Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.

Quote from cfd_trader:

I don't think so, matter of fact here's a couple of abstracts:


in trading simulation we couldn't care less about cryptography. In fact a RNG algo tweaked towards cryptography is most probably not the most efficient for our purpose (randomness vs execution speed).


and finally, most importantly:


I'd personnally hardly call that a negative opinion... :)
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Alternatives

The Mersenne Twister algorithm has received some criticism in the computer science field, notably by George Marsaglia. These critics claim that while it is good at generating random numbers, it is not very elegant and is overly complex to implement. Marsaglia has provided several examples of random number generators that are less complex yet which he claims provide significantly larger periods. For example, a simple complementary multiply-with-carry generator can have a period 1033000 times as long, be significantly faster, and maintain better or equal randomness.[5][6]
 
Quote from Whisky:

Alternatives

The Mersenne Twister algorithm has received some criticism in the computer science field, notably by George Marsaglia. These critics claim that while it is good at generating random numbers, it is not very elegant and is overly complex to implement. Marsaglia has provided several examples of random number generators that are less complex yet which he claims provide significantly larger periods. For example, a simple complementary multiply-with-carry generator can have a period 1033000 times as long, be significantly faster, and maintain better or equal randomness.[5][6]
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exactly and that is why a coin toss on the sun rising tomorrow is a 50/50 call over 4T events.

did you know that the sun never rises, but the earth merely rotates.

little wonder that ES trading confuses most people, they still cling to the belief that the earth is flat.

sosueme
 
Quote from Mike805:

Yeah, there is one that is fairly well known, but, its not necessarily based on anything emotional; the 10am PST reversal is one given some simple conditions. I suspect this one is due to traders getting trapped or something like that... I think Stocks and Commodities mag did a test on it 6 months or so ago and they probably explain it better. If you modify it slightly, its tradeable, but, you'll have some long DD's. News events and FOMC are usually good times too.

What I personally look for is anything that happens too fast. Stocks/Futures that rise to quickly or fall too quickly and I toss my coin at those points so to speak. My edge is about 52% across all my systems in real life and I average about 5k-7k trades a year - my most profitable system is at 40% hit rate with 4-1 payoff. Its done very well on the 30 year and the ES this year. Lately I've been moving towards lower hit rate systems as I find them more fun to trade; a homerun versus a law of large numbers kind of thing.

FYI, the system I posted can actually be modified to produce a decent edge (not good enough for my tastes, hence my posting it here), but, its a good starting point for a newb maybe. Always KISS...

IMO coin tossing at any price&time based extreme will be profitble... I don't feel the need to prove it, but, lets just say I do quite well with a 52% win rate :D
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The daily occuring "settlement" is significant.

It is not a precise time since it is a cummulative activity of the full range of the financial industry.

Smart money trades all the time and smart money definitely takes into account the bias introduced by settlement conditions, circumstances and situations.

Most traders have to deal with how any day unfolds. Market pace and volatility play an important role in the ATS look up tables.

Three major facets of trading are always at play: market status; market signals and the combination and weights of sentiment on all the statistical significant market fractals.

Anyone reading frequent and skilled traders can recognize the consideration given to these facets when examples are provided. For example there is another thread running now on TA evaluation as presented in various research papers and paper reviews of TA. Some posted themes evolve around prediction and others have taken prediction out of the TA picture.

In this thread, the status of markets has not even appeared in the picture in terms of dialogue. One very important aspect of market operating points is how changing from one operating point to another is processed scientifically.

I doubt if many observers and/or analysts are able to consider shifts in operating points and what the trading ramifications are. To come to understand that the market does not jump around takes a lot of reasoning. To finally be able to conclude that all choices but the inevitable choice have been successively eliminated as time passes is rarely understood. You can easily determine if a poster is even in the ball park or if he is operating on the basis of insisting upon having a predicting orientation.

There is little chance that any thread on any topic can get very far when threads are mostly dominated by lack of any awareness of these three facets.
 
Whisky, I guess one can always find a counter argument, and that's fine.

As far as running robust enough and fast simulations, MT is by and large a RNG of choice. Plus it's largely available.

Btw the scientist you refer to apparently has yet to prove that his RNG is indeed way better and faster.

Plus, let's see if you can find concrete information on how to code it, use it, etc... :)
 
Quote from cfd_trader:

Whisky, I guess one can always find a counter argument, and that's fine.

As far as running robust enough and fast simulations, MT is by and large a RNG of choice. Plus it's largely available.

The scientist you refer to apparently hayet that his rng is indeed way better
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I agree. They are both probably as good as a coin toss. But I don't intend to prove it.

In fact it seems the cry babies that insulted me first (first blood) are going to get away with banning me from the site by running to the site owner like what they are, as they can't take what they dish out. So probably my posts are numbered. I wish to thank the few that actually participated. I'm now just waiting for my execution on my limit order to GTFO here. It's now a coin toss that I will stay or go. :D

So be it. It is what it is.
 
Quote from Whisky:

I agree. They are both probably as good as a coin toss. But I don't intend to prove it.

In fact it seems the cry babies that insulted me first (first blood) are going to get away with banning me from the site by running to the site owner like what they are, as they can't take what they dish out. So probably my posts are numbered. I wish to thank the few that actually participated. I'm now just waiting for my execution on my limit order to GTFO here. :D

So be it. It is what it is.
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I hope you are not serious. As far as I am concerned, this has been one of the most thought-provoking threads on this forum and I thank you for starting it.

Joe.
 
Speaking of the Flat Earth Society.

Did you know that the man behind debunking “the earth is flat” theory was Guillermo Jerez, a sherry maker from Andalucia, southwest Spain.

The sherry business was bad in the late fifteenth century and he persuaded the El Rey (the King) to commission an Italian from Rapallo to sail west and prove that the world was indeed round.

The rest is history and El Rey soon became the wealthiest man on the planet.
But what was the inspiration for Guillermo’s actions you may well ask.


Well until Columbus’s epic adventure, sherry was always taken at 6pm every evening in small glasses befitting a midget.
After Columbus it was always 6pm somewhere on the planet at any given local time and sherry become the world’s first “sports drink” to be consumed morning, noon and night.

Guillermo’s business was saved, he married the prettiest girl in the village and lived happily ever after.

sosueme
 
Quote from Whisky:

I agree. They are both probably as good as a coin toss. But I don't intend to prove it.

In fact it seems the cry babies that insulted me first (first blood) are going to get away with banning me from the site by running to the site owner like what they are, as they can't take what they dish out. So probably my posts are numbered. I wish to thank the few that actually participated. I'm now just waiting for my execution on my limit order to GTFO here. It's now a coin toss that I will stay or go. :D

So be it. It is what it is.
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Noooooooooooooooooooo:eek:

I feel like this is the one of the only threads I've read on ET that has taught me anything of value. Noobs need this thread. Don't stop.
 
Coming from a loser like you who doesn't understand price action and can't trade, I'll take it as a compliment. :p
Quote from Whisky:

You will be called DOUCHE2 from this point on. How do you like that?.
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