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Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.
- Thread starter Whisky
- Start date
Quote from jack hershey:
That was 120% humor. By happenstance, a few times, I did see posts that got deleted. when I responded unexpectedly it was humorous to all concerned.
ET is a funny place. Here you see the OCD contingent keeping some kinds of moderators busy. Other moderators let these detractions remain.
I have had whole threads (started by others) deleted when moderators didn't feel the contributions outweighted selective deletions.
I made the tongue in check post just for comic relief.
I am on the deductive side of the argument. CW and the financial industry take the inductive side as a management position based on churning sales and commissions. This will never end.
What I like about my argu,emt is that is weed people away from ,e who want to make money as their singular opjective. Kere in this thread you get to see a moderator tell me I am full of shit and tell you he can trade and make mopney trading the way he is being mentored by someone he judges to be an expert. This is top drawer humor and of the 100's of people I have met like him, very few survive their persojnal irrationality to learn to trade.
My perspective, and those who trade with me, is that we enjoy ET as it is priceless.
Think about one of my phone calls. A guy just read a backtest on PVT, done worng and he lust had his first 100,000 day. Ir is a very funny place to be while at either end of that phone call. In vegas we have a fully booked, at cpacity day coming up. I won't be wearing a pin wheel cap and I will be wearing Tony Lama boots. All the participants can wear what they wish.
When a person breaks 1,000 a day trading on profits only I am just as glad to get the PM on that. Here, I have an 8 year old beginning to trade and stop flipping coins. A lot of people are smiling and see the humor of the deductive logic that gives a child such an "edge" by only trading dominant price moves.
Keep smiling.
I read 'all' of your posts - and didn't understand much of anything you said
Here's a little background on Jack:
Jack churns out demented, unsupported claims like this:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=912447&highlight=#post912447
http://groups.google.com/group/misc...a927db8ba840?hl=en&lnk=st&q=hershey+loses+24#
He also tried to BS his way out of yet more of his sinking stock picks that lost $22,000:
http://groups.google.com/group/misc...d/thread/981513b3a003f259/2db2e88d1407af42?hl
If you backtest his model of the price, volume relationship by buying the "0 to 7 turn" as described in "Tomorrow's Paper Today" and selling 5 days later, you'll get an equity curve like this:
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2014607>
Which looks eerily like the equity curve you get when you test his "rocket" methodology:
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1112121>
Kind of what you'd expect from someone who thinks stochastics is a leading indicator:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1302778&#post1302778
http://www.mediafire.com/?0ielxnmeiro
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2023032>
Ask Jack what happened to his promise to his former IBD group to turn $10,000 into $1 Million in 100 days and document it on ET:
http://www.mediafire.com/?1gi2qygm3yh
Some unfortunate newbies who get sucked in by Jack's pied piper routine start out ingratiating and actually believe Jack is giving away the "keys to the kingdom." But this one eventually came to his own conclusion that Jack is "nuts":
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1940582#post1940582
Jack churns out demented, unsupported claims like this:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=912447&highlight=#post912447
When in reality he LOST 24% in a trading contest and unsuccessfully tried to obfuscate his way out of it on Usenet:Quote from Grob109:
I do reach my goal of 3x H-L in ES as a practice.
http://groups.google.com/group/misc...a927db8ba840?hl=en&lnk=st&q=hershey+loses+24#
He also tried to BS his way out of yet more of his sinking stock picks that lost $22,000:
http://groups.google.com/group/misc...d/thread/981513b3a003f259/2db2e88d1407af42?hl
If you backtest his model of the price, volume relationship by buying the "0 to 7 turn" as described in "Tomorrow's Paper Today" and selling 5 days later, you'll get an equity curve like this:
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2014607>
Which looks eerily like the equity curve you get when you test his "rocket" methodology:
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1112121>
Kind of what you'd expect from someone who thinks stochastics is a leading indicator:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1302778&#post1302778
Of course Jack tries to blame the failure of his "methods" on the backtester, so listen to him crow about this trade (before it went bad) in his own words:Quote from jack hershey:
I see the Stoch 5, 2,3 fast line (blue for me) go up through 50%. It is a leading indicator of price and it tells me one thing only. Sentiment has shifted from Distribution to Accumulation.
http://www.mediafire.com/?0ielxnmeiro
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2023032>
Ask Jack what happened to his promise to his former IBD group to turn $10,000 into $1 Million in 100 days and document it on ET:
http://www.mediafire.com/?1gi2qygm3yh
Some unfortunate newbies who get sucked in by Jack's pied piper routine start out ingratiating and actually believe Jack is giving away the "keys to the kingdom." But this one eventually came to his own conclusion that Jack is "nuts":
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1940582#post1940582
Quote from Whisky:
I have a small issue with your claims: Last time I checked the Forbes 400, your name wasn't on the list. Care to clarify this small issue?. I'd like to clarify that before I embark in learning a new language.
Can anyone translate and summarize what you attempt to communicate?. I mean a chart, a picture, an english sentence, a Feynman Diagram. Something intelligible for God's sake!.
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
Thanks for the fascinating thread on the concept of binomial distribution, presented in a fun, "real-life" fashion Whisky.
Despite the usual suspects presenting their asinine though processes for all to see, the thread maintains itself at a high conceptual level, and perhaps these links can add to process.
Coin Tossing - Probability Theory
Coin Tossing - Probability Table
Coin Tossing - Probability Simulator
Good trading
Thanks. Try to behave. Give Jack some rope. Some of his ideas MIGHT be better than a coin toss. Or that's what the odds would indicate.
Quote from david666:
No no, why dont you prove it DOESNT bring in at least one extra tic per day? Why dont you backtest all of these suggestions, come back and tell us what increased your expectancy?
I prefer forward-testing of self-evident truths, but don't let that stop you from backtesting anything you like.
Quote from david666:
now, time to get serious.
Here is the problem, the market is not 50/50 as a coin flip is. The fact is there is a small edge towards closing higher than the open on any given day. This means there are more up days than down days meaning your coin flip is not a good representation.
In fact, you would be better off going long at the market open everyday than using just a coin flip.
My suggestion, look at the prior day action, calculate the percentage from the open to the close. Calculate the average percentage for the past 1000 days. If the day in question has a higher percentage than the threshold, take opposite direction trade.
You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.
Quote from dtrader98:
Of course you can. If you ever take the time to empirically study simple probabilities, you would realize the market is a bent coin (from a binary perspective). Predict heads every day and you will beat a fair coin.
Big problem that no one seems to notice is that markets returns are not binary to begin with. Therefore, you are starting out with a poor analogy to begin with.
Which would you prefer?
99 winning Coin tosses and one loss that netted 1 dollar?
or
99 losing coin tosses and one win that netted 10 dollars?
Before you waste any more time on the thread concept, I suggest you all think a bit about this perplexity, because it will hopefully give you a bit of enlightenment.
Are you suggesting I change coins?. Can you clarify your suggestion into objective practical rules that will yield objective entry, exit and sizing orders?
Quote from ehorn:
...
Can you further translate that diagram and/or all of previous Jack's posts into objective english buy, sell, size rules ready for execution in the market? Preferibly that a computer or an 8 year old would understand. I can observe that chart is of a shorter timeframe and therefore subject to a lot more commissions and slippage costs, but will cut you some rope. Thanks.