I was a little hurried making the post above and assumed 10 ES points, not 5. Still illustrative.
Reasonable expectations for Trading
- Thread starter John9999
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Someone said ......... you cant do better than 12% long term, GS doesn't even do that. As if that limits everyone else, to 12%. LOL No disrespect to GS.
If you search through a CTA database you will see that very few have RORs >50% over any 5 year time frame, and the vast majority of the best traders really thin out at about 35% or better ROR in any 5 year time frame.
Those that have done a ton of work on risk mgmt have conclude that a sustained ROR >50% is likely to blow up at some point. That does not mean a retail trader can't have a year or two of tipple digit ROR - not so uncommon. However, sustaining that >50% ROR is highly unlikely to all but a rare few.
Most retail traders are in complete denial about draw downs - the best performers on record have all been under water about a quarter to a third of the time. The other thing their margin-to-equity is typically well below 30% - a far cry from you typical retail trader.
Those that have done a ton of work on risk mgmt have conclude that a sustained ROR >50% is likely to blow up at some point. That does not mean a retail trader can't have a year or two of tipple digit ROR - not so uncommon. However, sustaining that >50% ROR is highly unlikely to all but a rare few.
Most retail traders are in complete denial about draw downs - the best performers on record have all been under water about a quarter to a third of the time. The other thing their margin-to-equity is typically well below 30% - a far cry from you typical retail trader.
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GE has done better than 50%;
50% drop/52 weeks.LOL. But I don't exspect it to hit zero, but not a prediction, not bank insured-may lose value. I think Carl Ichan has average about 50%, but that was his fund + rather than sell in 2008, he gave his investors money from another fund, rather than sell. Then years after that he closed his fund, explaining he did not want to go thru that again
@comagnum well said... lots of denial on my part.... I am asking myself some very serious questions. After 7 years on and off I have not been successful.. There are professional Fund Managers and such that know far more than I EVER will. With just a little research today I found numerous funds that ARE outperforming the market. One alone that has a 26% average return PER YEAR investing in US stocks (ticker is CTCAX),,,and is taking far far less risk than I am trading Index Futures and Options. "Collective 2" offers trader subscriptions and you can allow it to auto trade in your account. There are lots of options.
But forget the money for a second. I am asking bigger questions than that... like "is this too distracting" "do I want to do this anymore" "what else could I be doing with my time" also, do I want to stare at charts for hours and hours. Trading is distracting from my real career where I do make alot of money. "why not turn it over to professional managers" these are the questions
But forget the money for a second. I am asking bigger questions than that... like "is this too distracting" "do I want to do this anymore" "what else could I be doing with my time" also, do I want to stare at charts for hours and hours. Trading is distracting from my real career where I do make alot of money. "why not turn it over to professional managers" these are the questions
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Do you mean "did not want" or "cannot" or "not able to"? How do you know whether someone does not want, unless you were that person?
This is not a prediction %%
This is not a prediction %%
There are money manager that beat 80% of the money manager. Their names contains the word: Index.
yes,,, these are my thoughts for me... I realize this a forum for traders,,,and I am talking about turning it over to managers/traders to do for me
take a major index for a N years. Compute (pricenow/PriceNyearsago)^(1/N)-1. Report the number.