Reasonable expectations for Trading

[Pekelo]

The best is to expect nothing.

I disagree. If you don't have expectations how do you know if you are succeeding or not? Trading is a business, so let's say you plan to run an icecream truck. Before you start the business I assume you would do the math and you would have some sort of expectation and minimum profit. The same with trading.

Also, you can't make a living on minimum profits. So you might make a small gain but is that really good enough for you to continue the adventure?

 

[schweiz]

I disagree. If you don't have expectations how do you know if you are succeeding or not?

Expectations are wishful thinking. You never know if you will succeed, that is proven everyday by the 99% that never make it. The only important thing is to analyze periodically your progress objectively and draw your conclusions.

Before you start the business I assume you would do the math and you would have some sort of expectation and minimum profit.

The first thing in trading you should do is start. You have no reference point to do the math on, you have to create a trading system first. In trading there are far more difficulties and whereas in business you can see how other people did, you can find nobody who will show how they exactly trade. So you cannot realistically make a prediction of your changes as everything depends of you. The fact that 99% never make decent money indicates already how small your chances are. All these people did the math, as you propose? And nevertheless 99% never made money. This proves that your statement is not realistic.

OP did not speak about starting a business. You do that only after you have proven to be consistently profitable. But the problem is to get first profitable, and at that point you should better have no expectation to avoid a big disillusion. Big disillusion can lead to huge mental problems or mental blocks.

 

[fan27]

@comagnum well said... lots of denial on my part.... I am asking myself some very serious questions. After 7 years on and off I have not been successful.. There are professional Fund Managers and such that know far more than I EVER will. With just a little research today I found numerous funds that ARE outperforming the market. One alone that has a 26% average return PER YEAR investing in US stocks (ticker is CTCAX),,,and is taking far far less risk than I am trading Index Futures and Options. "Collective 2" offers trader subscriptions and you can allow it to auto trade in your account. There are lots of options.

But forget the money for a second. I am asking bigger questions than that... like "is this too distracting" "do I want to do this anymore" "what else could I be doing with my time" also, do I want to stare at charts for hours and hours. Trading is distracting from my real career where I do make alot of money. "why not turn it over to professional managers" these are the questions

I have traded off and on since 2001. Had a stint back in 2003 where I went "full time". That lasted 18 months as my funds ran low and I was not making enough to keep me afloat. I went back to work for a company in 2005 and have been working/saving since then. I am currently working on my third iteration of my backtest/analysis software which is compelling enough that I hope to either be able to sell it commercially at some point or at a minimum use it to build a good track record. The point is there have been times when I have stepped back from trading to focus on other things. It does not have to be all or nothing. Whatever you decide, good luck to you!

 

[qxr1011]

I am asking myself some very serious questions. After 7 years on and off I have not been successful..

one thing must be learned after seven years : its time already to stop asking forum and to keep looking the answers on your own

 

[qxr1011]

but what do you feel is a realistic % return on investment per year from trading? 10%. 20%, 100%? what?

you confusing the rate of return with the expectation from the trading (the method and yourself)

 

[qxr1011]

Expectations are wishful thinking. You never know if you will succeed, that is proven everyday by the 99% that never make it. The only important thing is to analyze periodically your progress objectively and draw your conclusions.



The first thing in trading you should do is start. You have no reference point to do the math on, you have to create a trading system first. In trading there are far more difficulties and whereas in business you can see how other people did, you can find nobody who will show how they exactly trade. So you cannot realistically make a prediction of your changes as everything depends of you. The fact that 99% never make decent money indicates already how small your chances are. All these people did the math, as you propose? And nevertheless 99% never made money. This proves that your statement is not realistic.

OP did not speak about starting a business. You do that only after you have proven to be consistently profitable. But the problem is to get first profitable, and at that point you should better have no expectation to avoid a big disillusion. Big disillusion can lead to huge mental problems or mental blocks.

very well !

 

[qxr1011]

you confusing the rate of return with the expectation from the trading (the method and yourself)

as for the expectation

there is only one expectation for the trader - to live off trading his own money

for most people and their methods (including so called fucking professional traders) it is completely unreasonable expectation

 

[SimpleMeLike]

You can make that amount in a Day. -- and you don't need a huge million dollar, or $100,000, initial trading account size.
(...i can sense you, and alot of other people on ET, salivating~ right now,)

Well, I am trading 1 contracts right now, not sure how I can make $1K in a day. I think I most I made the past 3 months in a day was like $700. i was not planning to scale up until my initial account double.

What is your suggestions?

 

[Handle123]

.... Trading is a business, so let's say you plan to run an icecream truck. Before you start the business I assume you would do the math and you would have some sort of expectation and minimum profit. The same with trading.
...

I disagree. Most would sort of do the numbers with ice cream truck, and 95% will fail in the end, cause they did not consider risk first.

And people who go into trading, in the beginning do not look at trading as a business, including me when I started and one of countless reasons took me so long to become profitable. People might trade but in back of their mind they think in terms of investing and career change from the job that provides family bread on the table and roof on their heads and they HATE WITH PASSION to do something else than work for the "man". Their expectations are unlimited with no idea of hours they will really put in and how much of their personality will change going down a crooked road. And if all you ever known is working for the "man", very hard of thinking of trading as a business, most brokers not going to help in that way, they don't know themselves as most of their wives won't let them trade.

You can accept, love and respect yourself while realizing that you’re not special, probably not even that remarkable, but so long as you have an edge, you can own your piece of happiness.

 

[lawrence-lugar]

What is your suggestions?

Trade the big O....Orgasmic Oprah Options.
As easy as 1 2 3.

With plain vanilla stock...you need a Huge-ass account to generate any reasonable money.
With futures, somewhat less.
With options, even less.

Good luck, and Mazal tov, and May the Farce be With You,
But more importantly, it's 2018...Make Trading and your Life Great Again...High-Five`

I've been couped up in my room and house for too long.
I need to go out and get some Starbucks and Sweet and Sour Beef.
I don't like online dating. I'm rather old-fashioned, I want to meet a woman randomly in person like some kind of romantic comedy.
I love the movie Green Card.