Record Low 30 Year Mortgage Rates!!! This is getting to be a joke.

Quote from slapshot:

This is exactly right. Take it from a person inside the mortgage industry (me).

Why the housing market will have a very difficult time recovering:

1) Before the banks got stupid and started giving 80/20 combo, zero down loans to people with 620 credit scores on Stated Income/Stated Assets, the Jumbo/Stated (verified assets) market was THE best performing portfolio with the lowest default rate of all for decades, even better than pure Full Doc.

This has always been the loan needed for high net worth, business-owning borrowers with complex taxes because it is tough to decipher their returns - but you could believe they made $10k or $20k per month if they Stated it because you could verify their $100k or $200k in cash assets. They would always put at least 10% down if not more on a $500k house - $50k+ is a lot of skin in the game.

And make no mistake, these are the buyers that support a housing market, not people flipping $80k or $120k houses over and over like we have now. We are selling the same house 3 times to equal the same revenue that used to flow through the mortgage finance pipeline. This is why "affordable housing" initiatives are market killers (the only thing that this Congress/President have tried to do to stimulate housing)

These are the high-end people that are almost completely frozen out of the housing market now. I have had several literal millionaire clients over the last 2 years that can't get a mortgage, but some loser with no money and a 3 month job's paystub can get a cheap FHA loan.

This is the main reason why housing prices continues to dive - because there is simply no one that can get a Jumbo Full Doc loan. People who can do Full Doc with a paystub and W-2's are few and far between and there are only so many rich cash buyers/investors.

If no one can get a Jumbo loan, then every house over the Conforming Full Doc limit of $417k is doomed to drop in value. And FHA loans only go to about $262,500 in most areas.

Congress, in their stupidity, as part of the Financial Responsibility Act, has now etched in concrete that all mortgages from now on must be in the tiny Full Doc box. They have doomed the housing finance system indefinitly.

You cannot lift a housing market (or any market) from the bottom up. The market is too heavy to lift that way. It has to be a stronger top of the price range pulling up the bottom. A rising tide lifts all boats. The lower end of the economic caste does not a healthy market make.

And that is what left-wing dumbfucks out there in the world don't understand. Why every giveaway and entitlement to the lower classes only serves to drag down the prosperous and does not creat anything but dependency and less future opportunity for the lower income folks.

Some good insight. Thanks for the post.
 
It's only a Joke to those who are not buying.

I have several Millionair Friends who have picked up Vaction spots in Miami for pennies. A few picked up Some property in Vegas in the last few months. Texas Land and some Commerical Spots are gems!

Dealing with local and regional banks, not multinationals. Locals and Regional are more than happy to lend right now, to the right person.

It's a blessing to those of US picking up Commerical Space and Land.

Keep'm going lower Mr. FED!

This is one of the best times ever to buy RE for asset protection. Only one other time like this, Great Depression, 1930s.

Prices are so depressed and your able to get a fix rate for under 4.2% soon to be near 3% or even lower than 3%? LOV'N IT!
 
Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

It's only a Joke to those who are not buying.

It's a blessing to those of US picking up Commerical Space and Land.

Keep'm going lower Mr. FED!

This is one of the best times ever to buy RE for asset protection. Only one other time like this, Great Depression, 1930s.

Prices are so depressed and your able to get a fix rate for under 4.2% soon to be near 3% or even lower than 3%? LOV'N IT!

But will you be lov'n your present purchases when prices bottom out?? Some are predicting the 10-year at 1%. What will that do to prices on the RE you recently dived-in upon?
 
Then if the fed succeeds in pumping up inflation the government will do the heavy lifting of paying off the mortgage for you. If not u still have the low rates.


Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

It's only a Joke to those who are not buying.

I have several Millionair Friends who have picked up Vaction spots in Miami for pennies. A few picked up Some property in Vegas in the last few months. Texas Land and some Commerical Spots are gems!

Dealing with local and regional banks, not multinationals. Locals and Regional are more than happy to lend right now, to the right person.

It's a blessing to those of US picking up Commerical Space and Land.

Keep'm going lower Mr. FED!

This is one of the best times ever to buy RE for asset protection. Only one other time like this, Great Depression, 1930s.

Prices are so depressed and your able to get a fix rate for under 4.2% soon to be near 3% or even lower than 3%? LOV'N IT!
 
Quote from 1prometheus:

Then if the fed succeeds in pumping up inflation the government will do the heavy lifting of paying off the mortgage for you. If not u still have the low rates.

While the consensus view... not necessarily correct.... depends upon the supply and affordability. IOW... we could get LOTS of inflation is all things EXCEPT housing.
 
Then if the fed succeeds in pumping up inflation the government will do the heavy lifting of paying off the mortgage for you. If not u still have the low rates.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Maybe..... It's a tricky situation but your are correct, I have locked in low rates as most of the people I know. Key thing is taxes. If Property tax's increase at a fast rate, then this could pose a problem. By fast I mean 100% year over year.


As far as what will "Lower" Rates do to current purchase Property? Nothing. As very few buyers are in the Market. The value of property in Texas is not going lower....it is actually stable and in some area's rising.

Property Value in Vegas and Florida, where Friends bought...they got in at such for such a low cost...property could collapse another 30% and they are ok.

It's a buyers market. Period. But the fact is, middle class has lost purchase power and will continue to. They made up the bulk of Homes/Condo's. The Commerical Property was over-extended and all leveraged "Firms", Banks, Investment Groups, are unwinding at pennies on the dollar. Even with 10 years at 1%, A bulk of purchasing power is out of the market. I doubt 10@ 1% will effect me at all.
 
Its been my experience that the best time to buy is when rates are high. If you buy when rates are scraping bottom, what do you do on your comm'l loan that needs to be rolled in 5 years and rates are up 300-500 basis points? Answer: bend over.
 
I doubt the best time to buy is when Rates are High.

Second, Fixed rates for long term already locked in for me. Do your homework, Fixed rates are back for Commerical Lending.

Third, pay it off before the end of the note..make extra payments...rather than put money in an CD, or Savings.

It's not rocket science. Using Property as a safe haven, I didn't invent the idea, I'm just following the smart money I deal with.
 
Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

I doubt the best time to buy is when Rates are High.

Second, Fixed rates for long term already locked in for me. Do your homework, Fixed rates are back for Commerical Lending.

Third, pay it off before the end of the note..make extra payments...rather than put money in an CD, or Savings.

It's not rocket science. Using Property as a safe haven, I didn't invent the idea, I'm just following the smart money I deal with.

In Japan, commercial property lost 90-95% of value. Residential lost, what? Not sure. Could be 80%. John Templeton suggested "RE's bottom will be 90% off of top".

Have we seen anything like that here so far?

Not arguing a position... just noting observations...
 
commercial property lost 90-95% of value:

You are correct on this and Japan had a lost generation, which we could as well.

Im still young, so this is a longer term play. But you have valid "What If' Concerns.

If we head the way of Japan, we will have a "revolution". And if that happens, our monitary system will collapse as in Russia.

If this is the case, I rather own property as "Foreign" interest will swoop in and bid up assets in America, which is happening right now. If we imploded even more, more Foreign money will move in.

The deconstruction of the US, will not destroy it but will put it up for sale, dirt cheap, comparied to the rest of the "Industrial Nations". I rather have "Things" I can unload and sell, than paper money that will be worth nothing in exchange for foreign currency.

Of course, odds are, the US will have a sweeping Change in NOV...which will set the country on a course away from falling.

So, I believe in the future..RE will be worth a shit tone more than what it is now for a few reasons. Few will own property in the Future. Inventory will be burned through, mostly foreign money buying up RE thus, getting rid of the excess. Inflation will hit our system with a vengence and Hard Assest will rise in value...for the next few decades.
 
Back
Top