Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.
- Thread starter Whisky
- Start date
Your request for fairness is not on the table. The OP has pointed out that fairness is not being moderated. In dealing with the bottom line in trading, there is a lot of rationality lacking.
My 8 year old is trading and is winning on 2 out of 3 trades. The OP will not be able to process this nor understand that the wins are larger than the losses at this time. Later, after a few levels of added sophistication, this thread may end like a sponsor's thread ends.
There is a possibility that, as the proofs are offered, that the prooofs will pass over the heads of the possible readers.
Lets say you get beyond tabbing up and down days and begin to deal with "how much and do weighting. When you do you find out two things: the opposite is true and you find out that during non RTH's is when you say what you said is true (on a weighted basis).
You can accept of reject my corrections to your expression; that is your choice.
If being right is more important a person tends to learn in one direction. If being most profitable is more important, a person keeps an open mind to things that are new to him.
the result of processing information is that a person's minds grows. The tendancy in the mind's growing is towards being wiser. The tendancy for some people is to get stuck mentally there is one reason why this happens: they make poor unreasoned choices.
Intuition is not what makes a trader better; differentiation is what makes a trader better.
Here so far, we gotten to the beginning of examining market sentiment. If a person can discover the market snetiment varies, fractal by fractal, he gets further into becoming differentiated and sensitive to what the market does as it operates.
At some point (see Acurary's great thread on his reversal of thinking) it may be possible for a person to examine things logically instead of statisitically (See mandelbrotset's references in this thread for barking up the wrong tree). this is a cardinal choice.
Is market sentiment on any given fractal determined statisitcally or logically.
The 8 year old game is using logic. The child reverses on troughs and 2 out of 3 times the child wins by fipping a 50 -50 coin.
By paying the OP's required topic, we had to flip coins to begin. Next we found out one trade a ay omitted four impotant factors. Now he sees two football games, called long and short, being played concurrantly. he now sees just one level of market sentiment swinging incrementally back and forth through his induction.
One could look at the sum of this and include your thinking and find out that just beginning to "see" the market s difficult.
Redneck says a self constructed mantra to begin each day. Why? As he explains, his mind is doing things he wants to avoid. He know he needs to see what is going on but his normal thoughts preclude this and he has to shut them down if he can.
I will be stoppng the 8 year old to stop flipping coins and begin to think about just what the market is "telling" her, all based on deduction done by someone other than she. she is jst learning to trade to compound 50 cent pieces to have enough money to go to college.
This is the nut to crack.
Empircal is the inductive route and the binary principle is incompatible with empiricism. Two ideas come ito a space and clash.
Tradezones says lets do more empiricism using standard measures and see who is best or wrong. He is up to 3 ,000 such tests. So far about 1% pass his test. He has proven top my satisfaction, statistically speaking, that empiricism doesn't work.
By using deduction and a binary principled system (PVT), the common Sharpe ratio exceeds 60 (as determined by Worden Bros staff using their logic Blox on years of subprime data.) The Sharpe ratio of 60 is at one end of Traderzone's distribution.
Any stat test will show a very strong corrolation of sentiment and the binary principle. Since it does, maybe sentiment is a possibility for successful trading. Joe Ross feels that there is no sentiment 85 percent of the time. The football argument is out of bounds for Joe Ross. The reason Joe screws this up is because he feels as does the OP that only two games are being played.
The 8 year old uses three games meaning the child trades on the fastest observable fractal and has one fractal slower and one fractal faster for guidance. The slower one shows the sentiment binary context and the faster shows the child how to carve the volume trough turns.
Soon the 8 year old game will drop coin flipping and begin to use three adjacent fractals to take all the profit segments on the middle fractal, meaning 20 to 40 profit segments a day. 40 ticks of profit will be given up in this process. We will start more slowly to get in the groove (12 to 15 trades a day).
Deduction does away with intuition, guessing the future, setting stops and setting targets. The reason why is that 8 year olds don't do this stuff if it is not needed. So the proofs for each of these four things not being needed will be done. Giving proofs of each item is how a deductive system is grown.
As of now, everyone can carryover from Friday to the open the BBT, tape, traverse and Channel status. This provides four sentiment levels all expressed deductively and with 100% certainty and in a binary manner regardless of Joe Ross and those that think inductively.
What this means is that the 8 year old child knows the next four trades she/he will do to complete the briefest pattern of P, V movement observable. Knowing the next four trades means all that is left is timing them to extract the whole segment of profits. The child will replace the flipping and just do two types of timing instead of one type of timing.
Timing means doing an exit followed immediately by an entry on the opposite side. This is a reversal trade.
For those that wish to look at the way it works, consult the four calls I made in advance before an open and consult the print of an open that shows the timing of such typical calls. Look at the volume annotations (troughs and the new volume tool of the 8 year old (peaks)) to see how the timing works down to the one tick level charts posted previously.
I still have to post the step by step instructions for doing the exits and entries. So far it involves three steps in sequence and only using troughs. When risk (coin flipping) is eliminated, just rules are used. In trading one of the goals is risk elimination. The tool for risk elimination is knowing the sentiment in the present. Sentiment is determined deductively using nested fractals. This is counterintuitive to CW types of trading.
I will do this as soon as the OP eliminates coin flipping or random data sets from his initial scheme.
I have to agree with the OP -- I don't understand a word you're saying
Thanks for in the input, RC.
Studying binominal distributions and their patterns are key to understanding how the market operates and ultimately are important for being able to take your trading beyond the 50/50 level, which is what Whiskey is trying to demonstrate here.
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But as we can see, jack hershey is derailing yet another great thread with his absolute nonsense, and the only thing missing are the attendant ass fairy's who prompt him with idiotic question after moronic query to keep posting his bullshit, so I'm way past done with this thread.
Good trading to you in the coming week ... I can assure you, neither jack hershey nor any of his <strike>minions</strike> shit eating ass fairy's will be.
I have a small issue with your claims: Last time I checked the Forbes 400, your name wasn't on the list. Care to clarify this small issue?. I'd like to clarify that before I embark in learning a new language.
Can anyone translate and summarize what you attempt to communicate?. I mean a chart, a picture, an english sentence, a Feynman Diagram. Something intelligible for God's sake!.
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
Thank you, thank you, thank you!
You're welcome.
The OP asked a fair question and I responded. It was a nice day of trading (for me). I posted some commentary as the day unfolded on another site. Folks see things differently. You call it "trading porn". I would classify it (by # of trades and % of ATR) as intermediate level SCT trading. Nowhere near the expert level which Jack speaks of.
Long day at the cider mill with the family. All the fresh air was good but has me sleepy this evening.
Good trading to you and have a nice evening.