs too seriously. But when a market fails to rally from oversold conditions, that I take serious.
I didn't like the action on monday, as the markets failed to rally much. Noted that a defensive posture seemed necessary. Congrats! You were one day up on me.
Usually, I don't take one day selloffs too seriously. But when a market fails to rally from oversold conditions, that I take serious.